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Are any Boards totally honest with their shareholders? Notwithstanding reporting regulations there is still plenty of leeway for the best ones to control the narrative for the benefit of the company and the the worst ones to control the narrative for the benefit of themselves.

Reconcile the benefit issue with;
Mr Gilby has agreed to waive up to 75% of his current contracted rate. The amount waived will not be payable by the Company at a future date. Mr Rowland has agreed to waive up to 40% of his current contracted rate. The amount waived will not be payable by the Company at a future date. Mr Cloonan has agreed to waive up to 50% of his current contracted rate. The amount waived will not be payable by the Company at a future date.

Appiamma is spot on with the two ends of the spectrum on posters here. For me every board should have what we have here. Won't be the flavour of the month but both provide legitimate points to ponder.

As far as the honesty of the Board in relation to the raise for the power lines I'm lost. From the relevant announcement, 'The Placing Shares are not being made available to the public. ' means we, unless you were part of the placing , have no understanding as to what the investors where told regarding the timetable for use of those funds. Additionally, 'Tlou has decided to proceed with construction of the grid connection once the 10MW PPA is signed...' means the Board reconsidered the timing. Isn't that what Boards are supposed to do, reconsider if it is prudent to do so and does that adjusted timing in any way significant alter our prime money making course?

So was it prudent for the Board to adjust its stance? Who knows but until I know I certainly wouldn't be in a position to call them dishonest.

@Bladey, I did originally have the placing shares running out around next Monday based purely upon volume since the SP reached the placing price. My view on wider issues affecting our SP is because the sell of the placing shares have, for my mind been well controlled over a period of time around the 3.1 mark. The global market gets a jolt yesterday and that coincides with an unusual percentage drop in our SP. We then pick back up again this morning as indeed did the LSE. May just be coincidence or perhaps we are both right. The holders of those placing shares will have seen the wider market sentiment and it's not unreasonable to consider that they responded.

I will be adding more at the end of the week if all is good elsewhere.

Bladey thanks for your thoughts. I too think we are in for a choppy few days. We need to see how the Evergrande crisis plays out in China. It created/is creating jitters and is I believe the reason for our drop yesterday. If the global market is happy with the way that's played I wouldn't be surprised to see sentiment reverse across the market and give a sharp boost to stocks. I don't see the Fed, in their meetings over the next two days, causing issues with everything that is going on, but for me it's gonna take a week to see what's in store for the general economy.

The rig was late getting to Jadestone and the completion of the H6 drill encountered some problems. That added up to a one month delay in completing the original drill and workovers of Skua 10 & 11. The programme was due to end in September so was pushed back to the end of October. I think we are still on course for taking delivery as expected by the beginning of November.

“A power plant can take 18 months just in discussions and moving into infrastructure has been slow, but it’s one good growth area, which we feel we are losing out on,”

They see power as a growth area for investment. They have £4.3billion in assets at their disposal. They have by their own words FOMO. They have money invested in TLOU that they haven't taken out.

Do they invest in TLOU's infrastructure to realise their initial investment?

Thanks for the link MM.

DID

MrM, You're right about isolates. The similarities here, and I'm not invested at this stage in the other company I mentioned, are that both companies are coming up against a government. What can the companies do about that. Nothing short of legal action which in our case wouldn't fit because there is no onus on the Bots Gov. to hurry any process along unless timelines are set by statute. In this case the PPA deliberations/timelines aren't. So that's that. We either wait or shut up shop. Fortunately we won't be shutting up shop, unfortunately that means we have to wait.

Brad, I keep popping in to read the BB and it was a surprise to see you voicing negatives here. It's good to see you doing that mate, good for your health, gets it out rather than trying to store it. Let's face it the negatives are on top here at the moment. Get the good news and there will be no holding you back on the positives though. Hope you're keeping okay.

Underneath the sniping there is a good balance of views here and I reckon a bit of good news and you would all buy each other a pint.

Firstly if TG was unable to perform his duties this would be reportable to shareholders as was the case with his previous year off back in 2016. It has not been reported so we can do without instigating plucked from the air rumour. He is clearly carrying on his duties accordingly.

Regarding the general level of anxiety regarding the PPA/moving forward that's entirely understandable. How has TG not secured the PPA yet? The answer lies in the announcement of six weeks ago, '.........the timing is unfortunately outside Tlou's control.'

Look at BEM's work in Sweden for an understanding of what that means. They've been waiting for 4 years for a European country to pass a mining licence through pure ineptitude of the government despite all the hoops having been jumped through. It's not simply about Africa its about governments. Poor governments. For me TG is the same person he was when I first invested, he was a winner then and I'll only chalk him up as a loser if this folds.He's done his bit to keep costs down while we wait. His previous endeavours do seem like sprints now though and this time both he and us have found ourselves in an unwanted marathon. Hopefully the 'negotiations in relation to both the PPA and funding' have advanced so significantly we can put this ordeal to bed soon.

'Once the first 10MW is in place, the project can rapidly expand.' Now that would be good.

I've been interested in BEM for a number of years but there has never been the right time to jump in. I don't know the ins and outs here just yet so any help on why the company gone down the legal route after all these years would assist? I thought a legal challenge was mooted a couple of years back. May be wrong there. However there will come a stage whereby the government has nowhere left to turn and with the UNESCO deliberation reaching its head I'm not sure they have many options left before their lack of decision making becomes a legal threat to them. There is a significant resource here the promise of its extraction would see a substantial SP increase. I'm looking to build a position.

And the second of the two signs I've been looking for is now showing itself in that there is an instant quote to sell a large amount, plus the movement away from the 3.10 channel being the other. sign The expected buying pressure is now starting to materialise it seems..

MM99, I guess the people trading/investing here will do what they think best suits them. I've no quarrels as to anyone's strategy. I don't particularly agree with shorting but two things stand out for me and that is people shorting are also taking risks and secondly if a company can't stand up to shorting pressure is there a reason.

As far as ADV goes provided the company sticks closely to its own strategy and timelines and gets this first success away at Buffalo then it has a real chance of being one of the few really good oilers about. I don't predict 'bags' or prices on these boards but this could do very well short/medium/long term.

ATB

A director in Carnarvon (our JV partner)is clearly happy with the direction Carnarvon are going in and has just bought $31,000 worth of stock on the open market.

Our BoD have plenty of shares here with circa 7% of the company shares in their hands with a considerable number bought with cash in the April placing. Confidence all round it seems.

Positive - This is a drill with a 95% chance of success

Negative - This is a drill with 5% chance of failure.

Just like to balance out all the positivity guys;-)

Looks like Bladey called the breakout almost to the minute on Thursday. Must be something in these chart thingymabobs.

I had us down for another two weeks of trading in the channel.

Clearly Buffalo 10 is the engine that will power the future of this company.

It's trying to breakout but the test will be whether it drops back into that 3.10 channel by the end of the day and equally that there is ease of selling during these uplifts. Still reckoning on a couple of weeks more to clear the placing shares.

Also worth noting how RISC came by the 86% probability of development. It's a figure derived from higher percentage probabilities that when put together give a lower figure.

'Development is expected to proceed after appraisal provided:

1. the appraisal outcome is not worse than 1C (~95%),
2.acceptable commercial arrangements can be secured with facility (FPSO, MOPU, FSO) owners (95%),
3. the joint venture partners can secure development funding (95%).

RISC estimate the probability of development to be 86% (95%x95%x95%).

I tried working out where you thought the extra depth in oil column might be coming from Oiler but struggled so thanks for info.

Putting your posts and ST's together is this about right guys?

RISC supports the estimates modelled by Carnarvon.
However RISC also acknowledge that Carnarvon see small volume upside with our attic wells drawing oil from to the un-tapped areas to the south and east areas.
Additionally Oiler has highlighted the depth of the drill being deeper than analogous drills with potentially a much higher oil column than published.

Jadestone Energy is the current contractor for the Valaris JU-107 rig that will be drilling Buffalo and they are operating in our area of interest so gives an idea of the economic environment . They seem to have a similar strategy to ADV (albeit they are operators) with the following included in their H1 2021 results review published today ;

'Balanced portfolio through life cycle, but bias to producing assets and discovered resource able to be rapidly commercialised
— Highly cash generative'

Jadestone have a near 10k bopd, pay a dividend, have no debt and are seem to be very happy with their cash generation.
https://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/H1-2021-earnings-webcast-vf.pdf

Carnarvon have reiterated that at this stage, the timeframe for spudding the well is early November 2021.

They also stated the Valaris JU-107 was the rig used in Carnarvon’s Dorado-1 discovery back in 2018. As risk goes always a welcome sign that the parties have had a previous successful working relationship.
https://www.carnarvon.com.au/rig-contract-signed-for-buffalo-10-well-drilling-commencing-in-november-2021/