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dai, that fits in nicely with the view that the remaining placing shares are hitting the market in that tight channel. I think those sells have been managed well and while they are anchoring us at the moment they won't be here forever. It's been pretty relaxing not having price drop volatility with the unwinding .

So much positivity, remember though there's a 5% chance this will be a duster;-)

(I've put the winky eye in this time for those who struggle with litotes).

I'll give it three weeks from yesterday ST. Placing shares then gone (to PI's) and I would guess a majority those PI's will be holding for significant returns. So the placing shares drying up scuppers the supply we have had, the demand doesn't have to increase anymore than we have at the moment and we will still rise because there is now limited supply, the technicals will see chartists flagging up market sentiment, the move towards spud date on a 95% chance of success will attract more demand with still limited supply.......... and in the end the fundamentals will take over where the SP goes when the reserves are proved up and we are looking at 20,000 bopd net to us. Chuck in a few planned additional JV's and fandabbydozey (scottish rapper).

In a nutshell your, '.....once we are up to a circa 60-65% retail participation, watch this start to take off rapidly ...' is all that needs to be said.

Good posts and knowledge/research sharing. Thanks guys.

Bottom line positive for the last month ........the management of the placing sells. The placing guys want to make their money at the 3.10 mark. Nice chunk of money. People want to know why the big money people don't go in for the medium/long run and its because.... they have big money. Even £1m bought in the placing is bringing in £160,000 for them if they sell in the present channel.

The simple fact is we have not outgrown the supply at present. The placing investors need to be bought out and for that we need to increase our daily volume. Even at present average volume I reckon we should see the end of those placing shares in roughly three weeks. That of course brings us right into the run up to spud. Things could of course happen sooner if the volume increases (updates/JV's).

Oiler I don't think we're missing anything and your research is spot on.

The first thing as to why we haven't motored on this great news, and it is great news, was neatly laid out for me in Bladey's 14.50 post. We had a placing for £21.8m and by my reckoning we've had 34 trading days where the days high has been above the 2.6p placing price. So 34 days to churn through those shares not taken by the Directors and the ones who are holding. We seem to have been held in a channel for some time which is allowing those placing shares to be sold. Personally I think the balance has been about right in terms of allowing those investors to exit with a suitable uptick.

Secondly the volume has been fairly constant. How many investors actually know about this company let alone the positives of the company when compared to other investments of much higher risk they are probably in? I'm not sure but the posts on this board are not high in number given what we have here.

I'm heavily invested here and for me Bladey is right......... when the churn stops we start and the news flow the company have told us to expect from now is also likely to be a catalyst.

It was on the cards we would be a couple of weeks out on our spud date but that pales into insignificance with the big news.

The drill is now definitely going down.

Pretty sure I would not want another agreement involving a raise before we have the result here SF. Everything comes off our top line and a raise after will dilute us significantly less on success of the drill. For me it would be rank bad management not to wait until end Nov/beginning of Dec for any raise presuming of course the drill goes down on schedule. It seems possible we could be a couple of weeks behind on spud. Not a problem that though.

Happy for the team to squeeze in one or two JV's in December.

The 'value accretive buy and build' strategy of the company is missing something.

Oh yes its the 'buy' part.

Just a refresher of a few bits outlining the way forward from the companies 2018 interim management statement:

'Continued merger and acquisition ('M&A') mandate for growth (asset and corporate options).

Following our full and final exit from Mauritania on 26 January 2018, through termination of the Chinguetti Funding Agreement, Sterling is a cleaner and simpler platform from which to grow the business.

I look forward to updating our shareholders in the coming year as we seek to maximise our value proposition.'

So roll on 3+ years and that simpler and cleaner platform has delivered.............the boards wages and a name change.

The juries has to be out on whether I'm getting strung along here.

'HE1 was a multi billion dollar prospect', it probably still is Spud. But the two ADV & HE1 are as you point out two completely different companies for a number of reasons. I think the only reason we are talking about the two together is that there seems to be a fair few HE1 investors here which is good to see. I'm not in HE1 although I hope both do well.

On a separate issue of CPR's it isn't surprising that many don't read CPR's, I didn't when I first started investing and I know why, they give you a headache trying to understand them but they do answer a stupendous number of questions once you have dissected one. That knowledge is also not wasted if you invest or intend investing in other companies that have CPR's. For those that don't have the one for Buffalo:
https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1092/risc-cpr-buffalo-23mar2021b.pdf

I'm not sure its fair to put an opinion out and then state nobody should challenge it BP.

The CoS for each company is crucial. Both HE1's & ADV's comes from a Competent Persons Report (CPR) conducted independently by highly professional industry experts. You may have had 'loads of people' on bulletin boards telling others HE1 was different but that is the stumbling block. If people used the CPR instead of positive narratives built up by PI's or organised teams often using equity research analysts reports which shine the light on how a stock has magnificent upside as their base then they are missing the absolutely key info from the CPR. The CoS for HE1 according to their CPR was 10%-14% with HE1 themselves stating it could be higher at 20%. The CPR for Buffalo (ADV) estimates the geological CoS to be 95% and the probability of development to be 86%. Those figures have to be the first thing in everybody's mind because they are from industry professionals using established and often complex calculation/interpretations from combined experience often running into hundred+ years.

So ADV is not like HE1 and that's not me saying it, its the professional people who were instructed by both companies.

I too think this stock is relatively unknown at the moment. I previously looked at the volume since we hit the breakeven placing price and while there has been scope for the investors from that to get out with a decent profit we don't know for sure and that is something that could impact the SP. From the volume I would guess we must at the very least be a fair way through the churn if not at/close to the end of it. It is probable, in my view, that it will mostly if not exclusively be PI's that are taking up that churn so if we are relatively unknown then the two, being under the PI radar and needing PI's to take up the placing churn, are mutually linked and could have led to a slower process in terms of SP rise.

How long will this be the case? Probably not long if the general course for lead up to spud for oilers is followed. The added bonus here is that this will be an appraisal not exploration. The headline is the 95% chance of success and the potential 20,000 bopd net to ADV in a short time frame.

'...you will lose your head up your own backside trying to figure the last 4 days out,..'

Too late already staring out through my belly button.

Spud is expected in only nine weeks so while personally I won't hang my hat on it being next week for signing of the formal rig contract next week must be a good prospect.

The long lead equipment is expected to be available in the next five weeks. On that basis I'm also expecting an announcement on the remaining drilling support services and equipment, and joint venture and regulatory approvals. These are apparently in progress and aren't expected to impact the end October spud (June RNS).

I'm as interested about the other as yet undisclosed deals that they the management have their eyes on that they are looking to close in the next four months. That added to the prospect of a potential 20,000bopd net to ADV in the next sixteen months greatly reduces the need/scope of any raises/dilution going forward to fund the work and bring on other projects.

This board have picked an excellent stepping stone with Buffalo and the speed of this companies rise is easy to imagine if the board live up to their reputations.

'Arthur receives many suggestions from shareholders that are nowhere near as coherent as those arguments put forward by Tiburn.'

Had a chuckle at that one Jiving. He's had some belters contacting him in the past.

Unfortunately many of the mineral resources needed to power todays technological world are to be found in places companies would rather not be if they had the choice. Due diligence is evidently not a failsafe. Geopolitically the world is developing into a cesspit at the moment. Due diligence has got much harder in that respect.

There is no clearer examples of the limits of due diligence than say that of the Americans removing their troops from Afghanistan having concluded it wouldn't cause the turmoil that has indeed unfolded or the due diligence undertaken by Hewlett-Packard on its $11billion takeover of Autonomy. It is an attempt to understand the risks but it can't always control them.

That said many companies work in risky environments and make a success of it. I see no reason why this shouldn't be the case with this asset in Mozambique. Indeed Totals $20billion move into the centre of the danger area has done the area a favour as far as security force deployment is concerned.

The market will certainly price any risk in. I like the look of this company and I reckon there's a reasonable chance I can look back in three years or four years and have a big smile on my face from investing here. I've done my due diligence ;-)

First invested here 10 years ago and despite the ups and downs of the gold sector here we have a management team who has achieved what the vast majority of junior mining teams don't, a profitable business with success pooled with shareholders. Well done AAU for your integrity and professionalism.

Bob, Don't be too disappointed, the nature of this has allowed people to accumulate before the RTO with a view to selling upon readdmission. Very likely the majority of those shares have been sold now, together with those of other holders who were selling as a reaction to the lack of impetus in the SP. Those shares are not available to be sold again unless they are bought again.

Wouldn't be surprised to see things develop here from as soon as mid-morning tomorrow. Let's see.

I'm beginning to think we could open up a little bit higher today. Could be a blue day.

**** = male version of hen

I've been reading the posts Bob. Happy to have watched that many are still here and have been in good spirits of late. Warms the ****les.