Member Info for NoEasy

'on your two'

Well done SGF. I'm not really an oil investor per se so missed both TXP & Zeph. I did have a tickle at 88e in its early days and COPl again as an early doors investor. I may not have made the monetary gains you have made your two but I certainly made some crucial gains in experience! The difference between COPL and ADV is glaring to me on just about every level. It hasn't taken ADV five years to get things done for example. I have used it to judge my level of investment here. The clarity I have with this investment isn't something that I find growing on trees.

You and SI seem to have done most of the buying SGF should be a great start to the New year for you both (without even having to cross my fingers). Investing doesn't get much easier than this. We know there's always risk and I can find it if I look but quantifying that risk and comparing it against the normal expected risks associated with oil companies, it doesn't get much easier that this.

It is consolidating nicely Oiler, seems to have done so at circa 2.2, 3.2 & 4.2. Next stop 5.2!

I think you've got a point there Hms. The delay albeit a short one of four weeks from end of October to end of November has seemed to stall the momentum. Not unexpected looking back but I have always been of the mind that any dip on spud would be a shallow one followed by a rise in the thirty odd days leading up to results.

When this comes in I guess a few may well look back and question why they let this opportunity slip.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/now-time-invest-fossil-fuels/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Now we know why it moved up!

Needed news and will be Interesting to see if the potential of EVG is picked up here today.

@Wyn,

'My point is: the rhetoric from this BB and HE1, do show similarities inasmuch as the "chances of failure are so remote that it makes it a once in a life time opportunity" type of thing'

The factual difference i.e. not based upon CEO utterances from either camp, being that HE1 was given a 10-14% chance of success and our project has been given an 86% chance of success for going into production. ADV is an exploration drill, we have a discovery with our drill being one of appraisal.

Many will have gathered from my posts I am not a lover of greatly undeserved sentiment generated for some stocks by BB's, social media and the like . I don't think, given the CoS and previous work undertaken on the buffalo field, that it is wrong to expect with a high level of certainty a positive result here. The rhetoric cannot be criticised too much, if at all, for rightfully reflecting that.

All that said I think your posts are great even though I'm not a TA aficionado (yet....maybe never?).

ATB NE

@his2jen, Looked at that company pre-IPO as well and came to same conclusion, had a few other additional concerns than the ones you mentioned. I also got the impression from my enquiries that the pre-IPO financing was/is taking some time to complete, so not a rush for that discounted offering. If the sentiment can be built up around launch it could do well but likewise not one for me.

Going by the rigs particulars the average knots per hour it travels is 5.1. That equates to nearly 10kmh.

Wouldn't have mattered if it was a one week or as it is a two week 'delay'.

I wish we could chuck in the word delay more frequently. Been a gift.

Looks like the result will come smack in the period between Xmas and New Year.

Its worth keeping an eye on the rig, no matter how much money you have tied up here, and I have a fair amount, because it's not within the control of ADV as to when that rig will be released. Any indication of a delay due to the Skua workovers taking longer than expected could present an investment opportunity likewise an early indication it is on its way to us.

Any significant drop in SP at spud is not always a given. ADV has been likened to Zephyr in terms of potential SP trajectory. Take a look at their movement leading up to spud where they lost 10% in the week leading into spud (three trading days before the xmas break which often also leads to money being taken off the table). The SP then started northwards during the period from spud to results. Add in the chance of success we have here and my money is on there being a dip of some small magnitude but then a pretty quick reversal as money comes in on this not so speculative drill.

I agree that investing has changed, massively so for penny shares where communications are now superfast and open and sentiment not fundamentals can rule the waves. That's where I'm beginning to realise technical analysis has its place.

Thanks Piltick, good to have your knowledge on the board.

@Barrabad, yes I've got it as circa 24% over the course of the field life based upon 34million barrels.

We have a cracking PSC with the government, particularly when you compare what the PSC's are in Indonesia. They were at 85% but changed a few years ago to 45% but with no cost recovery for exploration, appraisal etc. We will get the vast majority of our expenditure back before we have to start paying the government their share I believe. That's a lot of money.

So one of the best PSC's in SE Asia and lower operating costs than Australia.

The actual PSC Carnarvon signed with the government in 2019:
http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-PSC-TL-SO-T-19-14-ENG/$File/PSC-TL-SO-T-19-14-Eng.pdf?OpenElement

Just need to see three ships on that map heading away together in a roughly 2 0'clock direction and its game on.

The fixed point to use on that map to see if they've moved is S12°30'02.93 which is what you get if you hover over the Valaris 107. That will change as you move your cursor away from the Valaris so should give a heads up they are steaming towards us.

I made that mistake previously, the Go Sirius is not so much an offshore supply ship but more an anchor handling tug supply vessel (AHTS). An AHTS is 'solely concerned with the objective of either tugging or towing an oil-rig or a ship.'

Go Sirius was used to tow the rig to its present position with the Pacific Valour which is already in the area and the Skandi Atlantic (AHTS) that ST posted was due to arrive today. So things could be hotting up right on time. We have had all three around the rig before but we know we must be close to rig release right about now.

https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/go-sirius-mmsi-566635000-imo-9545871
https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/skandi-atlantic-mmsi-311000896-imo-0
https://www.marineinsight.com/types-of-ships/what-are-anchor-handling-tug-vessels-aths/

Forgot to add that a key component of getting the earliest possible production rests upon the sourcing of a suitable FPSO.

LP said it would appear arrogant to say they could do it in 15 months......so he didn't say it? I reckon that's the time the JV will be trying to achieve, plus the 6 months it will take to get to re-certify resources to reserves, conclude finance and make the Final Investment Decision (FID).

So could be as early as august 2023 if they can emulate BHP who did FID to first oil in 15 months. RISC in the independent report (CPR) stated that they consider this to be achievable but a relatively aggressive schedule.

Happy with the $50 oil price used by the independent report (CPR), anything above that is a bonus (although forecasts are for higher than $50).

Compelling value proposition
• Material interest in project with low development Capex • Expected (2C) project-level IRR = 85% @ $50 oil
• Strong redevelopment cash flow generation from 2023 onward
• First year gross Buffalo, Free Cash Flow (FCF) = US$ 276 million
https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1085/adv-marketing-presentation-final-140321-v3.pdf

That will do for starters.

Yes good luck to everyone invested in both companies.