Member Info for Nobby31

I feel the key thing is no delay to FID.

I’ve posted a little while back on this point but the key to unlock this project is a binding capacity offtake as this establishes how “the market” values MRS capacity. It also gives the BOD the sound basis to raise the debt & provides the steer on value for an equity partner (possibly more than one).

I think what may have changed in the past year or two is the appetite for an equity partner to take a little more risk on this as it so obvious now that “swing” is going to be of increasing importance to diurnal load balancing as renewables increase and Rough, Groningen, UKCS have depleted or disappeared.

It’s also likely an equity investor will also be a capacity holder but possibly in different proportions!?

This is the only lse chat I read so keep it coming folks.

The share price will continue to drift unless and until
a firm capacity agreement is executed.
Nothing else is important in relative terms.
If this is not obtained by Q1/Q2 2019 management may lose faith and sad to say this chapter will draw to a close.
The current buoyant state of the natural gas market gives this the best chance we have seen in several years despite there being little seasonal spread but it all hangs on a brave offtaker who is prepared to guess at where the U.K. market will be in around 3 years time.

Errr my highest buy is around 26p My breakeven is 1.44p Some of us have been here for a while Technically the highest the share price has been is 440p in 2007/8 When the company was called Portland Gas Ltd

Sorry I see the thread and who he is I thought you meant Sir Jim Ratcliffe of INEOS

Spud Who is “Radders”

I’m enjoying these posts. I’m not a day trader but it seems some you really do look into the deep dark corners to discover the really important issues on this stock.
For me however whilst it appears a lot of good things have happened the project is still stuck not a million miles from where it was a year ago or whenever the ousting of the Board took place.
What fundamentally has to happen for the market and larger investors to truly believe in the value of this stock, (a one project company) is as I’m sure some of you appreciate, for an external creditworthy party to commit to an offtake (storage capacity) agreement of sufficient duration, volume and price such that IMSL can “take it to the bank” and ultimately get it built. As such this story is mainly about the natural gas markets, volatility, spreads and option value in the portfolios of the large energy suppliers who are the logical customers. The issue with that is due to a lack of forward liquidity eg beyond 18 months the market is thin and relatively untested. It is therefore difficult to measure or lock in returns given a 2 year minimum construction time (which I believe to be slightly optimistic given the leaching times and above ground facilities as well as connections to the grud(s)). Not impossible but tough.
I do think that things both internally in the company and externally in the markets mean that the prospect of IMSL actually building something is as high as it has been since the project was conceived by Andrew Hindle some 9/10 years ago. I’m sitting with my fingers crossed wondering who that key investor will be?
Good luck to all!

Yes I believe that was all built using the EU Project of Commmon Intrest grant about 5 years ago. I read something somewhere about 2/3 govt funding to get this project going but this is unlikely to be EU money in which case what govt will fund it. Couldn’t get finance from uk HMG as Osborne’s £40billion infrastructure fund required long term offtake Agreements which were unobtainable a few years ago. Like all these projects it’s arranging robust finance that will be a key turning point in the project and of more interest here the share pr

I’m sorry dear chap but that was really a rather ignorant post. Never mind, we are all entitled to our own opinions ....you too! However most folks try to deal with facts and relevant information. I agree the AIM is a quite treacherous market at times but if you post on here at least think a little deeper and be coherent. We can all benefit then from your wisdom. Let’s be clear no one is or ought to be telling anyone to do anything; it’s just a platform for sharing views and everyone hopefully has the clarity of thought to make up their own mind. Have a good weekend.

No I wasn’t aware of that but it does make sense putting a terminal at this location rather than west coast of Ireland for many obvious reasons. This will add significant optionality to the project sponsors. Indeed I guess it seems likely there will be co investors in both to hedge positions. Presumably if tankage its also possible to do transshipment? All the runes are good for this beleaguered asset. It’s about time the U.K. started building “stuff” again ... even if it’s underground 🤗

It’s interesting as I am not a day Trader reading all this - I don’t even know how to look at buy/sell indicators but IMHO anyone sensible ought to have a buy and hold for at least a few months, maybe year end on this. This share once stood at 440p it won’t get near that again but if you examine the valuation now, the probability of commercial success, possibly a little more dilution I suggest the shareholders should assess this company as ultimately being worth several multiples of where it is right now. But that should become clear as I wrote earlier upon a successful FID with funding & at least 1 or 2 long term offtake Agreements. Investors should be sitting pretty if they are in at or around current levels as if you understand some of the supply dynamics of the U.K. energy markets volatility is increasing not least as the UKCS depletes and we have to compete on the world stage for LNG (92% of which came from Qatar last year!)

It also de stresses the GB National Grid in winter as much of the gas shipped in the Moffat Interconnector originates from St Fergus. There is a considerable benefit here in netting off. Irish power demand is notoriously spiky due to renewables penetration so a fast action MRS facility effectively balances that out - subject to the economics the store will have the physical capability to do this in the gas and electrical grids with Ballylumford CCGT adjacent to the proposed development on Islandmagee