Member Info for Nobby31

£263,000 I reckon

Yes, thank you, I understand the points you make re Stublach. However I was not referring to
Stublach in my earlier mail. There is another one in an advanced stage, not dissimilar to IMSL but onshore & adjacent to Stublach. The economics are better than Stublach.

Thing is that this is the only project one can invest directly in.
I’d be foolish to say I had no concern because the other projects are in GB and ours is in a smaller market in NI requiring commitments from smaller companies with less customers. This is mitigated given SNIP will be bidirectional but I’d have been happier if this project had retained its original scope and purpose which was to use IC1 & IC2 such GB, NI and ROI were part of the plan.
I bought the extra stock as I’m committed and do believe it will go ahead but with tweet about salt from JW, the never ending warrants along with my original point on this thread have made this a little harder to believe in; nonetheless I’m of the view it will go ahead & the SP ought to at least double from where it is now

Are you folks aware of the other projects out there competing for the same business?
I’m thinking of Halite and another (onshore) Cheshire salt cavity project that shall remain nameless.
This isn’t being negative but the people placing their business in particular the capacity holders will be shopping their options to see where they get best value and that takes time as it’s pretty complicated stuff

It was up there a few minutes ago.
Discussing my reasons for investing in the stock.
Now I can’t see it - or maybe I’m going blind.
Who runs this shitshow?

Could be me but I can never see my trades on this - just snuffled up another 4,500,000 to the tally !

Can I recommend to those interested in a deeper dive that you look on the TE website. These guys really do understand the energy markets with a specific focus on risk and option value.
All you need to do is to give your email address to get the information.
Today they have a piece called “Variable cost a key differentiator for storage” and whatsmore there are some links to other articles on Storage.
One further observation, it’s a shame we haven’t yet experienced a good freeze for a week or two. I hope it’s coming because wholesale prices have dropped pretty significantly although still holding up in recent historic levels but it is amazing how a bit of really cold weather can do for market sentiment towards “our project”
So fill your boots! GLA.

Took a good hard look at this once.
The market for salt is very tough and largely run by a bunch of bandits. You have to spend money to refine it to get decent £/tonnage ie for pharma grade product.
No need for investors or JW to be focusing on this and I was surprised to see him messaging about it; I hope he can prove me wrong but there have to be more important things for the CEO to be spending his time on as even if it did work it’s only going to be an incremental revenue stream & the discharge consents for the leaching process were all in place so I do hope there is no problem on this.
We all want to hear about the equity and capacity discussions. If I was them I’d be running a bid process for each side of this as it would appear there are multiple interested parties so an apparent opportunity to leverage value.

Yes sorry about that I didn’t see that you may need to subscribe to get more detail. However if you hunt around typing in “gas storage black scholes extrinsic value options theory” you will find lots more detail. It is quite complex and the major analysts and storage owners have quantitative models which signal/tell them what to do on a particular day.
Some of these are bespoke and some are off the shelf so another way into learning more may be to type in “gas storage quantitative modelling” Good luck.

Dear All,

Just catching up here again and note that this SP is somewhat akin to the real U.K. (NBP/NWE) traded gas market. Given Islandmagee is yet to be built I find it quite amusing although as an LTH it’s got its drawbacks but then we are risk takers aren’t we. That’s why we are on here? So, regarding risk I’d seen some comments and questions about how value is captured by owning space in a project like this. Having had a dig around I’d point those who are interested towards an article on Google called “Come On, Feel The Noise: Natural Gas Storage - The Signal And The Noise”. It’s quite an easy read and somewhat serves to demystify the subject without getting heavily into the mathematics of options theory. GLA

I look at the share trades and all sells presumably from day traders in the main.
But the price rise has held. Is it the case that some larger buyers and maybe institutions are mopping these up?
I’m not sure this list of trades fully represents all deals done is that because it doesn’t show trades on all exchanges?

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=142523

Anyone wishing to see how wholesale (NBP) prices are moving can see with the above link.
They have in fact softened considerably along the curve as we move into the second half of the winter as storage and LNG arrivals mean we ought to be well supplied for the short term at least if another Siberian Beast should arrive

Spud et al,

Intrinsic value is historically a determinant for seasonal storage value as it looks to the delta between Summer and Winter prices along the forward curve. However in the timeframe for a new development like Islandmagee which has a 2 year lead time the curve is increasingly illiquid (easily moved by a few trades). So it not really a reliable measure and also as most on this BB are well aware the energy market is changing rapidly; not least the decoupling of gas and oil price and increasing footprint of renewables in the generation mix.

However IMSL is a MRS/SRS (not LRS) project hence a greater component of value lies in the extrinsic component which as you say is primarily intra day / day ahead/ balance of week etc. This is highly unpredictable even if you’re a Black Scholes genious! But this will be a state of the art fast reacting, well located asset that will be streets ahead of other existing assets which are being hit with high business taxes and lower rents etc.

I am convinced this asset and the BOD have and are aligned to make the very most of current market conditions. The stars seem well aligned to me. Good luck to all

Sorry Google “Standard Bundled Units” not Storage Bundled Units !

If anyone on the thread would like to understand more about how space is sold in storage facilities like this then to start off I suggest you might Google the title SBU.
The value of the space is driven by the three key parameters of injection, storage and withdrawal rates. Each SBU have an intrinsic value driven by this “geometry” in the way the asset is constructed.
Valuing storage is based on intrinsic and extrinsic factors but there is a lot of information and data on the web if you wish to get into the details.

Shell, one of the big 6, Vitol or possibly INEOS.

Is it possible to find out how many different individual holders ofINFA stock there are?

I think the expression might be “you’re gonna need a bigger cigar?!”

There she blows

This is one of the most interesting rides I have been on. I worked for these guys back in 2007 and the share price hit 440p. I’ve held this stock for ever in my SIPP knowing that it would one day come good; at the expense of holding blue chips and getting dividends. Somehow I got my breakeven down to around 1.22p so finally after all these years I’m about breakeven ignoring inflation and other safer returns.
I’m holding nearly 8 million so I’m hoping that we will see a rerating. If you approximate each 0.1p in share price to £1million in Company value then I feel if this goes to FID we have to be thinking 3-5p given the number of shares and outstanding warrants valuing the company at £30 million + is not unreasonable. GLA.