Member Info for NewKOTB

Another few decent late reported trades, £174k & £113k to follow on from yesterdays.

At 25kboepd - Revenue of approximately ~US$1,766,750 per day (pre Opex)

Roth1,

"Any potential acquirer will want firm information on R3 flow rates (as will SQZ) to determine a proper valuation of the company..."

Exactly, a point I have made many many times on run up to R3 ..... hence my view has always been, that if we are to be made an offer we can't refuse, it will be in and around the commencement of R3 production window. The added bonus now is that as R3 has taken sooooo long ( by design or otherwise) to get going that the uplift timing on BKR PSA and Columbus will make any suitors ROI so much faster and more likely, SQZ a tastier proposition.

PS Also interesting that amount of 'housekeeping' that's been happening with Bruce platform recently too, all as a result of DD maybe, who knows ! Deep Vision has been like a shuttle service for some months now too.

PPS Would like improved figures on our 2P's gained from R3 data, after all this too has a significant impact on valuing a company. So would expect an independent review of improved said reserves.

aimo & atb

"I'm amazed no one has shown any interest in acquiring us with both Rhum3 and Columbus nearing completion .Let alone full ownership of Bkr in a little over four months...."

Hummmm, indeed.... ;-)

With BKR revenue sharing agreement ending 31/12/2021 plus Rhum3, Columbus and Keith back online we will effectively be more than doubling (+100%) our attributable revenue in 2022 for, as good as, ZERO further Capex and don't forget we have ZERO debt and a hanger full of cash too.

aimo

"This really is Christmas come early for the gas producers and whilst they have differing agendas, such as Diversified Energy enjoying nearly $4 Henry Hub, President in Argentina and Savannah Energy in Nigeria the home beneficiaries are really making out like, well, not before shall we say. Other beneficiaries are led by Serica where Mitch Flegg must be overjoyed, Kistos who are already producing from the Tulip deal, IOG where first gas from their Phase 1 SNS project is imminent and of course all of those hoping that their major gas projects in Morocco come good such as Chariot, Predator and Sound as well as others..."

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/08/oil-price-challenger-scirocco-and-finally/

Real pity, to-date, we have not benefited from R3 .... real pity indeed ! Day 317/70

Just a small point about R3 delay .... so far, given we should of completed originally end of Feb (after commencing re-entry mid October 2020), lets say March for those little unforeseen issues. On a very conservative £50boe @ 4500boepd net, to-date, SQZ's lost net revenue is approx £33m, run that through to EoY and we are looking at >£61,000,000, majority of which would flow straight to the bottom-line. That does not take into account the £millions£ incurred in cost / project overrun. That said, it is what it is .... I would hope that mountains are being moved to get R3 online and flowing within days.

aimo

Still time to enter .... but hurry !

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/competition-leaflet.pdf

Also, as far as CityFibre are concerned, for BT it will be a case of crush or buy .... the CityFibre investors are clearly hoping for the latter.

fleccy,

"Considering the market is supposed to be forward looking.."

They are .... hence the pressure on our SP. City players, inc GS will be loading up with BT as they talk their book. Watch for GS et al headlines in 4 to 8 months on how undervalued BT are.

aimo

"£500m equity investment from an Abu Dhabi consortium......"

Don't think that will go far ......

afaic, we hit bottom of rising channel today.

atb

nuri123a, we shall see .... without doubt, holders will wake up to a stonking RNS .... and Altice (Drahi) will be in the thick of it.

As I say, maybe not tomorrow, next week or next month, but at some point. Just a case of riding it out and accumulating as and when.

aimo.

You know when there is TARGETED downward pressure on an SP, esp on a Blue FTSE day .... that large orders need to be filled ready for inevitable spike up on RNS .... The City know that BT is in play and are loading up in anticipation of big pay day... not tomorrow, next week or next month, but at some point. Just a case of riding it out and accumulating as and when.

aimo

sasa,

Got to say Upomega has a point, particularly with hedging, we're probably looking at H1 £9m un-realised revenue and ~£29m for year. Our interims, I hope to show circa £125m CoH or around 1/3 of our current Mcap. I would also question the decision making process and planning for R3 .... We had Deep Vision on site a few months ago and Boka last month ... should the tree cap not have been fitted then ! Setting out to drill in the North Sea in the middle of winter, cost over-runs and delays are unwanted features of R3. Now, to be left in a situation that could mean negative cash-flow from R3 for remainder of 2021 due to considerations paid to BP is poor planning and execution imo. R3 should have be pumping >10kboepd from Q2 .... not us still waiting for that merry day.

Have SQZ learnt lessons from R3 .... I hope so, as Eigg may turn out to be just that, on SQZ face if we have a repeat of R3. Sadly, I don't class SQZ as a drilling / expo company, as such should either play to their strengths or sell.

If R3 was a gov project, I would be calling for a public review into R3.

Yours faithfully,

Mr I.B.Frustrated

AIMO of course and have a good weekend.

PS SQZ remains, by far, my primary position and top tip for 2022.... if we last that long !

atb.

"The 'Deep Vison' will be on location at well Rhum 3 (R3) installing the External Tree Cap."

Does this represents more project over-run, more costs, more questions to be asked or is the normal timely sequence of events, probably the former imo, at least it's not a plug being fitted.

Think some of the crew will be ready for this cap to be fitted at the end of R3. Day 312/70

https://www.zazzle.co.uk/retired_oil_field_equipment_mechanic_trucker_hat-148032248763758280

https://parveen.in/products/x-mas-tree-cap/

aimo.

Upomega,

The two recent RNS's reference separate schemes :

Employee Share Incentive Plan
&
2017 Long Term Incentive Plan

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/ukla/pn-907-1.pdf

atb

Day 311/70 .... I've witnessed coastal erosion happen quicker than R3.

That is the issue, buybacks generate known buying pressure within there own little trading bubble, doesn't take much CPU power to work out when to buy and when to sell .... think the traders BoT's dealing in BP could manage a 386sx chip no real need to splash out on a 486 !

Would be nice for BP to up the anti and push the trading range back into the 330's though....

aimo

Interesting take on PE's seeking value in UK markets.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-9849945/RUTH-SUNDERLAND-Easy-pickings-buyout-barons-private-equity.html

"If US private equity can see the value, why can't the city?..."

The City can, that's the issue, hence drive the price down, hold it down ... accumulate and await PE takeover for big fat profit ... The City don't care who owns what so long as they get their pound of flesh.

aimo

"5 min auction to open SP ?...."

Yep, notice that too, not the norm for VOD at all ... :-)

DV has left Bruce and returning to LERWICK ...

...maybe to pick up another Just Eat delivery ..... Greggs sausage rolls must have gone down a storm !

Lets hope the planned enhancement work for Keith is now complete too.

atb & aimo & dyor

ps .. re-posted as site is having a wobble once more ...