Member Info for NewKOTB

KS,

See below copy of post from July :

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Based on average production guidance from SQZ :

Using current POO $73/barrel, Gas 93p/therm, hedging of ~20% gas production at ~40p/therm for 2022 in 20/80 split with $1.42/£ on very conservative production over 335 days, UNIT revenue $58.16boe post Opex $12.60/barrel(expected to fall sub $10/barrel) :

At est 30.35kboepd (Average guidance net production for 2022) US$1,765,273 / per day
335 days 30.35kboepd (net) US$591,366,302 pa

So, estimated revenue for 2022 (less opex) of circa £430m pa vs current Mcap of £409m. Clearly massive wriggle room in these figures, but it does show that SQZ is worth far more than 151p/s it's sat atm

In 2019 we managed £109m profit before tax ... when we only had 50% of BKR, no R3 or Columbus !

When you add in NO Debt, tax losses of ~£42m, very limited decomms, reserves of ~60mmboe 2P, CoH >£100m atm it all adds to the extremely strong investment case...

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So KS, upshot is, like you I believe SQZ is way undervalued and problem is it has been for soooo long, its become the market norm ... lets see how the market handles this 'misunderstanding' in the coming weeks. IMO, one of two things will occur, a decent re-rate or an approach. atb

aimo & dyor

Stonking close on KIST from out of no where, from being +15pts at 16:30 to +22.5pts (8.74%) close @ magnificent 280p.... wowwwzzza.....

Interesting fact KIST:SQZ exactly 8:5 ... hummm

aimo

+22.5pts (8.74%) close @ magnificent 280p.... wowwwzzza

I mention this because, 50% of 34,000boe/d for the Rhum field, even at $3/barrel would result in ~$18m pa.

Don't forget, the up-stream 'service' we, 'SQZ' provide as operator and Bruce Platform owner is not for free .... IOC with 50% of Rhum, (along with other partners) will be paying for this service (production, processing, transportation), how much per barrel I've not got a clue but it would be nice if at current Opex rate ~$14/barrel (lol) although I would guess it would, in reality be a lot, lot less. I would think this may well be accounted for within Trade and Other Receivables, 2020 £41m, 2019 £36m as part of 'partner recoverables due'. If anyone knows for sure, be great to know where and how much in our accounts this sits.

aimo

Previously notified position in brackets

AXA Framlington Investment Managers** 32,773,680 12.22% (12.28%)
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,155,045 10.50% (unchanged)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 19,347,234 7.21% (unchanged)
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.03% (unchanged)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 12,836,158 4.79% (unchanged)
BlackRock 10,630,087 3.96% (unchanged)
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.90% (unchanged)
Janus Henderson Investors 10,088,531 3.76% (unchanged)
GRG UK Oil LLC 9,841,839 3.67% (4.79%)
Interactive Investor 9,535,634 3.56% (unchanged)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,874,580 2.94% (unchanged)

As at 13 August 2021, the Company had 268,226,215 ordinary shares in issue of which 25.72% is not held in public hands.

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information.

lol .... Thick 'n' Fast ....

"You missed one this morning....AXA selling down..."

No, didn't miss it !! hence, 'Coming think 'n' fast atm', (lol) AXA just moved down to previous TR-1, April notification level and will probably move back up again.

aimo

London 6 September 2021 - Serica Energy plc (AIM: SQZ) will announce its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2021 on 28 September 2021.

Coming think 'n' fast atm ... GRG down to 3.67%

The way the buying pressure has continued, unabated for some days / weeks now, could we have yet another deal to add to the latest. AA will be looking to max his leverage imo so another deal is more than possible .. strong buying today is some what unexpected.
aimo

KIST just gone telephone trade only on IG .... most unusual.

D220,

"A useful little perk..."

LOL, guess it depends upon which side of the fence you are !

atb

DV appears to have finished what ever it was tasked to carry out, back in port now ..... she also visited Bruce and Keith wells and ran at inspection knots over these supply pipelines too ... is that H&S inspection completed or some form of DD .... hummm !

aimo & dyor.

RELLIM,

Cheers and thanks for your post, chin-chin !

atb

Dickupham,

"Thanks for your thoughts, NK. I've put together a few numbers myself, with more bullish results, so I hope yours turn out to be on the conservative side...."

You have probably noticed the re-calculations I made, which I'm guessing more closely reflect yours. Error on my part was getting my 'Q' & 'H's mixed up, as Del Boy would of said .... 'You plonker, NewKOTB! ' although I do prefer the quote 'This time next year we’ll be millionaires!'

atb

Mommur,

"Are you sure that SQZ qualifies for this..."

I do understand this to be the case, given the right circumstances.

https://www.druces.com/issues-to-be-aware-of-in-using-aim-listed-shares-business-property-relief-bpr/

https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/inheritance-tax-manual

atb

SM,

"I also had BP at £2.01 last year....but flogged them at put the proceeds into Kistos..."

Now, that's a smart cookie, double chocolate chip one at that !!

Happy that I'm holding both BP and KIST atm .... btw, Kistos don't have a CFO.

atb

Mommur,

"Strangely enough I bought a tranche of BP shares at 195p to support my SQZ holding!! ...."

Well done indeed Sir, snap !!

I thought my buy at 205p and more recently top-up at 274p was good but there is always someone smarter than I ...

BP with their Divi's, buybacks and green objectives looks good for long term hold afaic.

As for SQZ, really not sure on our direction atm .... are we going all out to stay independent or looking to sell. My preference has always to sell at >225p by Q4 and indications are just than in my mind but given right events SQZ could easily go from strength to strength in 2022.

atb

LOL .... So my worry expressed and answered in the recent AGM only a few months ago has now been addressed :

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Mitch,

Chris left his position as CFO of SQZ 6 years ago, since then we have not re-appointed a CFO to our Board

Question for AGM: Why do SQZ appear at ease with a vacant CFO position on the board.

Mitch's answer at the time :

https://vimeo.com/channels/serica @ 29:09

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So now an about turn .... hummmm ... why !

My guess is twofold.

1. For admittance to FTSE Main listing you clearly require a CFO.

2. RNS stated "ready to take Serica to the next stages of growth and financial success..." that may well be, but without current owners, ie us shareholders.

aimo & dyor