Member Info for NewKOTB

Sum Of The Parts .... this is where value is locked in atm .... city know what's coming and unless you have a 'whole' you can't benefit from 'Sum Of The Parts' come the break-up when the value is unlocked.
City, et al are focused on getting as many 'whole' parts for as cheap as possible. When the tide turns it will be like a tsunami .... atm we are all watching the shoreline pullback into the distance and wondering what the 'ell going on.

aimo

'A' trades once more ruling the day .... nice to see at least an attempt to hide the buying .... lol, with example showing NINE identical trades with identical timestamp, ie all within a single second and not an isolated case by any means.

13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.70 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,004 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,700 Buy* 175.40 176.20 3,006 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 1,125 Buy* 175.40 176.20 1,989 A
13-Sep-21 16:10:04 176.80 575 Buy* 175.40 176.20 1,017 A

PS Been strong buying in the PM sessions for some time now too.

Good day today, as it should of been with the SP being pegged back for most of morning session to get the large orders away on the back of $73/barrel Brent and $125/boe Gas future that are up +6% today at 155p/therm.

Value will out, one way or another ... question is are SQZ going to be the future benefactors of our product.

aimo & dyor

chinch,

"What about the cost for Rhum 3? Will this take a shine off the figures?.."

"Net 2021 CapEx spend is expected to be around £14.3m", increase on previous "estimate of 7.8m" for R3 , also Columbus "net 2021 CapEx spend is expected to be £17m", with full year 2021 expected to be ~£31.3m.

So, given we don't know when the invoices are paid, ie H1 or H2 and significant works carried over to H2, I have taken £14.3m on balance as CapEx for H1. But it's just 'best guess' in essence as to CapEx's impact on H1 results.

As for "take a shine off the figures?", yes it will, to the tune of up to £6.5m vs initial SQZ R3 estimates.

aimo & dyor

ps Marker price for NBP Q3 to-date now risen to average of 103.37p/therm :-)

Refined figures :

So, using SQZ average production guidance of 25kboepd on 80/20 split.

Revenue est : £155.3m H1 vs £46m 2020, £146m 2019

5kboepd Brent at est average of $65 barrel (£47) - ~£42.3m
17.1kboepd NBP at est average of 57p/therm - £101.8m
2.9kboepd hedged (Q1 3.2kboepd / Q2 2.6kboepd) - £11.2m

est BKR PSA ~ £49.7m
est CapEx ~14.5m
est Opex ~£38.2m

H1 Group Op profit est of ~ +£42m vs (-£12.7m) 2020 / +£52.5m 2019.

CoH est ~£121m vs £89.3m EoY 2020 with ZERO debt on the books.

TBH, still way too many variables for these figures to be other than 'fag packet / ballpark' ones and most certainly, repeat, most certainly, not to be relied upon.

Once 2022 is upon us, the BKR PSA 'payment' SQZ have shown to-date in their accounts, will now almost entirely move to the bottom line and to CoH, significantly improving profits and one would hope, options open to the BoD on dividend payments moving forward.

aimo & dyor

NBP prices for Q3 to-date are going to reflect well in our 2021 EoY results vs 2020 ....

NBP marker prices now at an amazing average 100.71p/therm with Brent at $72.96/barrel vs 2020 Q3 of NBP 21.06p/therm & Brent $42.94/barrel.

Upomega,

The hedging 'puts' we had early on in the BKR days were facilitated by BP ... who's to say all others since have been and are to be with BP's trading arm, sort of a quid pro quo !

What's interesting is given the relentless rise of NBP and if media speculation is to be believed, should current prices prevail, then SQZ could, at top end of current SQZ production guidelines be set to receive revenue of ~£1,000,000,000 net for 2022. Now not only would that be amazing for our company and us as shareholder but also highlights the extremely vulnerable position SQZ are in atm, with current Mcap of ~£450m.

https://uk.newschant.com/business/energy-rationing-feared-as-russias-gas-squeeze-exposes-the-uks-perilously-low-reserves/

aimo & dyor.

At least with R3 online now, we are benefiting a little extra from these elevated gas prices to the tune of ~£1,400,000 p/w NET (pre Opex) to SQZ, or around £25,000,000 until end of year at current rates.... or £2,300,000 p/w NET post 31/12/21

Be interesting to see if we have a big jump in production rate ( i.e +50%) announced from R3 on or after the second week of October.

PS Little under 3 weeks to interim's ..

aimo & dyor

US, German, French, Japan, Australia ... you name them .... all markets UP ..... except, yep ... FTSE, down >1%

City bods know this will be much, much higher within 12 months or less so will take the SP as low as they can ... taking shares off the hands of weak PI's and into their grubby paws.

"Climate Change is an opportunity for Capitalists to make money. Loads of money. You just need to get on the right side of the trade...." , "Political decisions are not made for the good or benefit of the peasants, they are made if there is a "profit" ..", mantra of all Ferengi who appear now to be running our planet !

H1 2022 @ 40.90p/them average for 250,000 therms/day
H2 2022 @ 39.75p/therm average for 150,000 therms/day

Sasa,

Also, not sure if they want to risk taking out anymore atm .... SQZ imo jumped the gun last year in fear of low NBP and entered into what now look like poor decisions on approx 25% of our production with forward summer 2022 contract at 80p/therm atm ....

H1 @ 40.90p/them average for 250,000 therms/day
H1 @ 39.75p/therm average for 150,000 therms/day

If anything, contracts for 2023 of >60p/therm would be my target.

But like you said, who knows what the Russians will do !

atb

aimo & dyor

sasa,

"Serica must be stepping up their 'hedging' or 'swaps' now with the gas price over 3 x what it was last year..."

NBP closed at 9.46p/therm back in May 2020 after hitting 8p/therm .... so its a little more than 3x last year, closer to x15 (1500%) off lows.

The problem I would guess with SQZ entering into more swaps is just as you mentioned, which counterparty would want to take on that risk for contracts in 2022, not many I would guess. However, it would be interesting to see what SQZ do manage.

aimo.

Previously notified position in brackets.

AXA Framlington Investment Managers** 32,565,343 12.14% (12.22%)
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,220,958 10.52% (10.50%)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 18,903,234 7.21% (unchanged)
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.03% (unchanged)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 12,802,402 4.77% (4.79%)
BlackRock 11,488,426 4.28% (3.96%)
Janus Henderson Investors 11,379,339 4.24% (3.76%)
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.90% (unchanged)
Interactive Investor 10,076,229 3.76% (3.56%)
GRG UK Oil LLC 9,841,839 3.67% (unchanged)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,874,580 2.94% (unchanged)

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 31 August 2021 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 13 August 2021, the Company had 268,226,215 ordinary shares in issue of which 25.60% is not held in public hands.

D220,

"I am toying with switching a considerable chink of my pf into here if this pullback continues. With 100% BKR.."

Many I think will be considering the same given the tiger in the room has now been tamed (R3), plus Columbus nailed on at 3.5kboepd in Q4. I know I am !!

aimo

"securing direct control over the $170 billion U.S. telecoms operator..." .....

Makes BT's current Mcap look like chicken feed .... at $22bn

Deals like this will hopefully wake the telecom sector from it sleep ... well in the UK anyway !

From October 2023, no-one will have to pay more than £86,000 for care over their lifetime as part of the government's social care plan, the PM has announced.

Anyone who has assets of less than £20,000 will have their care costs fully covered by the state.

Those with assets between £20,000 and £100,000 will receive some means-tested state support.

To fund the plans, National Insurance contributions will rise by 1.25% and tax on share dividends will also go up by 1.25%.

The changes will come into effect from April 2022.

From 2023 the NI increase will appear on people’s payslips as a separate Health & Social Care levy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58473078

From October 2023, no-one will have to pay more than £86,000 for care over their lifetime as part of the government's social care plan, the PM has announced.

Anyone who has assets of less than £20,000 will have their care costs fully covered by the state.

Those with assets between £20,000 and £100,000 will receive some means-tested state support.

To fund the plans, National Insurance contributions will rise by 1.25% and tax on share dividends will also go up by 1.25%.

The changes will come into effect from April 2022.

From 2023 the NI increase will appear on people’s payslips as a separate Health & Social Care levy.

Tax on Divi's to go up .... by +1.25% ..... :-(

"Come December, may the BT bun fight commence..."

LOL, I'm going out now to load up with Greggs as there is bound to be a shortage of buns come December.

Add on weakness and hold is my MO atm.... BT will deliver at least 100% from here, in some form or another within 12 months .

aimo