Member Info for NewKOTB

Oh boy ... when I said my figures weren't to be relied upon I wasn't kidding ... !!!!

Major malfunction with brain occurred !!!

So will try again,

So, using SQZ average production guidance of 25kboepd on 80/20 split.

Revenue est : £164.1m H1 vs £46m 2020, £146m 2019

5kboepd Brent at est average of $70 barrel (£51) - ~£43.3m
17.1kboepd NBP at est average of 65p/therm - £109.6m
2.9kboepd hedged (Q1 3.2kboepd / Q2 2.6kboepd) - £11.2m

est BKR PSA ~ £56.5m
est CapEx ~14.5m
est Opex ~£38.2m

H1 Group Op profit est of ~£46m vs (-£12.7m) 2020 / +£52.5m 2019.

CoH est ~£126m vs £89.3m EoY 2020

Ahhh, that looks better, worst thing was I questioned previous post myself but it still passed quality control....!

TBH, still way too many variables for these figures to be other than 'fag packet / ballpark' ones and most certainly, repeat, most certainly, not to be relied upon.

PS Don't think I would have got the CFO job after my previous effort !!

aimo and apologies once more plus dyor ... !

Significant amount at mid-point too .. hummm

Was todays' R3 RNS the trigger .... we shall see, although tbh, the flow-rate declare was on the low side imo, expected significantly higher, maybe others did too.

Pleased to see SP reaction following on from yesterdays 'in the know' buyers, lets see if we can close the week out on an ATH.

atb & aimo of course.

dickupham,

Hope you are well.

"Anyone care to speculate on bottom line profit and cash in hand?.."

Wowww, not asking for much ...lol

Back of fag packet, tiny one at that ... here goes,

So, using SQZ average production guidance of 25kboepd on 80/20 split.

Revenue est : £92.6m H1 vs £46m 2020, £146m 2019

5kboepd Brent at est average of $70 barrel (£51) - ~£22.9m
17.1kboepd NBP at est average of 65p/therm - £58.5m
2.9kboepd hedged (Q1 3.2kboepd / Q2 2.6kboepd) - £11.2m

less est BKR PSA ~ £31.5m
less est CapEx ~14.5m
less est Opex ~£20m

H1 Group Op profit est of £20m vs (-£12.7m) 2020 / +£52.5m 2019.

CoH est ~£110m vs £89.3m EoY 2020

TBH, way too many variables for these figures to be other than 'fag packet' ones and most certainly not to be relied upon.

aimo & dyor

"The person who made 100K avail, would know lot more about the company's in and outgoing and will surely have much more info then we PI's...."

For sure, with a 10% interest rate and a conversion of debt to shares at 0.5p/s, why not loan your cash !!!

Like I say, serious issue if you need a loan for £200k to pay legal fees ... lol

To top it all, shareholder 'suckers' will be asked for more cash to re-pay the said loan .... lol "It is intended that the CFA will be refinanced by a possible future equity issue.."

aimo

Nat, if you this this is bad .... should have tried being a holder of Afren !!! :-(

https://www.sfo.gov.uk/cases/afren-plc/

"For payment of corporate costs (regulatory and compliance and legal fees) and for general corporate purposes as approved by the Board and the Lenders....."

Serious issues if you need a loan this small to pay for "regulatory and compliance and legal fees..." .

aimo ....

Re-posted as site appears to be having difficulties once again in showing posts ;
-------------------------------------------
Upomega,

"Maybe they are adopting a cautious approach until they are completly happy with how the structure copes with things..."

Would explain why DV has been inspecting Rhum supply pipeline, back and forth for some time now .... looking for a leak perhaps (lol) as SQZ too were looking for more, esp as Wilphoenix recorded 10k which was constrained by topside equipment.

However, I'm not sure what's involved from this point on to "optimise and stabilise production" and how much, if any our 8kboepd will improve .... Fingers crossed for enhanced 2022 forward production guidance.

aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"Maybe they are adopting a cautious approach until they are completly happy with how the structure copes with things..."

Would explain why DV has been inspecting Rhum supply pipeline, back and forth for some time now .... looking for a leak perhaps (lol) as SQZ too were looking for more, esp as Wilphoenix recorded 10k which was constrained by topside equipment.

However, I'm not sure what's involved from this point on to "optimise and stabilise production" and how much, if any our 8kboepd will improve .... Fingers crossed for enhanced 2022 forward production guidance.

aimo & dyor

What I am surprised about, it's just 8kboepd !! Would think SQZ are too, hope they increase this figure substantially over coming weeks.

aimo

2020 Year-end oil and gas reserves of 61.0 mmboe (2019: 62.3 mmboe), so given we have ~60mmboe @ $15 barrel atm together with cash and equivalents of ~£160m, quick calculation, makes £812m, or circa 303p/s.

Remember SQZ have ZERO Debt to service and about to bring online before year end an additional estimated 8.5kboepd - 10kboepd net to SQZ. This additional revenue alone would be estimated at ~£265m net pa pre Opex. With estimated production for 2022 by SQZ at low estimate of 27.1kboepd and high est 33.6kboepd, net revenue would be low est £712m to high est £883m vs current Mcap of ~£440m

To sum that up .... SQZ are grossly UNDERVALUED.

aimo & dyor

All Time High .... HOORAY !! ;-)

Yesterday we put on 4pts with little in terms of volume (equal'ish buys vs sells ) but significant uplift in terms of number of trades (predominantly 'A' trades), around 3x our average. Today looking like a similar story, so I would guess large background orders being processed. ;-)

PS. DV making direct route back to Bruce atm .....

aimo & dyor

"Its only downside protection if oil goes up you still must sell at the agreed hedge price..."

Correct, hence anticipated none-revenue realised earnings from our hedging I estimate in the region of £29m for 2021.

Serious strategic error not getting R3 online faster and indeed being too eager getting hedging away at average of ~36p/therm for 2021. I know easy to say in hindsight (given 8p/therm low in 2020) so lets see what additional hedging they manage to get for 2022/2023. ATM our 2022 hedging average is ~40p/therm and 50p/therm 2023, where as futures summer 2022 currently 75p/therm and winter 2023 ~62p/therm.

Hedging primary task is to cover costs .... so as long as this has been achieved, fair enough ... but with R3 over-run and Columbus too I guess we are out of pocket on that score too.

One point to note is historically SQZ have made gains on our hedging so swings 'n' roundabouts come into play.

R3 / Columbus will make a material difference to all aspects of our business or for someone else ... so let's get pumping !!

aimo & dyor

DV just arrived back at Rhum manifold after following Rhum's feeder pipeline path at inspection rate of knots back from Bruce.

What next for DV !

DV had a little re-trace of route at approx 0.5nm out from Bruce, only one since leaving Rhum .... hummm

Few more late reported on Friday, £100k and £92k along with the £132k just before close to go with the £174k & £113k from Thursday and other +£100k trades during the week too.

Deep Vision now heading for Bruce Platform, following exactly Rhum's feeder pipeline path at inspection rate of knots. So is it, routine inspection happening or some form of an issue or even DD occurring, take your pick ! Me, I want it to be option 3.

aimo & atb & dyor

"then overnight to the subsea manifold that connects all 3 wells to Bruce., then onto R2. She's now on R1..."

So that begs the question why ! As only a matter of weeks ago BOKA POLARIS was on location at Rhum visiting said wells / manifold too.

More to these comings 'n' goings than meets the eye imo.

aimo.

DV just arrived on location at Rhum, once more.

And they say the Carry On films have stopped being made !!

aimo

"PS Also interesting that amount of 'housekeeping' that's been happening with Bruce platform recently too, all as a result of DD maybe, who knows ! Deep Vision has been like a shuttle service for some months now too....."

Yep, Deep Vision on its way back to Rhum !!! The everlasting saga continues ... wtf is happening with R3

ATD: 2021-08-27 17:33
ETA: 2021-08-28 10:00