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DV has left Bruce and returning to LERWICK ...

...maybe to pick up another Just Eat delivery ..... Greggs sausage rolls must have gone down a storm !

Lets hope the planned enhancement work for Keith is now complete too.

atb & aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"anticipating some kind of windfall tax... "

That would be just our luck !!! Although I would think the news blackout, on R3 and the never ending delays together with 'all things oil is bad' mantra is probably having a significant impact on our SP too.

Yep, gas futures were off to the races this morning ( >116p atm) .... pity we have our horse running in the donkey derby.

atb & aimo

What is it with all this constant 'to-ing and fro-ing' .... I know DV is an Offshore Supply Ship but come on !! Are Deep Vision doing moonlight jobs for Just Eat and delivering Big Mac's or Gregg's sausage rolls to Bruce for just 99p ....

Point of note, DV destination is shown as BRUCE - KEITH, not just BRUCE this time ! So probably work on Keith as per RNS "An intervention to restore flow from Keith was successfully carried out in late March 2021 and further enhancement work is planned in Q2...", Q2 I guess, has now become Q3 !

aimo & dyor

sasa,

Thanks for that .... however,

For me, I believe SQZ should be thinking long and hard on starting production from R3 in Q3 due to the financial implication of the 90 day clause and the resulting consideration vs revenue. For sure, I would expect SQZ to run their slide-rule over the figures should they wish to commence production in Q3.
If SQZ are targeting uninterrupted production on commencement of R3 and the figures don't add up, then I would expect the taps to be turned on at the end of the first week of October and no later than the second week. Unless of course, we have other factors involved that we are not aware of !

Day 305/70

aimo & dyor

Number of trades are up around 100% against the norm at this given point in the day although volume is nothing to shout home about.

aimo

Correction :

Using current Brent POO / Sept Gas Futures on our 2021 average production guidance rate of 25kboepd and current Q3 hedging, produces $57.64 unit boe post Opex, we do indeed receive $1.44m (£1.04m) per day.

atb

Upomega,

"Am i correct in saying that with current hedges and where gas is now we are making nearky a milion gbp per day..."

Using current Brent POO / Sept Gas Futures on our 2021 average production guidance rate of 25kboepd and current Q3 hedging, produces $60.94 unit boe post Opex, we do indeed receive $1.52m (£1.1m) per day.

aimo

Maverick,

"From that RNS, it implies that there will only be an update once Rhum3 & Columbus are BOTH in production?.."

Think you agree Maverick, that would be a ridiculous way to operate .....

AIMO & atb

gotabesirius,

"I thought it was due to come online in Q3?.."

From initial R3 RNS .... October 2020, "Rig operations are planned to last approximately 70 days. R3 is already connected to the subsea production infrastructure and it is expected that operations to commence production from R3 will take place in early 2021..."

Early 2021, is in my book Q1.

aimo

Just a small point about R3 delay .... so far, given we should of completed end of Feb, lets say March for those little unforeseen issues, ( over 5 months for a re-entry well) ..... On a very conservative £50boe @ 4500boepd net, to-date, SQZ's lost net revenue is approx £27m, run that through to EoY and we are looking at >£60,000,000, majority of which would flow straight to the bottom-line. That does not take into account the £millions£ incurred in cost / project overrun. Yes, you could argue 'more for our 100%', if that was SQZ's intention then why start in Oct 2020 .. for me I would rather have and extra ~£27,000,000 in the bank atm... In real terms, that would boost our CoH war chest by somewhere in the region of 25%.

Muckle, kit is ordered on a long lead-time, the industry doesn't work in JIT supply so for SQZ to operate like that on a major project would be incredible.

No-one is saying this project is easy, SQZ, please keep the market and us SH's informed.

aimo & dyor .

Dilberty,

Thanks for your comments, however, as I say, no matter how you spin it, R3 is still not in production, ineptitude, bad luck or by design, or combination of. This is not our first Rhum production well so a lot of what you are stating will have, should have, already been resolved imo, it's not as if this is a rush job ...lol

Also as mentioned an Op's update , particularly addressing the points you have made would not go a miss ..... eg, progress to-date, works to be completed and still on schedule for production in Q3 . After all, this is SQZ first major project to bring a well online for as long as I can recall, SH's and the market need to be kept informed ..... at this rate Columbus will be up and running first.

It appears SQZ are now buying time ..... but that's just my PoV !

aimo of course.

Day 303/70 (10 month anniversary tomorrow), R3 still not in production. Ineptitude, bad luck or by design, or combination of, you decide.

SQZ owe SH's an op's update at the very least, been over 2 months since Rhum's R3 Well Flow Test Results RNS, and 22 days since Boka DSV left site.

"The volumes flowed during the test are equivalent to over 10,000 boe/d.... It was always expected that the flow test results would be constrained by the surface test equipment..."

"Captain, she can’nae handle the pressure .. she can’nae take any more”... is this the reason for delay !

PS Second quote was from me and not the RNS btw.

aimo

flexmw,

"I'm still interested to hear the pre-presentation chat you dropped a hint on last week regarding KIST...."

Sorry flex, but there was NO chat about KIST just R3 and Rhum as per my post. Think you may have gotten hold of the wrong end of the stick.

atb & aimo

Almsivi,

Thanks for the informative post.

Afaik, Bruce has > 25% available capacities for water, gas and oil handling, (which I understand takes R3 into account) so R3 will not be limited by these. Just as well, should we get Eigg online and producing anywhere near Rhum, this available capacity will be required.

atb

"announcement of a new chairman for a major FTSE100 company....."

What announcement, I see no RNS !

"This is simply stunning news...." probably the worst selection choice as far as the union is concerned.

Could be a rough ride for both as he strives to improve productivity and efficiency in an attempt to turn around the BT tanker, which would include cutting probably, thousands of jobs ..... head to head all out confrontation is the probable outcome at some point .... but when !

aimo

Another interesting observation .... KIST : SQZ SP ratio is exactly 3:2 on tonight's close .... makes working out a cash / equity deal more straight forward ! lol

aimo

Muckle,

"Where's this imminent RNS anyway?...."

Very good question. I find it particularly strange that no communication whatsoever has taken place since Boka left Rhum, 2 weeks ago, not even a sniff of an op's update. As for R3, unless they get R3 online very very soon it will not happen until Q4, early October imo as the consideration payable to BP would, probably (due to the 90 days clause) in effect cancel out any R3 financial gains between now and EoY.

aimo

troubledseller et al,

Thank you ... :-)

atb

TroubledS,

I have been tracking and commenting on GRG 'sell off' consistently since they began at the start of year ...... you are correct, in that I too think "Something is afoot !..." and I believe it all hinges on R3 as it has done since we re-entered R3 late last year and was initially expected to finish Q1 this ....

aimo of course & atb