Member Info for NewKOTB

Very nice gap formed this morning ..... way too big to be ignored for long imo.

Humm, I think with BT's results today, it puts a shine on our results, hope the market see's that.

Wil57Woo .... Oh dear !!! Out of the Frying pan and into the fire it appears.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/corporation-tax-charge-and-rates-from-1-april-2022-and-small-profits-rate-and-marginal-relief-from-1-april-2023/corporation-tax-charge-and-rates-from-1-april-2022-and-small-profits-rate-and-marginal-relief-from-1-april-2023

This was always going to be the case Q1 2020 VS 2021 .... covid lockdown et al didn't kick in until end of March, whilst were were still in lockdown restrictions this quarter. .... watch Q2 2021 figures blow 2020 out of the water... Mr Market knows this and will make most of this so will Patrick .... watch his position grow significantly over the next quarter.

aimo

Wowwww .... 'all futures' from now until Feb 2022 are now ABOVE 101p/therm

SoS,

" I think the Board has done well to drag R3 on for as long as they have and shareholders should welcome that....."

The problem with that is SQZ may need approx up to ~90 days production to cover BP agreement costs, so unless they start up very, very shortly, it would be for very little financial gain for remainder of 2021. Of course, if SQZ leave it until first few weeks of October to begin R3 production then that would be very different and we are then quids in both in terms of BP consideration and withheld reserves.

aimo & dyor

Well, we now have Q4 21 futures asking 100.100p/therm, amazing .... SQZ really do need to get R3 sorted, pronto.

Thanks again .... shows :

Subsea maintenance - Rhum 3 (R3)
Activity
Boka-Polaris will be on site in the vicinity of the Rhum wells template conducting subsea maintenance work.

More twist 'n' turns than the The Onedin Line ..... hope ACW is writing a script as we speak , at this rate he will need a nest egg for retirement... Could title it 'Yo Ho Ho, No Barrel Of Rhum' ..... and SQZ think they are able to develop Eigg, project will probably end up being Scrambled !!! lol

Should Allalogie prove to be correct and further delays are to be announced, so be it, just appears to be disappointment after disappointment atm with R3, disheartening to say the least. Lets hope it's a 'quick fix'.

atb & dyor

Day 290/70 .... the saga continues ....

Appears she's still moored in Aberdeen, so unsure how you are able to confirm destination as R3 and works schedule, would appreciate a link. atb

"I think it is the case that the hedging protects the downside but does not constrain the upside. in addition, not all the production is hedged.."

That's for a 'put', we have 'swaps' afaik.

Yes, as stated, I estimate around 25% of our gas production, but no hedging on Brent ..... which is a bonus.

atb

Talking about gas futures btw ......

DEC21 100.360p/therm 7/27/2021 - 8:41 AM

2020 average market gas price was ~ 25p/therm and average market oil price was ~US$42/bbl . By comparison average prices in Q1 2021 have been ~50p/therm and ~US$60/bbl. So, I would have thought for H1 2021, average should be around ~70p/therm and ~US$64/bbl. That said, I have to say I'm particularly mindful of our, what I would class presently as relatively poor hedging, which will constrain our results some what at around ~25% of our gas production for ~35p/therm.

Quicker we have R3 online and producing the better .... btw ACW, what's the holdup with the RNS, although I could probably guess ... DRIP, DRIP DRIP... lol

aimo & dyor

Based on average production guidance from SQZ :

Using current POO $73/barrel, Gas 93p/therm, hedging of 20% gas production at ~40p/therm for 2022 in 20/80 split with $1.42/£ on very conservative production over 335 days, UNIT revenue $58.16boe post Opex $12.60/barrel(expected to fall sub $10/barrel) :

At est 30.35kboepd (Average guidance net production for 2022) US$1,765,273 / per day
335 days 30.35kboepd (net) US$591,366,302 pa

So, estimated revenue for 2022 (less opex) of circa £430m pa vs current Mcap of £409m. Clearly massive wriggle room in these figures, but it does show that SQZ is worth far more than 151p/s it's sat atm

In 2019 we managed £109m profit before tax ... when we only had 50% of BKR, no R3 or Columbus !

When you add in NO Debt, tax losses of ~£42m, very limited decomms, reserves of ~60mmboe 2P, CoH ~£100m atm it all adds to the extremely strong investment case...

aimo & dyor

Currently Aug 93.25p/therm .... amazing considering last year we hit a low of ~8p

Also, Dec 2021 & Jan/Feb 2022 futures not taken by anyone atm .... probably as their platform can't handle anything >99.999p... lol

R3 alone at 5kboepd current futures will be raking in ~£100m pa revenue gross to SQZ

aimo & dyor

Not a happy bunny atm .... DRIP executed this morning at 08:57 at 153p with 'at best' execution....

"so what are your thoughts?..."

First of all don't use expletives as they only get ******* starred out !

As BP have explicitly stated "As a result of these factors we expect a cash flow deficit in the second quarter..." then the market will be expecting this and treat results accordingly but will not stop them taking the mick in the first instance. That said, should performance exceed expectations with a +ve cash flow, then watch this baby fly. Given H1 as a whole has been +ve, H2 looking strong with futures too atm, BP is on track to end the year >350p imo

aimo & dyor

philjayjones,

Thanks for the first-hand info .... always best from the horses mouth as it were.

Yes, lets hope for RNS this week but not until after all the DRIPS have been processed. Once they have commissioned, it would be nice to have stabilised flow-rates that report not only R3 but Rhum as a whole too.

atb

philjayjones,

"The 3 big hitters you've mentioned there have already sold up though..." this is of course true as UKNS operator, which is why I said 'more interestingly', when referencing the other 3 who have all recently made NS acquisitions either directly or in-directly.

Chevron still hold non-operated interest in UKNS. ConocoPhillips hold significant production and exploration within the Norwegian North Sea sector, and area that I understand Mitch has made reference too. I believe that Marathon Oil are the only player of the 3 who have fully exited the NS with their sale to RRE in 2019. Siccar are looking to build their business through acquisitions in high quality, producing assets or portfolios, have Delek and Dagang Nexchange finished their shopping ..... hummm !

aimo & dyor

Forgot Siccar Point Energy Limited too.