Member Info for NewKOTB

Q2 results in a few weeks or so ..... they will be out of the park given prolonged elevated O&G prices recently ..... hence the downward pressure atm for the institutions to load up. Easily back above 320p after results, or even year high. imo

Could be looking for ~110p around 22nd then reversal to ~130p. imo

Whilst our SP remains below ~170p we are prime t/o target, even allowing for a tiny 30% premium on top of 170p. The recent move up from being stuck in the 120-130p range has been ridiculously overdue to the point of becoming a farce long ago.

Our VWMA(100) is still a sickly 126p too.

Currently over bought (although has been since late June), so our SP is either going to boom or level off given known news flow, lets see how the market or others takes R3 RNS being online and producing shall we !

aimo & dyor

Boka now arrive at Rhum .... :-)

Interesting quote from Malcy, " Worth every penny of its year high of 153p and potentially a great deal more, boom!"

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/07/oil-price-kistos-serica-zephyr-president-block-sdx-and-finally/

The word "potentially" should, imo be replaced with "soon to be".

aimo & dyor

Boka will be on-site this evening, so could be looking at RNS next week, although not entirely sure of her exact works program ( if anyone can shine some light on this !), plus-side, weather looking favorable for a change... fingers crossed .

Should give another 'little boost' to our SP next week.

aimo & dyor

https://clipground.com/images/ducks-in-a-row-clipart-17.jpg

Morning All,

Great RNS and coming in as expected at 7kboepd gross.

Columbus alone with an average Oil @ $67, Gas 60p/therm post opex, SQZ will be receiving ~$45,000,000 pa (330 days) net, post Opex.

Using current O&G pricing, this would rocket to ~$61,000,000 pa (net) post Opex

SQZ will have so much cash rolling in we will be finding it difficult to count it !!!!

We want some more I hear you ask ....

Make it so ......We have R3 online this quarter then Columbus online Q4 and followed by a massive 67% uplift in attributable BKR revenue in Q1 2022 (for ZERO CapEX btw), still NO DEBT to service and well in excess of £100m CoH.

PS Don't forget that Columbus will represent, at top end forecast, only around 10% of our production .... so I will leave it to you to work out the combined revenue come 1/1/2022 vs our present Mcap circa £410m

aimo and dyor

BT was forced down .... then, as if by magic, BT were notified of the now, primary holder of 12.1% of the company from a previously un-notifiable position ..... straight to 12.1% from a standing start as far as the market were concerned.

"Drahi’s pulled off an elaborate stealth raid to buy 12.1 per cent of the former state telecoms monopoly before the market realised what was going on....... Drahi is thought to have begun building a 2.9 per cent stake, below the public-disclosure threshold, about three months ago. He then struck last week, buying more through Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas from multiple sellers, borrowing some and using derivatives...."

Latest changes ... previous notification holding in brackets

Shareholder Register Analysis –
30 June 2021 No. of Shares % issued share capital
AXA Framlington Investment Managers 32,940,202 12.28% (12.15%)
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,155,045 10.50% (10.51%)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 19,347,234 7.21% (7.10%)
GRG UK Oil LLC 15,493,104 5.78% (unchanged)
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.03% (unchanged)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 12,836,158 4.79% (4.07%)
BlackRock 10,630,087 3.96% (unchanged)
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.90% (unchanged)
Janus Henderson Investors 10,088,531 3.76% (3.77%)
Interactive Investor 9,535,634 3.56% (new entry)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,874,580 2.94% (3.06%)

* Private client holdings

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 30 June 2021 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 1 July 2021, the Company had 268,153,998 ordinary shares in issue of which 25.72% is not held in public hands.

By jove, I'd say so ......

Thanks

"NB Strange how shares in issue now show as 25.72% not held in public hands has moved down significantly, on 14th June it stood at 36.59% when GRG held 10.88%.... could 25.72% be a typo !....."

Or then again ......

36.59% minus GRG holding as on 14/6 of 10.88%, equals, as if by magic = 25.71% (take rounding into consideration)

BINGO !

So typo or not !!!

Latest changes ....

AXA Framlington Investment Managers 32,572,241 12.15%
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,192,660 10.51%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 19,047,234 7.10%
GRG UK Oil LLC 15,493,104 5.78%
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.03%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 10,926,213 4.07%
BlackRock 10,630,087 3.96%
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.90%
Janus Henderson Investors 10,111,767 3.77%
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 8,194,580 3.06%

As at 1 July 2021, the Company had 268,153,998 ordinary shares in issue of which 25.72% is not held in public hands.

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

NB Strange how shares in issue now show as 25.72% not held in public hands has moved down significantly, on 14th June it stood at 36.59% when GRG held 10.88%.... could 25.72% be a typo !

Interesting sudden little pull-back ....

Rhum's IOC 50% is held by Equity Holder's Group FCM Trust, not sure how long that's been the case.

RTB,

"The Herald article seems to have been updated to "Serica said the Iranian government no longer has an interest in Rhum"...."

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19414008.north-sea-firm-growing-production-off-shetland-aberdeen/

Well, you can't get more accurate than from the horses mouth .... still not sure why SQZ have not made this OFFICAL atm .... stranger things have happened. Guess to date, it has 'nothing' to do with us !!!

atb

The BKR deal was always a doubled edged sword in terms of a deal visibility from the view of both investor and potential suitor.

Why so, well with a guaranteed staged increase of attributable receivables over a set period, it was not too difficult to see value come 2022 even way back in 2017 at the time of the deal. It's also not too difficult to see why we have been overrun with 'A' trades for month after month after month.

For a company to pull off a BKR deal the size of SQZ was indeed 'transformational' and we are only now, seeing this begin to be reflected in our SP.

It's just been a very difficult and most frustrating 3 years holding SQZ in terms of lack of capital appreciation .....

but now....

The invisibility cloak has finally been removed ..... we are front 'n' center, prime position in Harrods shop window of Mid-tier NS O&G companies.

aimo and dyor.

JTF,

"I think that the SP is at an all time high....."

That is so, but SQZ is still way undervalued. I'm expecting news on several fronts shortly.

aimo & dyor

Energy Transition Now - Episode 6 with Clara Altobell

https://www.westwoodenergy.com/news/video-podcasts/energy-transition-now-podcast-episode-6-with-clara-altobell

IANAA,

Interesting point IANAA and one too I have recently considered whilst having a shower this morning (too much information
I fear), amongst other scenarios, being more appropriate regarding Herald's reporting, particularly as the article remains unchanged and no rebuff / statement or RNS from SQZ.

Lets just say that a third party entity managed to gain control or in the process of, IOC's 50% of Rhum who have no constraints on them by UK/US alike, nudge nudge wink wink, say no more ! It would then make sense to acquire the other 50% too or flip it for a fat profit ... who would get away with such a deal, I would say probably a PE backed outfit. How much say HMG would have / want in the matter is questionable, I would say very little as it does 'clean things up' in a strange way esp when it comes to licence renewal and therefore aid our own energy security, (Rhum provides ~5% of UK gas needs) licence, which btw we have recently extended into 2023.

The IOC website, although lacking in information, maybe by design, was recently updated last month, which I find strange for what is in effect a 'dormant company'.

http://www.iocukltd.co.uk/

Also, Mr Nigel Hall has been acting as a person with significant control for IOC since 29th December 2020.

Of course this all assumes Iran are 'happy' to loose their foothold in the UKCS.

This week SQZ have certainly been cooking on gas (probably our very own) and next week could see the heat moved up a notch or two, maybe to Gas Mark 7 or above. With December futures approaching 100p/therm, that's not cheap.

aimo & dyor