Member Info for NewKOTB

"This is the Volcano that has been speculated as Mega Tsunami risk...."

That was my first thought .... god help us all if that was to happen, the Great Reset will be upon us ! The price of our BT shares will be the last thing to worry about when half of the island slips into the Atlantic.

Be interesting to see after hours today and if there are big mid-point trades too akin to Fridays.

Cracking day so far, on what is a really poor day across the markets.

Significant buying once again too, hummmm !!! (+13.5pts / +4.7%atm)

aimo & atb

Think what that clearly demonstrates is the need to sell asap, allowing someone else to fully benefit from plugging our reserves / production / revenues into their own. With very limited decom's the new owner could literally run our fields dry, not worry about reserve replacement and decom Bruce for peanuts in around 10 years after receiving ~£4-5bn in revenue. SQZ have never been or will ever be imo a successful drilling company, so we will either need to buy or farm-in near-term production or a producing asset, neither of which will be cheap as that boat sailed 12 months ago.

As I mentioned before, any sale would hinge on R3 ..... the initial 8kboepd was disappointing afaic, should we have revised flow-rate then I would like to see R3 at ~14kboepd gross which would be more inline with expectations as rig flow rates of 10kboepd was achieved whilst being restricted by top-side equipment.

PS I thought that YouTube video was a little skewed to the negatives, but that's just me !!

aimo & dyor

Muckle,

The 'advert' was posted sometime in August by Stellar Energy Advisors Group as far as I can make out, sorry can't be more accurate than that, so I would doubt SQZ are dotting the i's and crossing the t's just yet, but you never know.

atb

Serica Energy (UK) Limited (“Serica”) is offering a select group of companies the opportunity to acquire an interest in UKCS licence P2501, which covers Blocks 3/24c and 3/29c and includes the highly prospective North and South Eigg prospects.

Key points:

Acquire up to a 45% interest in two, highly prospective blocks, located in a mature hydrocarbon province with a proven hydrocarbon system and access to nearby excellent infrastructure;
North and South Eigg are directly analogous to the Rhum field, sharing amplitude anomalies indicative of excellent quality sands of the highly productive Rhum reservoir;
Participate in the drilling of the North Eigg HPHT exploration well, located in 110 m water, which has potential recoverable resources of 484 Bcf gas (Pmean) and 1,165 Bcf gas (P10) with associated condensate;
Success at North Eigg significantly de-risks the South Eigg prospect, which provides excellent upside of 422 Bcf gas (Pmean) and 939 Bcf gas (P10) with associated condensate;
In the event of success, the discovery(s) is planned to be developed as a subsea tie-back to existing infrastructure, for which there are multiple options.

https://www.stellarlimited.com/serica-uk-north-sea/

aimo & dyor.

PS I've notice several "This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view" today, sorry, but naughty step is still in operation for the time being. atb

Should we farm-out North & South Eigg and retain status as operator with 55% working interest, then this would open up a whole new level of valuation should drilling be successful. Could be looking to add ~70mmboe to our reserves, just need a partner or two, book the rig, drill HPHT well and complete tie-back .... "In the event of a North Eigg discovery, Serica would investigate creative options for HPHT subsea tie-backs to the Bruce facilities.."

aimo & dyor

Using $15/barrel P2's of 55mmboe down from 2020 EoY 61mmboe to account for 9 months 2021 production (8.1mmboe production for 2020) plus CoH ~£150M would give enterprise value of ~£750m ( 280p/s). That is before, I would hope a significant upgrade in reserves from our R3 data for P2's. Not sure what Marubeni P2's are for the Ithaca deal as that would produce a more accurate valuation figure for ourselves, using $15/barrel was the going rate last time I checked.

aimo & dyor

So it looks like Ithaca is offering $1bn (£730m) for a production base of max ~13.5koepd (or even 10.5kboepd).... Could be the reason behind the sudden climb in our SP given the real-time market metrics value comparison. SQZ will be producing ~2.5x to 3x with a Mcap of 2/3rd's that of the Ithaca deal .... once again this shows on latest metrics how undervalued SQZ really are. Not to mention all the other benefits of CoH ~£150m, no debt, operator of primary assets, Bruce, tax losses ..etc etc ...

----------------------------

"Marubeni also owns 5% to 8% stakes in the North Sea Columba fields, which together produce about 3,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day. It’s unclear whether these deposits have also been offered for sale.

A spokesperson at Marubeni declined to comment. Jefferies also declined to comment.

The MonArb fields produced 24,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the first three quarters of 2020, according to the OGA. Marubeni’s interest equates to almost 10,000 barrels a day......"

https://mklsupply.com/marubeni-retains-jefferies-to-market-its-north-sea-oil-and-gas-assets/

--------------
PS. Jefferies are our Joint Broker too.

aimo & dyor

So PE backed outfits continue their assault on NS assets.

"Ithaca, ..... said in August it had refinanced a US$1.225 billion reserve based lending facility and placed a US$625 million bond "to continue to pursue business growth ambitions".

So Ithaca still have ~£620m in the pot .... although I would like to think the pot will need a little topping up if they want us.

On the other-side of the coin, "JX Nippon also wants to sell its British North Sea oil and gas assets.." !!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/ithaca-energy-agrees-buy-marubenis-north-sea-assets-us-1-billion-sources-say-2174386

aimo

The carbon dioxide used by the meat industry is a by-product of fertiliser production, but fertiliser factories have been halting production due to soaring natural gas prices.

The government said it was monitoring the situation "closely".

Fertiliser producers have been struggling with natural gas prices that are at record highs as economies around the world begin to recover from the Covid crisis.

In the UK, lower winds have meant less renewable energy is generated, there have been outages at some nuclear stations, and there have lower flows into the UK of natural gas from Norway, pushing up the price of natural gas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58600583

Wowwww, some big trades declared after hours today all at mid-point.. hummm

News is getting ever closer imo, Monday maybe!!

17-Sep-21 16:13:50 187.90 85,000 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 159.72k O
17-Sep-21 16:13:39 187.90 95,000 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 178.50k O
17-Sep-21 15:51:43 187.20 93,000 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 174.10k O
17-Sep-21 17:30:44 191.651 11,819 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 22.65k O
17-Sep-21 17:06:07 187.80 9,000 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 16.90k O
17-Sep-21 16:04:50 187.90 50,000 Unknown* 187.00 188.60 93.95k O
17-Sep-21 16:35:26 187.80 20,683 Sell* 187.00 188.60 38.84k UT

"How come the market thinks debt for BT is an issue, but not RYA, when BT's Revenue smashes RYA's out of the air...."

Not a problem, RYA could service their debt with ticket sales. My neighbour last week flew out to Latvia from UK for a grand ticket price of 98p ..... although I think he got stung on the return ticket price of £6.99. Also the plane carried a total of 3 passengers .... two of which was them !

"Its okay we are linked to France....." Mega LOL :-)

Don't think our recent bull rise is a 'simple' re-rate, way too strong. It would be amazing if given current sweet-spot we find ourselves in that we have not attracted a full hive or two of bees around our honey pot. Up to our BoD to ensure we don't get stung !

aimo & dyor

It's not unreasonable for NBP price to average ~100p/therm for the next 12 months, Q3 already averaging >100p/therm. If so on 80/20 production split with top end estimated SQZ production 33.6kboepd, hedging of ~20% at ~40p/therm and Brent averaging £50/barrel, SQZ revenue over 330 days production would be in the region of £563m pa vs current Mcap of £494m.

Value is slowly being realised here but we are still a long way off fair value which I estimate to be >240p/s given Columbus online and 100% BKR then I would say that fair value then would easily be well in excess of >300p/s

aimo & dyor

From being over +20% up during the day to finish down ..... how is that possible, Brent / WTI can be wild, yes but never good old NS gas !

Wild, wild swing that I have never seen before on gas futures. Just highlights how easy the market can move.

and so the conviction buying continues ...

15-Sep-21 10:36:10 186.00 17,250 Buy* 185.80 186.00 32.09k
15-Sep-21 10:48:01 186.9499 13,529 Buy* 186.00 187.00 25.29k O
15-Sep-21 10:55:43 186.7941 8,030 Buy* 186.00 186.80 15.00k O

sasa,

"Or, maybe, there's something else behind it?.... "

Who knows, just glad to see some traction at long last but I do however have a funny feeling in my waters ..... either news is on the horizon or I have a UTI !!!
atb

aimo & dyor

Be nice to have Arran's 21kboepd fast-tracked given today's prices ... nice boost for owners and for us too.

Last Columbus update put production expected to commence in early Q4 2021 .....

atb

Yep, on the back of some serious buying, even though we are at an ATH.

15-Sep-21 10:36:10 186.00 17,250 Buy* 185.80 186.00 32.09k A
15-Sep-21 10:17:30 184.64228 15,157 Buy* 183.40 184.80 27.99k O
15-Sep-21 10:17:01 184.226 12,720 Buy* 183.40 184.80 23.43k O
15-Sep-21 10:16:27 184.226 21,358 Buy* 183.40 184.80 39.35k O

Those are some conviction buys or underwritten by Mr Leaky !!

Been decent large buys for several days now too.

aimo & dyor

Q4 futures already at 200p/therm or $160/boe ... wowwww !!