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BUY's vs SELL's almost equal today, NBP up, Brent flat, yet SP down >11pts (~5%). Do get the feeling as this fall totally unjustified ( outside of the rumored windfall ) that our SP is being positioned for a reason .....

Now I wonder what that may be ?

aimo & dyor

latpulldown,

Thanks for that, although I'm fully aware what the 'new' mgt have achieved in repositioning CHAR but always good to remind newbies and as for me, today is validation, 'icing on the cake' for holding my position to a lesser or greater degree, through extreme highs and lows since early 2009. Little did I know then that my free bus pass would arrive sooner than CHAR making, finally, their long awaited and promised 'transformational' discovery.

atb

After many, many long years thinking this dog had been embalmed for all eternity, only to be resurrected by the new (not so new) mgt team..... my belief has returned.

Well done CHAR .... now lets push on and make this count so finally, long suffering SH's may ultimately see the CHAR story end on a high for all.

aimo & dyor

Well, SP back to Q3's 2021 late Septembers high, sigh !! Since then in Q4 we have added Columbus ~3500boepd net to our production, plus an additional net attributable BKR revenue increase of 66.7% (equivalent to ~9000boepd) on 1/1/22 for zero CapEx. The average NBP spot in Q4 was 226p/therm vs 118p/therm in Q3 and CoH has increased to the tune of est £55m in Q4 ( equal to 20p/s) to est >£200m at YE, approx 35% of MCap..... Oh, you guessed it, SQZ have ZERO debt, virtually unknown in the world of upstream producers, yet SQZ struggles to keep its head above 240p/s

Added a few more today and those that sold higher up may well be looking for their re-entry point too imo

PS NBP Feb up today too, now sat at 222p/therm after UK closing on Friday at 205p/therm.

PPS. See our infamous PR machine is at a FULL-STOP atm ...... sigh once more !

aimo & dyor

Deleting sb > "Depleting" ... lol, sorry !!

"Depleting the reservoir in a few months won't increase Chariots Market Capitalisation."

Deleting potential 4.5 TCF in a few months .... that will do for me .. lol

muckle,

Yep, 235p which our SP dropped below end of 2021 .... so only a few days into the 6 months as we stand. That said, would not be at all surprised to see a share buyback to support the SP that would allow ACW et al to pass 'GO' and collect $millions$ of free LTIP's. Also the 235p is another reason why I can not see SQZ announcing a massive Special Dividend (+20p/s), although our cash hoard and future CapEx ( still unknown ) will probably allow for one, unless our SP re-rates substantially. Too much 'nest feathering' afaic with our board in recent years ... try buying with your own cash like the rest of us for a change.

aimo & dyor

The old gang back together .....

atb & gla

QC,

" I would expect these figures to blow out significantly to at least GBP 50 mln for the unrealised mark-to-market losses...."

Agree, unrealised for 2021 will be rather large, I have ~£51m for H2 2021, plus declared £30.3m H1, making ~£81.4m for 2021 .... :-(

"Perhaps I have missed something but I do not recollect management articulating clearly what the hedging strategy is? Cover expected Capex?..."

No, don't think you have missed it ...... the only reference is " Company’s strategy remains to protect commodity pricing for a
proportion of its future production....". If it is for CapEx, now that would be interesting as we are yet to see any figures of any kind for N Eigg drill, nothing, zilch !

"What I find strange is that the strikes on the swaps have not moved up proportionally as the price of gas has increased which leads me to believe that they are only trying to hedge the increasingly slender tail risk of a return of severely depressed gas prices which I think is incredibly remote at this juncture..."

Agree, there is so much to be gained and indeed lost due to hedging as such SQZ should have the skill set to take advantage of these wild markets, unfortunately they don't imo and I could give you 81.4m reasons why !

aimo & dyor

Don't worry BP have not paid any NS corporation tax since 2018 due to available UK tax losses, I would expect that to continue.

As I understand it SQZ have atm £26.3m (2019: £25.2m) of UK corporation tax losses. In 2020 accounts shown ~£5m in corporation tax and ~£43m in 2019. At the same time Shell and BP have not paid any corporation or production tax on oil operations in the North Sea for the three years between 2018 and 2020.... "The firm further stated it had not paid corporation tax on its North Sea operations due to tax losses in previous years".

SQZ have ring fence tax losses of £46.1m available as at 31/12/20 (2019: £40.2m) which form part of total tax losses of approximately £72.4m (2019: £65.4m) that are available indefinitely for offset against future trading profits that includes the £26.3m for corporation tax losses. Lets see where we stand once 2021 accounts are published, until then we don't know the actual financial impact, if any, these calls for a windfall tax of an additional 10% to corporation tax, deferred or otherwise, will affect SQZ.

Also our 'new' CFO, Andy Bell can mitigate these calls to bite off the hand that feeds them in terms of UK energy security, with std accounting, which shouldn't be too difficult I hope. More tax, less investment as Aleksandr Orlov would say, 'SIMPLE's' !

Problem is media headlines will persist until Boris makes a call. SP may take a hit on actual news, until then the market will take advantage of the poorly informed once more.

https://ogv.energy/news-item/bp-and-shell-avoid-tax-in-the-north-sea-for-three-years

aimo & dyor

"Investment in the UK North Sea next year will likely remain near 20-year lows, according to Wood Mackenzie, despite current high oil and gas prices....

Up to $10 billion of UK offshore assets could be up for sale. According to Boroujerdi, bidders could include “boutique acquirers such as trading houses or new privately-backed management teams" plug the gap.....

Consolidation is likely to be a driver as investors see value in increased scale and operating efficiencies…Neptune Energy’s rumored merger with Harbour Energy could hint at larger regional tie-ups to come...."

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14222794/uncertainty-clouding-uk-offshore-prospects-beyond-2022

"Wood Mackenzie analysis says that UK oil and gas operators are projected to record around $17bn in cash flow for last year, and approximately $18bn this year.."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/oil-gas-companies-operating-north-141700866.html

Merger or takeover is undoubtedly on the cards here .... which will it be though !

Would love a merger with AA's KIST if no outright t/o but that's just me. Lots of reasons why ACW et al would consider that if the deal could be 'structured' to suit their own aspirations going forward. If revenue forecasts for 2022 are to be inline with 2021 as many analyst are predicting then SQZ have their days numbered esp as our net attributable revenue just increased from BKR to the tune of +66.7%, plus added production from both R3 and Columbus too.

aimo & dyor

Well, at least we finished up on the week, closed 244p, up 3 whole pennies, or 6 half-pennies (remember those tiny little bu$$ers) !! Not much to show for 100% ( 66.7%) uplift in revenue for zero CapEx, vast majority of which will go straight to the bottom-line. NBP Feb finished up ~34% and Brent ~5% on the week. This week alone SQZ added ~5.5p/s cash ( post Opex ) to our CoH, which makes up ~35% of our Mcap atm. Oh, don't forget SQZ have ZERO debt to service too. Tiny volumes traded today, with nothing over 10k of shares, only ~300k of shares traded in total inc UT.... When will the market see what we see is the question, or are prying eyes already upon us.

Have a good w/e all.

aimo & dyor

Not just the UK shutting down reactors, Germany was the latest EU to shut half of its reactors end of 2021 for good.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/31/germany-pulls-plug-half-nuclear-power-plants/

CB, you are correct in that a replacement will be needed, wind, solar or gas, you know what my money is on during these cloudy, cold, still winters days.

atb

SQZ SP should be much, much higher, atm 100% BKR making circa~ £780m pa at these prices, post opex.

Particularly like this quote,

"..Right now the asset hunters have raised the flag, if you own an asset or your company is a collection of them then someone is coming for you make no mistake….."

91% BoT trades today, no real large trades, decent number of trades, 1098. Good few days with NBP Feb closing up 9% today and 27% yesterday.

atb

Just to add, I first noticed the Stellar listing for Eigg was removed just before the Ops RNS update in December that had an, imo, 'hidden' entry stating "A rig has now been contracted for the drilling of the high-impact North Eigg exploration well in the summer of 2022..." No mention of rig name, for how long on contract or who with etc, just a 'sneaky' one line entry into our Ops update. Compare that to previous rig announcements it's a little lacking on details to say the least, almost as if SQZ wanted to keep it low profile. So are the two linked I wonder !

The mysterious missing Eigg mystery continues .... this is one for Scooby Doo and the Mystery Machine

aimo & dyor

Strong Reversal This Morning from a weak opening ..... :-)

Just to follow on from my previous post, I can confirm our farm-out mandate that was listed publicly for several months between August and end of November last year has now been removed.

https://www.stellarlimited.com/mandates/

"Stellar is currently engaged in several confidential divestment processes, which are discreet as our clients have chosen not to disclose to the market that they are divesting the asset or company..."

So, are we in final discussions now or have SQZ informed Stellar not to be publicly or otherwise, listed anymore.

aimo & dyor