Member Info for NewKOTB

94% of trades this morning are BoT's... slowly walking it down ... wonder why !!! (lol)

-6pts (-2.34%)

NBP holding well above 200p/therm and Brent looking likely to break $90 barrel next week.

aimo & dyor

Flexmw,

Interesting he didn't reply to your query but manage to answer a later one ..... maybe he's ignoring yours !!

atb

Back to some large delayed dark pool trades once again today ...

Volume 1.23m, only 74% BoT's today as I noticed it had a lie-in this morning, probably exhausted from yesterday!

SP clawed its way back to decent blue by early afternoon, only for the US open to drag in down.

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-27T16:35:13.993 GBX 256 144915 £370982.4 UT AIMX P
2022-01-27T15:33:30.200 GBX 256 74041 189544.96 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T12:26:10.057 GBX 255 73222 186716.1 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T12:25:36.103 GBX 255 68193 173892.15 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T16:09:06.893 GBX 256.332 55000 140982.6 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T16:08:44.910 GBX 256.332 55000 140982.6 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T09:36:10.600 GBX 255 27186 69324.3 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T09:35:56.183 GBX 255 27186 69324.3 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-27T08:07:45.293 GBX 254.5 25000 63625 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-27T16:47:10.650 GBX 256 23705 60684.8 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-27T16:47:02.787 GBX 256 20000 51200 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

aimo & dyor

Flexmw,

I too would think it's an assumption, but given SQZ like to be the operator and have stated that as a preference when evaluating acquisition opportunities, why has he set WI at 25%. Other than Erskine (18%), none of our other assets come even close to 25%, appears over cautious to me given his experience.

Thanks for asking. atb

These .... "There" ... lol

Nice to see his revenue for 2022 @ $1.05bn.... (£770m) which is in-line with my estimate of £766m

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Thanks for that .....

Interesting that he has 25% WI for Eigg prospect, is it not !!

So who is he expecting to gain the other 75% !!!!

aimo

Issue many investors have with CHAR is its history and its ability to deliver.

Add on the difference to previous CHAR transformational events, this one is real, with a known and looking likely to be a massive opportunity as such, how would a HNWI or alike come on board. Place orders to fill way below bid. FWIW, I think that is what we are seeing here atm.

No worries here for me, just need to sit and watch, if presented with an opportunity to add more, I will gladly take it.

atb & aimo

These is a distinct difference between a 'leak' and 'those in the know', just saying.

aimo & dyor

What value could you put upon keeping data safe I wonder..... maybe DARK are already working with UK government !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60144498

Morning, to follow on from yesterdays post ....

"Interesting that these two have been singled out .... Harbour Energy (formed from merger of Chrysaor and Premier Oil ) and SQZ. Read through to me, it would make sense for Harbour (backed by Chrysaor PE) to easily snap up SQZ imo. Add in the fact the latest known user of our 'secretly' contracted N Eigg rig, Transocean Paul B. Loyd Jr was to Chrysaor Q3 2021...."

Harbour (aka Chrysaor et al) contracted Paul B from Oct 2020 until Aug 2021, then a new contract from Aug 2021 until Sept 21, which was then extended until Oct 21. SQZ wanted a rig during summer 2022, which now look like its contracted for Q3 2022 and I'm unable to find Paul B out on contract from Oct 21, so why did SQZ need to push back drilling until Q3 ? Historic day-rate for Paul B was $160k, btw, hope SQZ have takeout 'Green Peace' insurance. Just saying !

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:738026/mmsi:576364000/imo:8752934/vessel:PAUL_B_LOYD_JR

aimo & dyor

Very high number of trades reported today, 1620, volume 2.24m with 86% of those BoT trades.

Significantly more interest in SQZ of late.

No really large trades reported.

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-26T16:35:02.247 GBX 259.5 53236 £138147.42 UT AIMX P
2022-01-26T11:17:35.663 GBX 248 34754 86189.92 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-26T09:27:33.820 GBX 246.5 31038 76508.67 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-26T12:30:56.920 GBX 252.681 30000 75804.3 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-01-26T11:17:14.327 GBX 248 25334 62828.32 Off-Book XPOL RFPT P XPOL
2022-01-26T11:12:07.217 GBX 248.5 25000 62125 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-01-26T12:56:48.987 GBX 254.5 22500 57262.5 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-26T09:18:45.803 GBX 246.5 20000 49300 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-26T14:23:42.207 GBX 250 19803 49507.5 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

Dickupham,

Agree fully, hence why it's time for the SQZ train to pull into the station.

You have to wonder how many of our major holders, many of whom, like ourselves have been aboard the SQZ train for many years and they have not really altered their position to a lesser or greater degree ( other than GRG's +18% !! ). These, loyal holders must now be viewing SQZ through the same spectacles as you and I and can not help but think if I were to be approached for an irrevocable undertakings, ~350p/s, that I would most likely view it as a gift horse and take the offer, so I have no doubt major holders would too.

aimo & dyor

"but just confirmation that production is three years away..."

What the 'ell do investors think, fickle lot, it not just a case of drill a hole and pumping away ... oh err !

CHAR will make a success of this just a matter of the market seeing what is in front of them .... once the said milestones are completed value will be added for sure. In the meantime, chill and don't use leverage.

aimo

Dickupham,

The Board may not have any option should an acquirer obtain irrevocable undertakings from 4 or possibly 3 now, of our major holders.

I would like to think that our board will do what is best for the owners, us shareholder and agree a deal. I find it amazing that we have not had an approach, one can only assume we have done and our board have rejected it, as they can do if 'they' alone feel it materially undervalues SQZ ( not to mention self interest ). There is also no requirement for them to notify the market of such an approach. GSK has had several approaches recently from Unilever for their consumer arm, none of which were ever notified to the market until recent GSK market update when the cat's head was poking out of the top of the bag !.

aimo & dyor

"Stifel’s analysts pointed to Serica Energy (SQZ) and Harbour Energy (HBR) as examples of stocks that could benefit from gas prices soaring further as a result of the crisis..."

Interesting that these two have been singled out .... Harbour Energy (formed from merger of Chrysaor and Premier Oil ) and SQZ. Read through to me, it would make sense for Harbour (backed by Chrysaor PE) to easily snap up SQZ imo. Add in the fact the latest known user of our 'secretly' contracted N Eigg rig, Transocean Paul B. Loyd Jr was Chrysaor Q3 2021. Just saying !

https://bit.ly/3GYGk90

aimo & dyor

TH,

You are correct to ask that, although ROI is an important factor, the market will look at SQZ's EV where as a suitor will look at ROI metrics. Both of which will be amazing in their own way imo.

It is possible SQZ may have a negative EV come end of Q2, however that would be dependent upon many variables, not least the price of commods, when we pay our major CapEx out, taxes ( windfall or otherwise), Bruce scheduled downtime and our receivables. That said, even with significantly reduced NBP, I would still say come EoY we will or have been in a negative EV at some point in 2022 given current MCap. PS, ZERO debt helps that cause greatly too.

Don't think I have ever known a NS producer to have -EV, so the chances of that actually happening are remote, therefore if my assumption is in anyway possible, SQZ will need to either re-rate or will be t/o imo. Which is it to be ?

aimo & dyor

IRT,

SQZ stated, "Strong December sales revenue to be received in January 2022..." so as you quite rightly stated, SQZ are yet to receive Dec revenue, however to counter that SQZ also stated that "November / December 2021 net cash flow sharing due to be settled in Q1 2022.." So I would guess that SQZ are 'in pocket' post Opex / hedging to the tune of ~£20m to £30m net, if now paid. So far this month, I would also like to think we have added and additional ~£51m (post Opex / hedging). Therefore I would estimated current cash resources (£243m) + Jan outstanding receivable (£51m) to be ~£294m vs current Mcap of ~£630m.

As you pointed out, to which I agree, "Serica look very cheap..." not matter how you do the math.

With full BKR, the cash build over the next few months on run up to Q3 when major CapEx is due will be as far from ordinary as you can get.

atb

aimo & dyor

Dickupham,

The large trades were facilitated through dark pool transactions so impossible to say if they were buy or sell although to me appears majority were both ie, a share shuffle !

aimo & dyor

Muckle,

"Merger, sale, acquisition? ..... can feel it in my water!...."

You would like to think so ... although as I can vouch for, can also be old age catching up on you too.

Another large late, late one reported last night in addition to the ones I previously posted.

Taking volume traded to + 3.33m ... afaik, biggest daily amount for many years, since Oct 2018.

In general volume has been well elevated since early Sept 2021 when it broke out of its almost static 3 year trading range.....
;-)

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-24T18:39:42.000 GBP 2.28458 143838 328609.418 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP ECHO

aimo & dyor

Some massive trades today ...... most of which late reported.

High Volume too, over 3.2m, all things considering a good day with NBP also closing up 17.5% @ 222p/therm

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-24T14:37:48.510 GBX 229.5 431380 £990017.1 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T14:38:01.347 GBX 229.5 431380 990017.1 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-24T14:22:44.303 GBX 228.5 200000 457000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T10:03:00.263 GBX 229 151253 346369.37 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T10:03:12.703 GBX 229 151253 346369.37 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-24T14:22:07.127 GBX 228.5 151121 345311.485 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T14:36:38.997 GBX 229.5 125000 286875 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T14:36:51.970 GBX 229.5 125000 286875 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-24T14:21:52.203 GBX 228.5 116871 267050.235 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T16:35:05.657 GBX 229.5 68341 156842.595 UT AIMX P
2022-01-21T17:35:17.000 GBX 235.5 60247 141881.685 UT AIMX N
2022-01-21T18:55:14.000 GBP 2.3483 53193 124913.1219 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP ECHO
2022-01-24T10:06:29.020 GBX 229 31398 71901.42 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-24T10:44:58.517 GBX 225.735 31049 70088.46015 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-01-24T09:41:30.970 GBX 229.664 30505 70059.0032 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-01-24T13:24:52.690 GBX 229 28029 64186.41 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-24T14:04:28.187 GBX 227 26165 59394.55 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-01-24T12:44:47.930 GBX 226.5 25121 56899.065 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-01-24T15:15:07.350 GBX 230 25000 57500 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-01-24T10:41:44.323 GBX 227 24182 54893.14 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-01-24T09:41:45.183 GBX 229.5 23322 53523.99 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-01-24T09:10:40.920 GBX 231 22509 51995.79 AT AIMX P ALGO