New Year , New Fag Packet !!1 Jan 2022 15:32
Ok ...... here we go, hope your head is clear !!
Starting with our Nov 2018 - June 2021 mean of 120p less ~15% (Erskine) = Leaves BKR @ 102p
End of 2018 we moved from 40% to 50%, increase of 25%
End of 2019 we moved from 50% to 60%, increase of 20%
End of 2021 we moved from 60% to 100%, increase of 66.7%
Assuming that 40 to 50% (+25%) was already priced in come Nov 2018 I shall ignore this increment.
Right..... first remove Erskine ~15%
120 - 15% (Erskine) = 102p
Add on 2020 we moved from 50% to 60%, increase of 20%
102 + 20% = 122.4p
Add on 2022 we move from 60% to 100%, increase of 66.7%
122.4 + 66.7% = 204p
Add back in Erskine
204 + 18 = 222p
I now assume that R3 production can be ignored as it replaces lost BKR performance over last 3 years
So that leaves Columbus to add on at est ~+12%
222 + 12% = 248p/s
So ~248p appears to me to be where we should settle for the moment, this does of course also ignores the substantial additional cash build during H2 2021, est at +£100m (37p/s), leaving circa £200m CoH for EoY 2021 if included would mean :
248 + 37 = 285p/s
The key to the above 285p is it ignores the recent utter madness of the past 6 months NBP, no doubt something HR will continue to peddle come Tuesday.
As mentioned, very simplistic view, the unknown factor is how much of future BKR net revenue has / was / not priced into the starting 120p. So for me any weakness should be viewed as buying opportunity that may take the market a little while to correct whilst NBP frenzy continues esp when set against more detailed none fag packet revenue projections of 100% BKR + Erskine + Columbus, 2P's and CoH.
aimo & dyor.
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