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Amazing a certain poster on here talking about every tick down on NBP but barely touch on the escalating gas price of last 6 months ... lol

PS Will see NBP rise next week as EU is it by cold blast and winter takes hold with Putin certain to up the anti once more plus Germany pulls the plug on half its nuclear power plants today and other EU states decommission coal and nuclear too.

CaneToad,

"So Serica's break-even cost is lower than 25p/therm?.."

lol, you know that's not what I'm saying per se, however to indulge you ...

As Flexmw posted, "Full year 2020 average market gas price was approximately 25p/therm and the average market oil price was approximately $43/bbl equating to a combined price of approximately $20/boe before realised cash hedging income of approximately £12.3 million.." there is significantly more to calculating b/e than using standalone price per therm.

The point I was making ( as you probably well know ) is even when NBP hit super low in H1 2020 of 8p/therm SQZ were able to show a profit.

FYI, Historically using Brent $45 barrel you only needed NBP spot of just 16p/therm in order to realise our Opex of $15.12/boe for H1 2020. Opex for 2021 will be even lower imo too.

Suggest as a newbie on this board ( although I see you are an experienced poster of +2000 posts in just 6 months and you also post on other O&G boards too ), that you take time to read, in the first instance, our presentations on Serica's site if you are a serious investor in SQZ that is.

https://www.serica-energy.com/presentations

PS. As for bad smell I see it has returned this morning and also spreading its 'love' on KIST now too.... lol

aimo & dyor

Late reported :

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-30T17:55:25.000 GBX 241.73 49538 £119748.2074 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO

Once more no real large orders at all today following on from yesterday ... ~88% BoT trades, with 1014 shares (exactly twice the 507 from yesterday) traded being the preferred amount. Sells significantly outnumbered buys, so assume a large order in the background that will run over to tomorrow or maybe reported later this evening. Institutional holders remain unchanged. Half day trading tomorrow then the magical day arrives .... atb

SP 243p (+10p / +4.29%)

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-30T16:35:15.880 GBX 243 44754 108752.22 UT AIMX P
2021-12-29T18:23:22.000 GBP 2.35123 26399 62070.12077 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP ECHO

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Thanks for that .... just to add :

As of 15/12/21, 2021 average NBP Sport prices :(p/therm)

Q4 To 15/12, 214.45p/therm
Q3 118.81p/therm
Q2 64.79p/therm
Q1 49.82p/therm

ps Even with the super low NBP spot price of 8p/therm in 2020 when average market gas price was approximately 25p/therm SQZ still made a healthy post tax profit.

pps SQZ remain DEBT FREE too with over >£200,000,000 cash.

aimo & dyor

It keeps coming back ... lol

Even at 211p/therm, in just over 24 hours that 211p will be the same as us receiving 351p/therm for our BKR.

All my home rapid test kits come stamped "MADE IN CHINA" ..... lol, Oh the irony.

Over the last four sessions (using the backdrop of NBP) our SP has been played, driven down and yesterday closed below ACW / MF's LTIP target of 235p for them to receive £millions£ in free shares. Maybe now, main market listing will be pushed higher up agenda or god forbid, support our SP with substantially improved PR too.

Too easy for our SP to be manipulated and as such, SQZ will continue to be targeted as and when.

aimo & dyor

No real large orders at all today for a change ... ~85% BoT trades drove the SP down, with 507 shares traded being the preferred amount. Institutional holders remain unchanged.

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-29T11:25:41.863 GBX 237.5 50000 118750 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-29T17:23:22.000 GBX 235.123 26399 62070.12077 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-12-29T11:25:41.863 GBX 237.5 25000 59375 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2021-12-29T10:42:10.673 GBX 237.5 25000 59375 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

PS Even with today's NBP 236p/therm, Brent $78 barrel, SQZ with hedging post Opex will be receiving ~£1,000,000,000 pa (pre tax) against current Mcap £625m on average production, with ~£200m CoH ATM too. We have a certain poster that thinks SQZ is not worth investing in ... lol, really

aimo & atb

HBLU,

Morning,

"From Saturday, 100% cashflows from BKR!..... "

Or JUST over 18 hours trading time remaining ... massive 66.7% BRK net revenue uplift for ZERO CapEx that our SP will find it impossible to ignore imo.... icing on the cake, SQZ remain utterly and totally DEBT FREE too.

Hope all had a restful time over the festive period with you and loved ones remaining safe and well.

A new year awaits us with all the joy and love that will bring.

aimo & dyor

HR's Shorts to Close by End Of Day as they will not risk Putin making a move on Ukraine over the festive period. Better still we have an offer for 350p/s that will burn the shorter's, now that would be lovely.

We all know NBP will need to settle but the fact remains even at 270p/s SQZ is way under fair value, even more so now.

aimo

Mommur,

Firstly, guilty ... lol, not at all, everyone have their own calls to make for various reasons. The important thing is, you were in to allow you to exit.

I too considered taking 52,000 off the table as SQZ was running hot .... decided not to as 1/1/22 is only around the corner and who know's who or what that may bring out of the woodwork.... Will we see ~265p anytime soon, I think so.

PS Only 23 trading hours remaining until 100% BKR.

PPS Didn't expect such a rapid drop tbh, maybe as I forgot about this being an AIM stock !!!

aimo & dyor

Any shorts will close today as leaving them open over extended Xmas break, with Putin liable to do anything would spell disaster for the shorter's.

PS. Start of the week NBP's futures climbed ~35%, so only back to square one with this two day fall.

PPS. Heat has come out of our SP with RSI of 56.6 atm .... so would be looking for SP to stabilise now :-)

aimo & dyor

Morning,

Average for past 15 years spot price is ~52p/therm (excluding last 6 months).

SQZ regardless of the fall in these stupidly high futures, SQZ is still making a massive amount and will probably have its Mcap in cash come results in April, remember SQZ have ZERO DEBT too.

Lower the SP more chance of a successful approach come 2022 and our +66.7% rise in revenue for ZERO CapEx will almost entirely go to the bottom line .... at 260p/therm, SQZ will still be adding 100,000,000 ( pre opex / tax) cash to its coffers each month with current Mcap of ~£650m plus SQZ have >£200m in cash atm

Our SP is being targeted by pro traders atm, use the fall to your advantage, just needed to watch the multiple timestamped BoT trades yesterday.

PS It only takes Putin to say or do something and these futures will reverse back up in a flash. Either way the actual shortage of gas has not been resolved so will find its own floor this winter. My guess is 180-240p/therm range.....

PPS. Will take my hat off to SQZ if they managed to get any hedging away over the last 2 weeks.

Oh, btw, please, please, please don't use HR thread ... start a new one as you will only get him to keep posting on here, none of us want that, trust me.

aimo & dyor

Looks like Putin has sucked the West into his ploy .... hence the rapid retrace of NBP after massive rise last week and reason why SQZ has been targeted today.

"Russia is not preparing a military invasion of Ukraine, its ambassador to the European Union was quoted as saying on Thursday...."

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/russia-not-readying-military-invasion-ukraine-2397286

Then on the other hand you have, "More than 1,000 paratroopers and over 250 vehicles and aircraft will be involved in the exercises later this week.."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/23/russia-hold-paratrooper-drills-near-ukraine-simulating-capturing/

Fall of SQZ SP has nothing to do with our prospects going forward, just the market taking cash from PI's.

aimo & dyor

See we have a very active BoT on the bid today. Multiple small trades 10 to 20 at a time with same timestamp slowly pulling the SP down. No other NS gas play has been targeted like this at all today. I continue to add, albeit in small amounts, with bigger orders placed, ready and waiting if required.

NBP Futures have been radio rental (mental) this week .... so expected futures fall is not unexpected at all !!! Remember, only last Monday, NBP Jan 297.5p/therm .... so still up. Only little over 30hrs of trading window remaining until +66.7% ....

aimo & atb

HBLU,

Yep, NI was a right pain in the rear on this board and as you correctly pointed out had / has multiple avatars. He/she/it works for a pro trading outfit that specialise trading on fear, esp when it come to their shorts. Best to ignore as you say .... but on no account continue to reply on its thread, just report it.

PS Added just a tiny few more this morning.

atb & aimo

aimo & dyor

Morning All,

Appears as if HR has gone short on SQZ .... big mistake imo. We had a massive ... and I mean MASSIVE rise on Tuesday's futures +21%. It's only natural for futures to fall back. Remember these are just futures, not spot. PS Don't think HR knows about the +66.7% in little over 32 hours of trading window !!

As bangrak mentioned "Any weakness (SP) will be bought into.."

Maverick, interesting thought, " are all these massive trades of the last few months institutions positioning themselves"..... Be great if that was to occur as it would signal intent afaic ( not sure what atm though ) from our board, something that has been lacking recently. Although I have positioned myself for something else, fingers crossed for either outcome. atb

aimo & dyor

Opss, two mistakes by me in one day ....

Tweet was from the unofficial Serica Energy account, no mention of it on the Official site :-( WHY NOT !!

Although the Herald reports Mitch as saying, " ....review its dividend policy in expectation of “very significant” shareholder returns on the back of record high gas prices...". I know it implies via dividend, but they are not going to say via an outright sale now are they .... not yet anyhow. Good news either way though.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19611149.serica-says-significant-returns-store-thanks-record-gas-prices/

Official account of Serica Energy
https://twitter.com/SericaEnergyplc

atb dyor aimo

MissDosh,

Thanks for the link .... interesting that SQZ felt the need to highlight ‘Significant Returns’ once more ..... as I mentioned earlier, is that in terms of dividend or an outright sale ? As there was NO mention of significant returns only 2 weeks ago in our Ops Update which stated "Growing cash balances offer increasing options for further investment, acquisition, and distributions. Serica's Board continues to evaluate the optimum balance between these elements to deliver further shareholder returns. .." then I'm leaning toward sale.

IMO, Significant is NOT a bog standard dividend .... even if it's raised to 10p/s

atb & aimo, dyor