Member Info for NewKOTB

Ex Div 30-Dec-21, only a matter of 9 sessions away ...

"....You only need DT ( or ano) & Altice together to control >30%..."

Oh, wait a minute .. !!!!!!

Sure 18% was not a finger in the air amount for Altice ....

Interesting times for those who are not blinded by the 6 month rule.

aimo % dyor

Fleccy,

Also the point about not making a move for another 6 months is irrelevant afaic .... just need to read the line from the RNS that states, "Altice UK reserves the right to set the restrictions in Rule 2.8 aside.."

Ask yourself, why go from ZERO to 18% in such a tiny time-frame and do it so covertly. imo, Altice is expecting BT to trigger the 6 month release clause due to either :

c) if BT announces a "whitewash" proposal (see Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9) or a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); or
d) if there has been a material change of circumstances (as determined by the Takeover Panel)

You only need DT ( or ano) & Altice together to control >30%, or more likely imo, the decision by BT to spin off a % of OR as 'material change' would allow the door to be opened wide for Altice.

aimo & dyor

fleccy,

"Undervalued Telecom sector.."

Undervalued, totally agree and those who can not see that only need to read 2 RNS's .... that took Altice from ZERO to Hero, holding now 18% of a FTSE 100 company ffs .... Don't think we have any other FTSE with a single holder holding >18%. Esp doing so in little over 6 months .... !!!

aimo & dyor

SM, morning

"Do we think our increase in BKR is already priced in or should there be a considerable uplift 01.01.22.."

Not a daft question as all ..... imo it's about 'conditioning', no, not the stuff you slap on your hair in the shower but how the market tricks you into believing something ... in this case our SP is currently worth 100% BKR.

Just need to do some basic calculations, eg using 31kboepd, NBP @ 140p/therm and Brent $70bbl as 2022 average, hedging, less Opex and est CapEx £50m, we should be adding virtually our current Mcap to CoH (ex Taxes) come year end ... in addition to current CoH ~£200m.

So in answer to your question, is YES and NO !!!

Yes we PI's have been conditioned to think BKR is priced in.

No, afaic and probably the likes of PE's and large II, then we still have plenty or headroom.

Will the market allow the SP to see fair value is another matter, guess there will be a lot of PI's that have pressed the sell button or about too. Each to their own, me still holding as I'm sure there is still at least one big surprise that awaits.

atb

aimo & dyor

Germany will freeze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in case of any “escalation” between Russia and Ukraine, the new German foreign minister said, citing an agreement between her country and the United States.

"In the event of further escalation this gas pipeline could not come into service," Annalena Baerbock told German media, as quoted by AFP.

The remarks follow a comment from Germany’s new Prime Minister, Olaf Scholtz that "It would be a serious mistake to believe that violating the borders of a European country would remain without consequences."

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will double the capacity of the existing Russia-Germany artery by 55 billion cubic meters of gas, is awaiting certification from the German authorities. The pipeline was completed earlier this year but Germany said it cannot give it the green light until several formal requirements were met.

The latest-flare up with Ukraine came after the U.S. claimed it had intelligence that Russia was planning an invasion into its neighbour, which spurred a series of warnings from Washington and Brussels to Moscow.

Meanwhile, the certification process for the infrastructure has been suspended by the German authorities because the pipeline must have an operator that is incorporated under German law. This means that the commissioning of the pipeline could be delayed until March next year. It could be delayed even further because after Germany approves it—if it does—the project will have to go to the European Commission, which would be tasked with making sure it complies with EU regulations.

According to government sources from European countries, it is because of this potential delay that Russia is not sending more natural gas to Europe, beyond what it is obliged to send under long-term contracts. The problem for Europe is this limited supply of gas could continue for months during the season of the highest demand.

Few more large late reported ...

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-13T17:59:05.000 GBX 241.079 45702 £110177.9246 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-12-13T17:47:53.293 GBX 244.031 9342 £22797.37602 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-12-13T17:35:41.293 GBX 241.416 41456 £100081.417 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO

Two large 130k (£305k) trades .... hummm

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-13T08:47:21.290 GBX 235 130000 £305500 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-13T08:47:50.643 GBX 235 130000 £305500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2021-12-13T16:35:00.837 GBX 244 76321 186223.24 UT AIMX P
2021-12-13T15:06:32.847 GBX 237.152 31549 74819.08448 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P AIMX
2021-12-13T17:06:24.183 GBX 243.166 30282 73635.52812 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P AIMX
2021-12-13T11:00:53.897 GBX 238 28192 67096.96 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2021-12-13T10:53:52.413 GBX 238.25 25000 59562.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Feels like last minute positioning has been happening over the past week ..... either for expected hike in SP due to commods (possibly going even more ballistic), a deal in the wings or sudden realisation the effect 100% BKR will have !

Decent buying / volume and the BoT's playing nicely atm too, lets see how she does from 14:30.

Due to the significant change in BKR PSA Net Cash Flow, I would have thought a Corporate Update will be odd's on for second week in Jan as we received one in 2020 when moving from 50% to 60% and possibly include Columbus news ( assuming full capacity in the Shearwater export system is sorted) and other goodies too including the eagerly awaited unaudited 31 December 2021 CoH.

aimo & dyor

"Taking voyeurism.." everyone needs a hobby !

Appears as if concerns about Putin and supplies are growing, NBP Jan 297.5p/therm +10.67% ..wowww !

LOL, Seen some sleeper accounts in my time, but this one must be a record .... +16 years for first posting.

Maybe, as it was such well considered and informative is why it took so long to compile and post.

And Brent of $44.16bbl Q4 ....

So NBP is running hot at ~+400% and Brent at ~+90% vs last year.

Or you could look at it another way, at today's prices, it's the same as if we were producing over 100,000boepd compared to this time last year in terms of revenue....if you follow my convoluted logic.

atb

Should of added, that is against Q4 2020 of 40.46p/therm average.

atb

Q4 2021 to-date NBP spot has averaged 206.93p/therm with Brent managing $81.37bbl.

Lovely Jubbly. :-)

Just using a very simplistic child's eye read-across from our 12 month period between June 2020 and June 2021 when our SP was pinned around ~120p/s to today's SP. If we add on 66.7%, our SP would be ~200p, that of course ignores our CoH growth, both R3 and Columbus coming online and the extraordinary explosion of commod's. So at 236p to me appears there is still plenty of running room in our SP, not withstanding my view we were woefully undervalued 12 months ago too.

aimo & dyor

Morning Campers,

Only 12 months ago, NBP Spot was ~45p/therm (SP ~101p) and at the time, thought we were quids-in, up from the ultra lows of May 2020, ~8p/therm (SP ~112p) .... roll on 12 months and I can still scarcely believe, we are sat at 270p/therm (SP 232p) for Jan.

In only 12 sessions we open the New Year with 100% BKR (+66.7%), which on current NBP/Brent/hedging would mean revenue of ~£100,000,000 per month to SQZ against a MCap of presently £624m with ~£200m CoH and ZERO debt.

So, does anyone think we are overvalued atm, I'm sure PE's don't .... answers on a postcard.

Sunny Sunday here .

aimo & dyor

Morning all,

TBH, I know I said a Special Dividend of 20p/s, but there is no reason at all given our enormous, ever accumulating cash pile that come results in April, SQZ recommend an increased dividend of ~20p/s vs a tiddly and imo, unjustifiably low award of 3.5p/s last year.

Yes, we all know that cash paid out as dividend usually is reflected in SP .... so, 20p (~£54m) drop in SP would not be unexpected. So are there any reasons why 20p/s or more is not an option. Yes, one very large one worth >£2.76m for ACW/MF in LTIP . Now here's the catch, in order to be granted these 'freebies' our SP must be higher than ~235p/s for a period of 6 months. So hence, why would ACW et al give up their chance of £millions£ risking our SP dropping below 235p just so we, the owners can have some of our cash back.

Now as for buyback, that should work in the opposite although always a gamble using CoH hoping to support the SP, but will of course improve mgt metrics for possible further freebie LTIP's. So probably odds on that will happen as it would virtually guarantee LTIP being hit and multi-million pound payout for the lucky two.

aimo & dyor

At current NBP / Brent, SQZ could pay SH's a special dividend of 20p/s which would be covered by revenue in the first 2 weeks of 2022.... Just saying .

aimo & dyor

Almsivi,

Thanks for that although I had already checked it and others, no luck as of yet, we need to go back as far as August / September if I recall.

atb

Just to clarify one point, https://www.stellarlimited.com/north-sea/ after selecting 'go to mandates' the SQZ mandate icon ( now removed) was shown to the right of the map linked to https://www.stellarlimited.com/serica-uk-north-sea/ which, as you can see is still reachable, so not sure if they have an issue with their site or indeed, SQZ search for a farm-in has ended ?

Either way, we still have the un-named rig mystery to solve.

aimo & dyor