Member Info for NewKOTB

Same MO as yesterday .... :-)

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-22T12:38:00.333 GBX 265.5 101425 269283.375 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-22T12:37:38.250 GBX 265.5 75062 199289.61 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-22T16:35:24.830 GBX 265.5 64821 172099.755 UT AIMX P
2021-12-22T12:51:29.750 GBX 265.5 57966 153899.73 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-22T12:49:30.787 GBX 265.5 50000 132750 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-22T12:29:22.737 GBX 263.815 32077 84623.93755 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-22T09:04:10.567 GBX 262 28169 73802.78 AT AIMX P ALGO
2021-12-22T12:54:43.153 GBX 265.5 25000 66375 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

https://youtu.be/vOwdfmF3sHk?t=166

Sasa,

See exactly where you are coming from, after all, drilling success, or keeping to budget for that matter, is not one of Serica's best fortes. N Eigg could become a black hole for cash for all the wrong reasons, even if successful would be at least another 2 years before we even sniff a return after £100's of millions more investment, that's assuming the UK Gov has not banned all NS drilling / development by then. Choice of drilling N Eigg, risking failure and the fall-out that will ensue or selling out now for ano to try would be my option, but that's just me. SQZ have been very much a minimal risk type of company for the past 4 years, makes me uneasy to think of going it alone. After all, excluding Eigg, SQZ have in effect Old Mother Hubbard cupboard of remaining SP drivers.

Muckle,

I agree that 320p maybe a little "underwhelming" on pure worth imo as it stands based on very conservative 2P and CoH alone but will still represent a profit for all invested .... job of our board to negotiate that figure closer to 400p/s and I see no reason for them not too.

atb... aimo & dyor

"A 100p/s dividend would cost ~£270m, more than doable.."

That said, imo there are numerous logical indicators that point towards sale of the company in near future than not atm. Just hope ACW et al have their logical heads on and not their Worzel Gummidge, so able to take advantage for the benefit of all holders ..... I'm sure 'communication' between ACW and our large institutional holders have taken place about where the company should go from here and what would be deemed acceptable if put to a vote.

btw, my quote "Just in case, I have a very short plank ready for Bruce !!!.." was not a Carry On euphemism.

aimo & dyor

Serica says 'significant returns' in store thanks to record gas prices .....

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19611149.serica-says-significant-returns-store-thanks-record-gas-prices/

Question is, what is the boards view of 'significant returns'.... is that based on cash returned via dividend, or as I would hope, sale of the company @ >320p/s.

aimo & dyor

Is 100p/s Special Dividend an option.

Well, imo most certainly. Given our astounding cash build come July at time of payment SQZ could easily be sitting on ~£700m cash .... A 100p/s dividend would cost ~£270m, more than doable esp if SQZ lock in decent hedging now there would be no excuse not too. You could even argue the case for significantly higher still.

PS There would mutiny if declare dividend was 3.5p ...

PPS Just in case, I have a very short plank ready for Bruce !!!

aimo & dyor & show us the cash !

Just thought I would look at our revenue based on more realistic figures given our 100% BKR and ~31kboepd.

Using the 15 year average for NBP Spot ~52p/therm and best guess Brent ~$60barrel we still arrive at very healthy figures. Annual revenue pre Opex/tax and current hedging as a guide we would be looking at ~£350m pa. OMG I hear you shout, that's atrocious ..... is it really though !

Well, not really, normal life before the gas bubble, y/e 2019 we booked £250m, for not so normal y/e 2020 £125m revenue ... so as you can appreciate moving to ~£350m is a sizable jump in itself .... the issue will be when the analysts start putting pen to paper comparing this year against forthcoming. You can see the headlines now ....

The problem is our board would most likely still be happy sitting on their piles (of cash) taking +£500k salary and numerous LTIP's etc rather than taking the opportunity to sell at a premium now. Remember, our revenue and net worth is based on our reserves and CoP ... ever dwindling, day by day.

PS I said 'their' piles of cash but you all know, like the company, its really ours, the shareholders.

atb & aimo ... dyor

Opss, sorry, still waking up ...... plus yet to put on my glasses ....

Moral being .... Read Twice (with glasses on) Post Once ... atb

Maverick,

Morning, you could ask the question of our other broker, Jefferies that act as Joint Brokers too.

atb

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-21T14:37:25.670 GBX 260.5 100000 260500 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T16:35:20.207 GBX 266.5 79556 212016.74 UT AIMX P
2021-12-21T10:30:27.013 GBX 255 43805 111702.75 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T12:22:19.167 GBX 258 42432 109474.56 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T16:08:21.747 GBX 264 36757 97038.48 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T14:20:16.007 GBX 260 35000 91000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T12:22:41.640 GBX 258.24 32077 82835.6448 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-21T11:02:15.387 GBX 257.629 31049 79991.22821 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-21T14:19:57.313 GBX 260 27500 71500 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-21T17:59:04.000 GBX 264.125 25579 67560.53375 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-12-21T11:56:17.153 GBX 258 25000 64500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2021-12-21T10:30:09.623 GBX 255 25000 63750 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Large delayed / late reported trades once again today, dark pools active in facilitating just over half of these imo.

Who are the institutional investors that see value in acquiring these and where from, more importantly, why ?

PS SQZ moved up to 29th place today on FTSE AIM UK 50 Index

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-aim-uk-50-index/constituents/table?page=2

aimo & dyor

I mention in an earlier post about SQZ's current basic worth based on reserves and CoH, being ~320p/s.

Should an offer come in, then atm that is a 60% premium to our VWMA(100 day) of 207.7p and approx ~ +20% to our closing SP. Question is, would our board entertain such an offer, well imo they should seriously think about backing such an approach. Gas bubble will burst and price will tumble at some point and deals take time to complete, without hedging to the upside in place our SP will certainly suffer. For me at this point, I would see it as a bird in the hand scenario and take it.

Interesting to see our major holders remain unchanged.

PS We could organise a little 320p/s soiree or better still a full on 400p/s Party, or if we are feeling lucky, a never to be repeated 500p/s Weekend Binge Fest.

All very much imo & dyor

Lots of significant sized delayed trades being reported today ......

NBP's need to cool off ..... they really do for the good of all !

At these NBP/Brent, AVERAGE production, hedging etc, come 11 days time SQZ revenue will be, wait for it :

£150,000,000 net PER MONTH before tax and Opex.... or £0.15bn per month

SQZ have ZERO debt and a MCap of x4.6 our monthly 2022 revenue with well in excess of >£200 CoH atm too.

NBP 430P/THERM (+15.6%) .. TRIPLE GULP !!!

aimo & dyor

Double GULP !!!!

426.240P/Therm (+14.6%)

Maybe I should of called 500p/therm by Friday !!

Our gov should be really, really concerned about energy security and pay less attention to the Greta et al's. Yes we need to transition but cancelling NS Licensing rounds, putting stop to development and adding more difficult ESG targets etc will only drive investment down, allowing less regulated countries produce more and more dirty energy, that will cost even more both in terms of emissions and £ for the UK to import than produce ourselves. The past 6 months or so should be a wake-up call .

https://www.decomnorthsea.com/news/2021/september/stark-figures-show-north-sea-production-could-be-on-course-to-wrap-up-by-2030/

PS Only 419p/them now ...... gulp !

aimo

Wonder how many traders offering ever increasing both NBP / TTF futures emulate from Russia ? Just saying !

Also ....

"Russia's Yamal-Europe gas pipeline starts shipping gas in reverse mode from Germany to Poland.:Reuters.."

If twitter can be believed, futures can only go higher : https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1473193413390778369

aimo

flexmw,

Yes, totally unbelievable ...400p/therm. That's +20% rise in a few sessions, yet our SP is stuck fast at circa ~250p since last Tuesday. Only last Monday, NBP Jan 297.5p/therm, so that is +33% in little over a week and our SP is being held tight. Lots of dark pool trades been happening recently too having been watching late / delayed reported imo

Our SP needs to respond, but will it be allow too !!!

aimo & dyor

TS,

"While this in ultimately good for our investment in SQZ it is tinged with sadness for me..."

Totally agree, just hope that fuel poverty does not lead to deaths as a direct result, although I fear it will. Even myself, I have taken to reducing usage after my supplier went bust and moved to a much more expensive tariff.
There is probably, I would say, no more than ~10% ( be good to get actual figures) of the futures that are actually physically delivered, the rest are covered in cash. So you could say that NBP and hence spot are nothing more than a manipulated and false market, not unlike last year when traders were gambling on WTI and eventually went negative. Good thing is I don't think UK Nat Gas can be shorted, well at least not at the moment anyhow ! .....

aimo & dyor

Well, here's a story to tell your grandchildren ..... Jan 2022 NBP's

UK Natural Gas Futures
CONTRACT LAST TIME(GMT) % CHANGE VOLUME
JAN22 400.000 12/21/2021 9:25 AM 7.576 275

Topped 400p/therm ....... bl**dy ell !!

We now have Jan's .... 394p/therm

CONTRACT LAST TIME(GMT) % CHANGE VOLUME
JAN22 394.100 12/21/2021
8:48 AM 5.989 40