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Looking like the NBP futures market has tightened. Only deals done for March / April this morning so far, could we be seeing a topping-out. Normally month ahead deals are taken first thing in the morning.

MAR22 354.500 12/21/2021
8:26 AM 5.096 30
APR22 252.500 12/21/2021
8:27 AM 3.730 5

aimo & dyor

Wowww, sizable trades with majority late reported :

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-12-20T15:09:49.667 GBX 247 150000 £370500 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-20T15:09:14.803 GBX 247 148908 £367802.76 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-20T09:55:37.460 GBX 247.5 125000 £309375 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2021-12-20T09:55:26.177 GBX 247.5 120000 £297000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-20T15:03:20.963 GBX 247 106795 £263783.65 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-20T16:35:20.693 GBX 250 101467 £253667.5 UT AIMX P
2021-12-20T15:04:47.947 GBX 247 100000 £247000 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-20T16:21:18.363 GBX 250 100000 £250000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-20T09:19:55.403 GBX 250 62001 £155002.5 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2021-12-20T09:20:18.123 GBX 250 62001 £155002.5 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2021-12-20T16:01:00.280 GBX 250.27 50000 £125135 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2021-12-17T17:35:16.000 GBX 253.5 48995 £124202.325 UT AIMX N

PS FWIW, today's rise in NBP Futures from Fridays close, based on 21kboe of unhedged gas production alone is worth an additional ~£400,000 per day. NBP Jan closed at 373.50p/therm (+8.3%)

aimo & dyor

With Q1 2022 future sat at 360p, what reason would ACW et al for NOT at least locking hedges in Q1 at >240p

TS,

Agree, if ACW et al have no irons in the fire ( as appears to be the case) that are looking likely to result in an accretive deal in the very near future, then the only deal on the table should be to sell SQZ, now !!

aimo & dyor

lol ... 'Spot' the mistake !!

2021 average NBP Sport prices :(p/therm)

Q4 ToDate 214.45p/therm
Q3 118.81p/therm
Q2 64.79p/therm
Q1 49.82p/therm
Q4 2020 40.46p/therm

Morning Flexmw,

You are right, what news leak !

For me could be AA talking the talk, should he want to support their SP for a reason, be it a placing, a merger or as leverage for negotiating another deal. FWIW, up against Viaro (new owners of RRE) and Ineos both PE backed that may want to increase their 20% holdings, AA will have to work his magic once more if he want 20% of a field that produces ~12500boepd (anyone got latest data on production) for hefty £220m. That said, one thing is for sure, AA would not be 'highlighting his interest' for no reason, that's what PI's love about him, deal maker extraordinaire. Total have stated, Plateau capacity in the region of 90,000boepd !!

https://www.offshore-technology.com/uncategorised/laggan-tormore-conventional-gas-field-uk/

One thing this does show, deals are still there to be made.

PS Remember, only 20 months ago when gas was ~40p/therm and ACW et al kept saying they would not over pay for a deal, oh the beauty of hindsight, not when it comes to AA doing deals !

aimo & dyor

See Rent-o-kil are one of only 3 FTSE 100 stocks in blue today .... guess they have just been awarded a new contract to get rid of the rats in No10 .... lol

As for NBP futures, 368p/therm (+6.7%) , bit of a runaway train with Casey (the Putin) Jones on the platform atm.

aimo & dyor

"No excess deaths in South Africa, and already burning itself out. Its a cold...."

Also it's summertime ..... massive factor that few have taken note of imo

"is this an avenue that BT could take?..

I did think that myself, but so long as its gov backed, there is absolutely no need with BT structured as it is, however we all know the sum of the parts is far greater. So to unlock this value, imo the weight around BT's neck has always been the pension, release that and maybe value will start to out here. aimo

Yep, Putin has the EU by the crown jewels ..... he will probably make a move over Xmas / New Year into Ukraine whilst the rest of Europe begs for gas supplies. What can EU really do, put tariffs on Russian exports .... lol, not when their main export to the tune of ~50% is Oil and Gas, he would probably just sell it the China anyhow ..... Putin, ex KGB knows how to turn the screws, inflict pain, slowly but surely until the EU piggies squeal.

NBP to top an incredible 400p/therm this week imo and if that doesn't send us up too, I give up.

atb & aimo

In America he would have died ..... as eggs are eggs, he wouldn't of had health insurance either. Problem here is the NHS is here for everyone, regardless ... maybe that's the problem. No Covid pass, no treatment !! Watch the rush for a jab then .... aimo

"Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. has begun a process to sell its oil and gas assets in the Netherlands and the UK, according to documents seen by Bloomberg....."

"Prospective buyers will be invited to virtual data rooms, with bids for both sets of assets due in December..."

"The company, also known as Taqa, wants to divest itself of at least 17 fields plus stakes in the Sullom Voe shipping terminal, and the Brent and SAGE pipelines in the U.K. In a separate sales process, it is offering 32 Dutch oil and gas licenses, of which five are directly operated by the company.."

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/2/abu-dhabi-s-taqa-looks-to-sell-uk-dutch-oil-and-gas-assets

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/abu-dhabi-s-taqa-looks-to-sell-u-k-dutch-oil-and-gas-assets

You never know ... !

aimo & dyor

Mommur,

"Nice see see two Investment Trusts with a small holdings of around 1.8 million & 2.2 million shares in Serica.."

Yep, as our SH register shows "Janus Henderson Investors 10,938,020 4.07%.." so they have many millions more SQZ's shares squirreled away too I guess !

Not only that, HOT's top stock is Serica with 3.36% of fund by weight and in great FTSE company with LWI.

LWI :
"Within smaller and medium sized companies, the largest new positions added were Jupiter Fund Management, Reach (a newspaper publisher, formerly Trinity Mirror), Serica Energy (a North Sea oil & gas producer) and Finsbury Food (a producer of speciality breads and cakes). All of these companies are well managed, cash generative businesses but trade at a valuation discount to the broader UK market because of a ‘question mark’ around their capacity for future sales and earnings growth. In our view this valuation discount more than reflects the issues and we can see a realistic likelihood of future earnings growth. For example, ..... Serica Energy could acquire additional North Sea assets funded from its strong balance sheet (and is a beneficiary of rising UK gas prices)..... "

https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.dataretrieval/Documents.aspx/?type=sl.ra.full&id=17cc4ee0-a02b-40e0-aba3-b778d6d68e99&user=srsEN4qW1zQjrlt5yr5592E2tbqK61LIqLx1g9D4ct7MjyUzHjv%2fPlrCu%2bror5je&r=1

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/henderson-opportunities-trust-plc/

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/lowland-investment-company-plc/

atb

Well, we do have a gap at 206p ..... although first gap to be filled is now 130p then 140p, then 154p etc etc, so plenty of them to gravitate towards. :-)

atb

Just thought I would look again at our 'worth'.

Given where we have come from over the past 6 months, one would be forgiven to think we have no more mileage left in the tank, remember our rise has been on the back of super inflated commods, significant cash build and R3 / Columbus coming online .... justifiable to say the least.... or is there another hidden driver too !

So, as a target for cash loving, PE outfit demanding instant revenue, what's our very minimum present worth ... simple calculations based purely on NS reserves (~55m) at conservative £12boe ($16) and CoH (~£200m) we arrive at £880m (~320p/s). This ignores SQZ's enormous cash build which come 2022 will, at present, adds ~£100m (~37p/s) per month to our worth, by results in April could be an additional ~150p/s. N Eigg has little to no value at present, however should SQZ be successful that would change significantly but that's another story afaic.

If I wanted SQZ, offer would formally arrive 1/1/22 with RNS on first trading day of 2022, 3/1/22. It makes zero sense to wait any longer, as longer the wait, more PE's have to loose and greater the price paid. Been numerous interesting large trades of late with no change to II holding reported as yet, clearly someone sees value here.

So ACW et al, balls in your court.

aimo & dyor

QC,

Difficult one to call, guess it all depends how much Boris wants to play politics trying to appease general public when they demand blood come massive rise in energy bills from April. Watching NBP over the past few months and futures well into 2022, energy costs will be a massive hot-potato for Gov with not only Joe Public after him but, I guess vast majority business owners too.

In the meantime NBP closed 5pm last night 349.87p/therm, presently sat at 346.66p/therm.

aimo

Dickupham,

Wonder how much of our investment in both R3 and Columbus would be eligible for the new super-deduction that will cut SQZ's tax bill by 25p for every pound they invest in new equipment, runs for two years from April 2021 so would also include N Eigg too I would imagine along with planned work-overs.

As mentioned before, murky waters afaic !!

Hopefully SQZ's future tax commitments, will shortly, no longer be our concern.

atb

Hate to say it, at these NBP's, guess a windfall tax is nailed on once Omicron has passed and Boris wants to win votes back.

Sorry .....

ell's bell's .... 351p/therm $268boe.