Member Info for NewKOTB

hummmm !!!

Gap soon to Close !!!!

Then will hope to see VOD start to recover lost ground .... the results should prevail imo.

atb

FYI,

"The UK's Takeover Panel has published the final text changes to the Takeover Code (the Code) and confirmed that they will take effect on 5 July 2021. The changes relate to the offer timetable and conditions to offers, and are the most significant in recent years..."

https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2021/april/22/significant-changes-to-the-uk-takeover-code-confirmed

That's gross, not net ... may need to revisit your math.... atb

Then, as if Putin is not rubbing enough countries up the wrong way .... he go's n blasts a satellite up ...

Russian anti-satellite missile test, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59299101

As for Putin's forces assembling, watch him invade Ukraine and enlarge the annexed Crimea into Russian control... then watch the EU stand-aside as we value our gas supply, NS1 / NS2 over that of Putin's aggression.

NS2 will be well into 2022 before it's ever online, be lucky to complete before next winter as things go.

aimo & dyor

muckle,

"BTW what's the significance on the 1st week in December?..."

We know that BP has, in effect, the casting vote over any t/o prior to 31/12/21, after which SQZ are 'freed' from such constraints within the BKR agreement. Any approach prior to ending of BKR agreement must be met with the blessing of BP. Needless to say any deal from 1/1/22 would be made much simpler too in terms of not requiring any 'current BKR agreement legalities' follow through.

PUSU (Put up or Shut up), the Takeover Code states, should a leak occur (lbh, more probable than not with SQZ atm) then the bidder must make a formal offer within 28 day or keep their hands off for at least another 6 months. So in effect, any 'leak' co-ordinated or otherwise, in or around 1st full week of December would allow any bidder to take the earliest opportunity to bid for SQZ after our BKR agreement officially ends.

Of all the times I want SQZ to 'leak', it would be for this reason .... the outcome of such an event would qualify SQZ SP a free seat on the next Jeff Bezos flight. Forcing the hand or the acquirer to PUSU and with luck bring others into play too. If nothing else would see SQZ SP attain more or less fair value.

Maybe no more than a fancifully thought but remains a possibility as our recent few weeks of SP action is questionable.

PS JPM recent addition to our SH listing (3.22%) may prove timely or 'informed', we shall see !!

aimo & dyor.

Still trying to understand the persistent fall since the leaked Columbus delay ... a delay which, btw is still scheduled for Q4 2021 as before, just pushed back a few weeks !!! Still also unable to find any reference to Shearwater's capacity issue which was quoted as being the reason for Columbus delay ..... !!!

Drop of ~25% (~60pts) off recent 26/10/21 high.... Once again today, PM session, when US opens is usually accompanied by more downward pressure.

Having toyed with oversold for several sessions now, today's daily close is now firmly in oversold territory, yet NBP remains very strong >200p/therm (Dec) and Brent >$80 barrel.

COP now over, with very little in the way of attributable damage toward O&G industry for the foreseeable.

Winter around the corner with demand set to rocket once more and NS2 not looking likely to be on-stream until Spring either, plus Putin has his eye, once again, on more land-grab which may upset the apple-cart to say the least !

Come on you PE's (ie Waldorf, Viaro, Tailwind, Chrysaor, Delek, HitecVision, Carlyle Group, etc ) about time you shown your hand, or are you waiting for first week of December !

aimo & dyor

Visitor,

"SQZ appears obscenely undervalued...."

Well, don't think you will get any argument from me or other regular posters here !

In the main, your figures are close enough to highlight SQZ incredible potential and indeed current ability to generate FCF.

The only thing I would add is CapEx is a great unknown variable at for 2022, SQZ have not put any figures on N Eigg nor btw COS for the well. N Eigg is however the only significant CapEx planned for 2022. We are also currently open to farm-in for up to 45% of our Eigg licences which would alter our CapEx to the benefit of FCF. I've penciled in £50m for 20222.

https://www.stellarlimited.com/serica-uk-north-sea/

Also, our hedging is around 20-25% of gas depending upon production, which given NBP atm, is a bit of a drag on FCF.

I've used ~£10boe for 2022 OpEx, (£11.97boe for 1H 2021 / £10.53boe 2020 / £9.40boe 2019)

Remember, SQZ has ZERO debt, very limited decom liabilities and are dividend paying too with Columbus 3,500boepd net coming online this Q4.

Finally, come end of 2021, I would have thought our CoH to be >£180m.

PS As for AXA selling down, that's not unusual as they have often been fluid in their holding over the years, selling then adding again !

Been mentioned before, but PE's are the one's to watch with SQZ, just hope ACW et al have several of them around the table atm

aimo & dyor & atb

Although saying that QC, threshold on this RNS was on 09/11/2021 .... so guess it was AXA yesterday too as you say.

Spot on QC ...... AXA Investment Managers now down to 9.86% ....

Allalogie, could well be the case, forgot that one .. think JPM world HQ is NY based, thanks

Maverick,

"If JPM are a new holding entrant as per NewKTOB post yesterday with above 3%, why haven’t we seen a TR1 RNS?......"

Could it be our company is always behind the curve when it comes to informing us SH !!! ... lol

Or could simple be a mistake on SQZ part for not including JPM in their listings before ... lol, lol

Or our board / brokers should be on the ball as this appears to be yet another example of taking their eye off ! lol,lol,lol

Or JPM are being JPM, as I understand there can be up to 3 days between crossing notification threshold and issuing and RNS .... hummm !!

Guess the question is, why like you say Maverick, right now JPM appears on our website under latest shareholders with >3% ...... interesting !!!

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

PS I can confirm JPM were NOT listed on SQZ's previous notification.

PPS Hargreaves also moved between thresholds 4.76% to 5.06% too

aimo & dyor

There had better not be another leak for which you failed to RNS in a prompt & timely manner.

aimo

"millions more nil-cost options btw lay in wait to be issued..."

Of course a subscription tender offer for SBB at this point in time as I suggested below using debt would, amongst others, almost guarantee the boards recent LTIP award nil-cost options of 2,725,032 shares be awarded should the SP >234p for 6 months or more. Nice easy way for our board to make themselves millions of free cash. So a SBB could well be on the cards, who knows ?

Using debt is also efficient in terms of interest against tax and makes a hostile, or otherwise, t/o more expensive too.

PS Board must be really annoyed the SP didn't make the 234p of 6 months or more ... lol

aimo & dyor

Qwerty,

RRE done a SBB by way of open tender offer at +20% to 60 day VWAP .... @ 560p and was fully subscribed, RRE was sold 2 years later at 1850p.

Would be nice for SQZ to take on debt of ~£250m then buyback and cancel ~100m shares via tender offer of at least +20% to our current 50 day VWAP of 210p making it 252p, that I would agree with ... open market buying, no way !

With our revenue during 2022, the debt could be paid back within 12 months imo

Would a SBB be on open market or by way of subscription tender offer is the question I guess, two different animals with very different results..... as I said earlier, using debt for SBB is another ballgame altogether and could well be the only way forward for SP growth without acquisition or t/o offer given growing headwinds.

aimo & dyor

Once again, large delayed trades, apparently looking like buys given timestamp imo.

10-Nov-21 08:56:56 197.50 100,000 Buy* 193.80 194.40 197.50k O
10-Nov-21 08:56:34 197.50 75,000 Buy* 193.80 194.40 148.13k O

aimo

Oh, forgot to add, by artificially supporting the SP with SBB this will facilitate and financially benefit institutional holders that want to exit due to the 'Greta Pressure' factor not LTH's.

aimo & dyor

Mommur,

"Thoughts on share buyback ??..."

You're having a laugh are you not, is it April already .... buyback, absolutely NO, NO,NO .... imo

Never really seen evidence that SBB's have any long lasting +ve effect on a SP, particularly one on AIM.

How much of 'our' cash are we willing to let the board 'waste' on SBB, £5m, £10m ...£50m, slippery slope imo.

For me SBB is total and utter admittance of failure of our board to make our cash work .... which, tbf looks to be proven right as we have done nothing in terms of acquisitions since BKR and what we have done (BKR / Columbus / Rowallan) has always gone well over budget or ended in failure. SBB are an easy and lazy way to 'show' SH our board is actively managing our interest .... lol.

Since 2016 we have issues ~5,000,000 free shares as part of LTIP / ESIP , so buying those back would cost ~£10m, much more than our recent dividend payments to us SH ( millions more nil-cost options btw lay in wait to be issued ) .... I would much prefer the £10m be issued as dividend than wasted on SBB. Better still stop all LTIP / ESIP and have our board dip into their own pockets to buy shares rather than get freebies. I'm sure an RNS stating ACW et al buying a decent amount would do more for the long-term support of SP and having their own skin in the game.

The only way a SBB would gain my vote was if our company was materially undervalued and the shares were put into treasury to facilitate an acquisition. Clearly, the SP would need to rise significantly above purchase price for their to be any gain. If anything, time for SBB was last year when we were sitting at 120p/s with £100m cash in the bank, not now just as the SP has come off an all time high.

Also, SBB are an artificial way to manipulate EPS .... so appearing to make the company more valuable to SH and investors.

Of course, all this assumes we use our own cash and not debt for the SBB, which is another ballgame altogether.

RETURN CASH TO SHAREHOLDERS .... NOT SHARE BUYBACKS

aimo & dyor

"Is the tanker about to turn ! Both RSI and Momentum turning up slightly atm ... :-) See how she closes out the day...."

That didn't last long .... continued downtrend with the AXA RNS taking the wind out of our blue sails .... :-(

D220,

"I would think the company must be getting interest from private equity on a daily basis. There are plenty who are cashed up that don't mind fossil fuels when there is money to be made..."

Really hope that ACW et al are getting the message, headwinds ... headwinds ... headwinds !!!

Get a deal away with a PE outfit for ~350p/s

PS At least BP will not be selling their holding down due to 'Greta Pressure', I hope !!

aimo & dyor