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Dickupham,

First of all, great post ....

Right, where do I start, please don't take this the wrong way Mitch / ACW, but as a LTH feel as if we are on a perpetual merry-go-round that is slowing but steadily grinding to a halt, one that is being run for the benefit of the showmen. Regardless of the BKR uplift and Columbus after that what !!! OK, N Eigg scheduled for 2022, but tbh I have not got much faith in that drill or any other for that matter, btw, please let us know, what is the COS for the drill as I have not seen it anywhere! Since BKR (which will probably never be repeated by anyone, let alone us) SQZ have done very little. Failed Rowallan, failed R3 afaic in terms of both cost / project overrun and poor flow-rates, failed to get any deal away. We have Columbus, discovered in 2006, so only 15 years to get online & counting, yes I understand reason for that. SQZ, by default, our BoD, are living off the royalties of BKR

I see SQZ as a 'steady-eddy', happy to plod along, someone to go down the pub with, have a round of golf, a reliable friend but not one you would want to go into business with. However, here we are in the business of O&G together, yet as the marco headwinds grow ever stronger SQZ appear directionless and I fear the apparent lack of decisiveness in driving the business forward will weigh ever greater on our SP with only LTIP seeing growth ! Time after time we are told we "will not overpay", for an acquisition, yet numerous deals have been done as we've sat by. Clearly our criteria is somewhat different to others in the market, just hope we are not perusing the impossible BKR dream once more.

Said it before, will say it again, make our cash work or distribute it rather than it being used as a comfort blanket for the board, better still, get a deal away to sell SQZ.

All, very much so, IMO.

SQZ took their eye off the ball afaic as we were supposedly "working closely with the Shearwater Operator" esp if Shell knew two days ago that Columbus will be delayed and this was leaked. Old Flegg needs to get a grip, SQZ should have been fully aware of Shearwaters ability, or lack of, to handle Columbus, as such, notified the market earlier and head-off this apparent leak.

Either way, guess the startup will be the same ..... SQZ shareholders will be the last to know.

Interested as to when our partners Waldorf & Tailwind were informed as this too could have given cause for concern, both of whom are PE backed btw and probably on the lookout for acquisitions !

PS RNS should have been issued yesterday afaic as I'm sure that SQZ would have been informed or known about an issue prior to 16:30 imo

PPS Why no mention of our extraordinary revenue and cash build occurring atm and indeed our current CoH position. If Flegg came out and said we added >£80m over the last 3 months, now hold in excess of £180m CoH (third of our Current MCap btw) SP would have bounced for sure.

All about keeping the owners, us, better informed and knowing how to 'showcase' a company imo

aimo & dyor

Sure has been .... at least we know probably why !

Took the opportunity to re-evaluate my portfolio mix adding to my position in BT instead of SQZ, however still have orders for more SQZ from 180 - 199 waiting should the opportunity appear, which given delay to Columbus ( that was to be a bigger SP driver than R3 in terms of effective net production afaic ) and other external drivers has now increased imo.

aimo & dyor

Thanks for the link ....

What that's basically saying, or should I say Putin is ..... allow me NS2 on my terms, get the legislation passed and I will fill the pipe getting you out of the mess I've help force you into .... nothing like a bit of friendly help when you need it and Putin is as far from friendly as you can get imo.

Couldn't see how SQZ wouldn't have known the instant a decision was made, unless SQZ are not working as close as they think...... "I would once again like to acknowledge the skill, hard-work and dedication of our operational team who are working closely with the Shearwater Operator to ensure that production begins at the earliest opportunity..."

PS Spot on Sasa, good call.

aimo & dyor

"This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of EU Regulation.."

Don't need to tell us that, as it appears your "inside information" leaked out well before this RNS.

Poor show SQZ.

aimo

See they are offering :

Summer 2023 @ 73p/therm &
Summer 2026 @ 54p/therm atm

Be more than happy with those given Jan – May 2021 averaged ~54p/therm and 2020 average market gas price was ~ 25p/therm. Serica need only NBP gas price of ~16p/therm and $45/barrel Brent to cover Opex. Currently NBP 189p/therm and Brent $83/barrel.

PS Volume ~2.4m today with number of trades ~1364 highest for sometime .... AT's making up ~72%

SQZ got hit substantially more than any of these today :
SQZ -7.47%
IOG -1.71%
KIST -5.26%
DEC -0.34%
PMG -2.85%
I3E -4.63%
RDSB -3.6%
BP -1.55%
JSE -1.61%

"Apparently around 80p p/therm is the sweet spot and target.... "

Guess you are able to provide a link to that !

"A shorting attack is quite often the prelude to a bid...."

It does have that feel about it tbh, looking at similar NS plays, with the exception of KIST, (who are down much less than us btw) SQZ do appear to have been singled out over the past two sessions, then again, we had a good run up too. No matter which way you cut is, imo SQZ are still substantially below fair value even if NBP gas was 90p/therm, currently sat @ 191p/therm.

aimo

Link please ...

Roll on 1/1/2022 when our bird in the hand can be set free to land on whichever bush pays the most.

Using SQZ own production estimate average of 30,350boepd net and associated hedging for 2022 based on a very conservative 2022 average 90p/therm and $80/barrel the figures look excellent with est revenue @ ~£530m vs current Mcap of £570m.

Remember, for a company that is producing, we have NO DEBT, which is very unusual for a pure up-stream play, plus very limited decom liabilities, not to mention current CoH which has to be circa £180m atm. So around a third of our Mcap is currently held in CoH.

aimo & dyor

"Shops, restaurants and schools have shut in Moscow in a partial lockdown, as Russia battles record Covid deaths and infections." So Putin now wants to keep EU onside by 'offering' to pump more gas .... lol, think Putins coffers are in need of a top-up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59076152

See gas futures are looking good for summer 2022 atm >110p/therm, that's around $86boe. Probably settle around 90p/therm or $72boe ... plenty of cash will be generated even at 90p/therm to warrant SQZ SP well above current 210p/s

aimo & dyor

Got to be honest, today's fall is brutal, combined with yesterdays it's doubly brutal.

From ~240p to ~205p in 24 hours ...

aimo.

Boy oh boy ... grabbed more at ~206

QC,

It was due to the fact your post was using the same thread that MrsP initiated.

All 'its' posts and reply's too were removed as one.

atb

....and posts removed from all BB ..... WELL DONE ADMIN.

Appears MrsP now Banned .... in little over 24 hours of posting ... lol

Appears MrsP now Banned .... in little over 24 hours of posting ... lol

We all know the real worth of SQZ unlike the market, as it's demonstrating all too well atm.

Could the end of our BKR agreement ( as has been muted ) be the catalyst for an approach should we remain so undervalued imo. PE's will be watching for sure .... could an approach come as early as first week of December, thus allowing for the takeover code rules of 30 days to expire after offer before any deal is officially concluded that frees us from our BKR agreement, I wonder ! Could be earlier if BP et al give their blessing.

aimo & dyor

NB added a few more today @ ~211/209/207 more to follow if allowed.