Member Info for NewKOTB

Looks like we have several holders changing their level of investment & new entry too.

Old notification in brackets ()

Shareholder Register Analysis No. of Shares % issued share capital
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,602,036 10.64% (10.50%) - ADDED
AXA Framlington Investment Managers** 27,076,409 10.07% (12.11%) DECREASED
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 20,933,238 7.79% (7.03%) ADDED
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 13,603,563 5.06% (4.76%) ADDED
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.02% (unchanged)
BlackRock 11,423,988 4.25% (4.27%) DECREASED
Janus Henderson Investors 10,938,020 4.07% (4.23%) DECREASED
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.89% (unchanged)
Interactive Investor 10,388,619 3.86% (3.78%) ADDED
JPMorgan Asset Management 8,661,851 3.22% (NEW ENTRY)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,874,580 2.93% (unchanged)

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 31 October 2021 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 14 October 2021, the Company had 268,868,031 (increased from 268,858,079) ordinary shares in issue of which 23.97% is not held in public hands.

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

PS The Hardy's are now SQZ largest holder and I would have thought have a close 'relationship' with ACW, so really reassuring to see their holding increase by ~380k.

aimo

Muckle,

"I wonder if those 5- £99.99k sells are actually buys"

Buys imo .... Is the tanker about to turn ! Both RSI and Momentum turning up slightly atm ... :-)

See how she closes out the day as we've been on a downhill ski black-run since 239p of 11 sessions ago !

atb

"Will not be long before we have numerous buy upgrades too once one or two major player break rank !.."

Deutsche Bank would be the confirmation one to watch do a 'U' turn, not unlike Boris, but by then our SP will be trending well up anyhow imo.

PS Don't put too much emphasis on these brokers as they always talk their own book unless information is as clear as day and in the public domain.

aimo

What's interesting is this latest upgrade following on from last Fridays 175p buy reiteration, so whats changed, other than all their clients orders now completed I take it !! :

05-Nov-21 Berenberg Bank Buy - 175.00 Reiteration

Will not be long before we have numerous buy upgrades too once one or two major player break rank !

So we have recent JPM @ 255P , Barclays @ 260p reiterations, my guess is Berenberg will issue another buy upgrade soon too.

aimo

Allalogie,

As I mentioned last week, that's is exactly what I feared would begin to happen ... "One that concerns me more is the yet to be seen pressure applied to pension funds and investment houses to withdraw from O&G into 'green'. Given we have a significant % issued share capital held by the likes of AXA / Canaccord / Blackrock / Janus etc could be the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of SP growth, goodness knows how many hold below 3% !!.."

Well done Mommur, 12 day momentum is at it's lowest point for many a year (Aug 2010) and we are about to move into oversold once again first time since last September. We are being slowly but surely deliberately driven down imo.

Still have more orders ready btw .

aimo & dyor

Megla,

Just had another quick look .... appears you are correct, I mistakenly used top end production without taking into account Opex etc either ... ?:-( so thanks for pointing that out. I dislike posting inaccurate information as it helps no one and I very seldom look back and review my calculation as the variables are constantly changing. Looking more like ~£373m CoH come results, still not too shabby, but certainly not our MCap £531m ..... thanks again.... not sure how that happened tbh but the 3 empty bottles of vin rouge might give a clue, plus fat finger syndrome!!

atb & aimo

flexmw,

As you say, good to hear others too take the same view. (I’m not a subscriber either)

"Might a consolidator or private equity buyer be interested in buying a stream of cash flow on the cheap?”..."

For me that is the way this will go, no brainer for a North Sea PE backed outfit, ie Waldorf, Viaro, Tailwind, Chrysaor, Delek, HitecVision, Carlyle Group, etc (plenty out there) they love instant cash ! Just need our board to get the deal away before it's too late and not let personal greed cloud what would be a fabulous conclusion to the SQZ story.

aimo & dyor & atb

See Waldorf concluded their $455m deal this week for ~20,000boe and "Waldorf will pay additional, uncapped contingent consideration when Brent exceeds US$52/bbl on average in any of the five years 2021 to 2025...... "

"Assuming production is in line with Cairn forecasts, this contingent consideration is expected to generate approximately a further US$100 million at US$60/bbl Brent prices, US$175 million at US$70/bbl Brent prices, and US$240 million at US$80/bbl Brent prices," Cairn said.

https://www.oedigital.com/news/491793-cairn-sells-north-sea-field-interests-to-waldorf

So very simple read across for our 30,000boepd would be ~$682m (£505m) with reserves being slightly greater 61mmboe (31/12/20) use 10mmboe @ $15boe $150m (£110), plus our CoH ~£180m would be approx £795m, or around 297p/s

The discount variable which is difficult to quantify is the tie-in for 4 years production when Brent exceeds US$52/bbl.

So going back to my previous post, our board should be looking towards 350p/s imo

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Sure ....

My previous post was alluding to that. "Given our SP of 199p, by the time of our annual results, sometime in April 2022, there is a good chance our CoH will exceed our MCap .... currently ~£535m. Takeover is nailed on at this ridiculous SP..." if not well before.

Using SQZ's production average guidance 30350boepd from 1/1/22 up until results mid April ( appox 115 days into 2022 ) and Brent ~$81 with NBP ~140p/therm, hedging too, we should be looking at ~£230m revenue, plus our CoH come 31/12/21 and we will be at or around our current Mcap of $535m @ 199p/s come result. Don't forget we have no major CapEx planned for Q1 just std OpEx afaik. Doubt we will drill N Eigg in Q1, with 10m swells, but then again this is SQZ !!

So what this could mean, an offer of ~300p/s (~£800m) in an around late Feb should our SP hover around current SP, would in fact only cost the acquirer peanuts, ~£270m, as cash would be buying cash. Could such a situation occur I ask myself, for sure is the answer. Our resident BoT was in total control once again yesterday, just see how easily the SP got dropped on multiple small rapid fire trades. Are our board up to the task of defending our company from such an approach or that has been muted by myself and others before, an 'arrangement' all ready taken place. This of course assumes it's an all cash deal, a third of an offer price could be made of equity so, in effect, would cost nothing to buy us. How's that for a deal !!

Problem is, with such volatility in commod pricing atm, any deal has to preempt the cash build of the target company. For us that could mean 20 to 30p/s per month in cash build. So any deal, which is usually agreed in principle months in advance , valuation of which could be blown out of the water and deal put in jeopardy esp if facilitated by loans.

Don't get me wrong, I would happily consider an offer +300p right now, but I do think given the cash generating ability of SQZ come 1/1/22, our board should be more keen on ~350p/s imo. ?Either way, I standby my sentiment that SQZ should be sold soon at a fair price.

Of course an offer could come at any moment as the ROI will be rapid no matter when a deal is done given SQZ cash generating ability with no debt to buy or service either.

Have a good afternoon all.

aimo & dyor

Given our SP of 199p, by the time of our annual results, sometime in April 2022, there is a good chance our CoH will exceed our MCap .... currently ~£535m

Takeover is nailed on at this ridiculous SP.

aimo & dyor

My orders are now being triggered .... SQZ down almost 20% in 8 sessions, on one extremely poorly written RNS imo.

Brent and NBP firm, FTSE almost entirely blue, yet we are the 'wack-a-mole' of the market it appears today.

aimo & dyor

Mommur,

Yes, noticed that too ..... BP would only need to buy 94.98% of SQZ !! ... lol

Would be ironic though .... but looking at it from a pure financial deal, for BP it would make total sense as it apparently does with JX Nippons, however, there is still the IOC which was the reason SQZ acquired the BKR deal in the first instance imo. Maybe other IOC / NOC's will be looking at UKCS in a new light too not just PE's.

PS. Can see the likes of BP et al hiving off 'clean' energy assets into a new company, ie 'BP Green' and all remaining, 'dirty' O&G assets remain in BP. Loosing the negative connotation that legacy BP will / has been known for & being re-born as a green champion of the 21st Century, whilst making loads of 'dirty money' in O&G.

Yes, as you say, very interesting move by BP should it occur.

aimo & dyor

Maverick,

"Been trying to fathom why the shares of a number of gas companies have fallen off a cliff last few days as gas prices are still strong.."

Indeed, I've mentioned this before about the ever increasing headwinds and COP26 is yet just another in a long line of both macro and micro events / decisions that just add pressure and influence sentiment. Decade earlier and SQZ would have been valued at +£1bn on today's metrics and sentiment of the day, not now !
One that concerns me more is the yet to be seen pressure applied to pension funds and investment houses to withdraw from O&G into 'green'. Given we have a significant % issued share capital held by the likes of AXA / Canaccord / Blackrock / Janus etc could be the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of SP growth, goodness knows how many hold below 3% !!

SQZ need to sell up, but as QC mentioned, why would you want to sell when you have no real skin in the game. It matters not one jot to the likes of Andrew Bell, our CFO, after 17 years of association with SQZ only hold a pathetic 19,340 ordinary shares, representing 0.007% of the Company's issued share capital. He is far from alone, why sell the family heirlooms when you can live your days out, take a substantial salary with pot-load of everlasting, gob-stopping free shares too . Tell you why, it's not the BoD heirlooms, is all shareholders.
Virtual all posters on here I would bet hold significantly more than 19,340 shares, which btw, as Dickupham mentioned, acquired from their own pockets not through LTIP and ESIP's.

What pressure are the big holders putting on the board to sell, because they too must see what we all see, or is it a case of voting out the old and in with the new come AGM re-election.

Said it before, will say it yet again, SQZ et al HAVE done a fantastic job but now need to conclude the SQZ story, sell up before there is no one left willing to buy. +300p will do before it's too late and the window of opportunity has been nailed shut and boarded up forever. I'm sure there are plenty of PE's willing to take us at a moments notice.

aimo & dyor

PS. For my sins, added a few more on opening this morning... :-)

atb

Vodafone SP just went mad at same time .... hummm

Just gone into auction ..... don't see that often with a rising SP, esp with BT !!

afaik:

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/individual-shareholders/dividends#accordion-1

If Drahi is Still Buying ...then expect these results to put a floor under our SP, nothing more. Drahi's firepower and ability to acquire stock not to mention every other blood-sucking institutional buyer will want to keep the SP as subdued as possible for as long as possible until Drahi makes an announcement sometime after 6th December. Until then, hang-in, as divi re-instatement will slowly bring back longterm divi hunting funds !

aimo

Flexmw,

With NBP back above 200p/therm (£118/boe) you would have thought that return to 240's would be in double quick time .... however, since the delayed Columbus leak and subsequent poorly constructed RNS. Which basically says we are missing out on £12,000,000 per month revenue through lack of Shells planning and clearly no recourse due to our lost earning ... we look like the share price will stagnate until Columbus is online ( well, at least until it leaks we are online of course ) ..... Plus, no mention in the RNS of our massive CoH build of recent months, that imo, would of kept us around 230-240p whilst waiting for Shell to get their game in order. SQZ must have around £200m CoH right now, getting close to 40% of current Mcap. Flegg, should be bashing down Shell's Shearwater ops mgr door, demanding they sort out their "restricted capacity" issue NOW !!!

aimo & dyor

OK, RNS today states, "Further to weekend press speculation, BT confirms that it has delivered on its £1bn of gross annualised cost savings 18 months ahead of the March 2023 target......"

No real need to issue that afaic, so why release this if its the primary piece of news for the results later this week .... my guess is Thursday's Interim Results will prove BT are well and truly, back on track ..... dividends anyone !!

aimo & dyor