Member Info for NewKOTB

"The energy regulator will announce at 11am on Thursday....Ofgem is understood to have brought forward its planned announcement on rising energy bills, originally set for this coming Monday."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/feb/02/energy-bills-rise-ofgem-price-cap

No mention here of windfall, so who knows what's to be announced but I guess the shorter's are/will be all over NS producers.

FWIW, I would think anyone with an ounce of sense would see that taxing NS producer is counter productive in so many ways, lets hope Rishi thinks so too.

Explains yesterday and today's price action ....

aimo & dyor

Opss, so sorry, used wrong initial payment for the calculations of £81m should of been £92m.

Correction as follows :

See AA's KIST recent deal to acquire ~6kboepd and 6.2mmboe in reserves for initial payment of £92m is yet another example of how under-valued SQZ are atm.

Given SQZ's known 2P reserves EoY 2021 @ 61mmboe less production to-date of ~8mmboe assuming no upgrade (which I believe there should be soon) would value SQZ at £786m on 2P's alone using KIST's deal as our metric.

KIST paid £14.84boe for TotalEnergies Shetland deal. Add on our CoH and equivalents, then you should be looking at a valuation for SQZ of ~£1.09bn or 405p/s, btw that's without taking into consideration performance payment of ~$40m which if included would take the boe 2P rate to an amazing £19.67boe !!!!

Current Mcap £651m vs £786m (based on going 2P UKCS rate alone) highlights the value on offer for an acquirer imo. SQZ have ZERO debt which makes us even more attractive.

AA is no mug, he would not have done this deal at £14.84-£19.67boe if he thought it was not value accretive.

aimo & dyor

See AA's KIST recent deal to acquire ~6kboepd and 6.2mmboe in reserves for initial payment of £81m is yet another example of how under-valued SQZ are atm.

Given SQZ's known 2P reserves EoY 2021 @ 61mmboe less production to-date of ~8mmboe assuming no upgrade (which I believe there should be soon) would value SQZ at £692m on 2P's alone using KIST's deal as our metric.

KIST paid £13.06boe for TotalEnergies Shetland deal. Add on our CoH and equivalents, then you should be looking at a valuation for SQZ of ~£0.99bn or 370p/s, btw that's without taking into consideration performance payment of ~$40m which if included would take the boe 2P rate to an amazing £19.67boe !!!!

Current Mcap £651m vs £692m (based on going 2P UKCS rate alone) highlights the value on offer for an acquirer imo. SQZ even have ZERO debt which makes us even more attractive.

AA is no mug, he would not have done this deal at £13.06-£19.67boe if he thought it was not value accretive.

aimo & dyor

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Shell said on Tuesday it was re-routing oil supplies to other depots following a cyberattack on two subsidiaries of German logistics firm Marquard & Bahls this week.

Over 17m traded since 24th Jan, that's over 6% of the company, most unusual ...... :-)

Around 86m (~32%) of the companies share capital traded since November.

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Yep, large trades once more. Certainly appears significant step-change in volume and trade size's since November are set to continue.

Trades over £50k :

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-02-01T10:07:29.563 GBX 247 167996 £414950.12 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-01T16:35:20.980 GBX 249 118678 295508.22 UT AIMX P
2022-02-01T18:00:04.000 GBX 248.284 60246 149581.1786 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-02-01T16:02:36.857 GBX 247.5 57370 141990.75 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-01T15:58:42.683 GBX 250.5 50000 125250 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-01T09:13:20.010 GBX 253 50000 126500 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-01T09:13:06.113 GBX 253 50000 126500 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-01T13:20:23.000 GBX 249.92 35000 87472 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-01T09:28:58.093 GBX 251.85 25000 62962.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-01T08:59:52.013 GBX 254.5 25000 63625 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-01T08:19:09.500 GBX 256 25000 64000 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-01T16:15:16.147 GBX 248 24165 59929.2 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

85% BoT trades, volume at 1.95m remains high too.

aimo & dyor

Flabby,

I know, difficult to understand, however you just need to watch the volume and trade type to see more to our SP ups 'n' downs than first meets the eye.

As for watching 'daily movements', our SP is unlikely to go down the pan whilst our Cash:Mcap ratio remains .

PS Just added a few hundred more.

aimo & dyor

An estimated £67m receivables added in Jan (post Opex / Hedging / Admin ) or ~10% of MCap, with NBP ~204p/therm and Brent ~$84 barrel on average production 30.3kboepd.
With EoY 2021 cash and equivalents resources reported at £218m plus Jan / Dec receivables less Nov / Dec PSA, SQZ are close to 50% of Mcap held in cash and equivalents atm. Not forgetting, SQZ are DEBT FREE too.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, perversely, the longer this continues the cheaper SQZ becomes to acquire.

Camel and straw comes to mind regarding our MCap vs Cash ratios

aimo & dyor

Volume once again at very elevated levels, 2.97m. BoT's algo's 'only' making up 77% of the 525 trades.

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-31T12:59:36.510 GBX 257 1000000 2570000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-31T12:59:55.293 GBX 257 824645 2119337.65 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-31T12:50:47.390 GBX 257 175355 450662.35 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-31T10:51:05.443 GBX 256.812 95974 246472.7489 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-31T16:35:20.890 GBX 256.5 73844 189409.86 UT AIMX P
2022-01-31T12:27:20.973 GBX 256.563 45867 117677.7512 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-31T12:40:03.860 GBX 257 28778 73959.46 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-31T16:18:40.427 GBX 255.878 25000 63969.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-01-31T17:26:46.000 GBX 256.5 22145 56801.925 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-01-31T08:02:05.360 GBX 259 19302 49992.18 Off-Book AIMX AMND P AIMX
2022-01-31T08:02:05.360 GBX 259 19302 49992.18 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Interest in SQZ continues !

aimo & dyor

Yep, following same MO as Friday, SP pinned, this time ~257p for large orders to fill ....

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-31T12:59:55.293 GBX 257 824645 £2119337.65 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-31T12:59:36.510 GBX 257 1000000 2570000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

As I said, interest in our little company appears strong, even at near record highs, esp these dark pool trades where you are unable to say if they are a buy, sell or just a share shuffle.

aimo & dyor

flexmw.

"Should say 100% in excel snapshot. But Does not effect NAV as I do not value it while in exploration mode (neither capex nor value) for simplicity. Mind u: If well is successful in Q3/4, it is major news!.."

Thanks, however I still find it difficult to understand how he made such a school-boy error in the first place, 25% has never, ever, been mentioned anywhere. Like I said, none of our assets at 25% WI either.

atb ... AIMO & DYOR

spights, you are looking at March futures contract ... current spot is Brent is $89.02

Appears we still have serious demand this morning, maybe all is not lost on 'the deal' front after all !

In the meantime,

Sunak plays with Taxes, Boris plays with Kids
Putin builds a bonfire, Biden plays with it !

aimo & dyor

SM,

Sorry didn't see your post ..... but you are absolutely correct, "I wonder where our acquisitions are.."

I did have a merger with KIST as one of my options for SQZ but that now appears to be off the table, for now.

You have to, as you say "wonder" what our board spend their time looking at and evaluating, in hindsight of these deals being made, ( KIST not the only one recently ) are our board serious on growing the business or look at SQZ as their personal pension pot to an easy life !

aimo & dyor

Appears deals are still being done, KIST have now completed 3 whilst SQZ have managed ZERO !!

Rupert Cole hope you are looking over your shoulder ...... the way shareholders in Xcite were treated (manipulated) was way beyond belief. Unfortunately there are many more companies not unlike these still around.
Hope to God that CHAR turns out to be a winner..... we all need one !

All of course in my opinion only.

Problem is the Yanks love conflict, in what ever form ! It's in their DNA, particularity if with none US entity.

This will rumble on for many, many years to come, however DARK can not be held accountable per se, just the case of waiting for Mr Market to see this. DARK are in a growth market for the foreseeable so you could rightly assume our SP will react accordingly ..... eventually !!

atb & aimo

Flexmw,

Yep, As I expected "SQZ orders being filled ~250p atm imo as it has been virtually all day...."

SP got dropped early trading by BoT's to facilitate these trades, with slight recovery in last half hour, otherwise our SP had been glued to ~250p. Large delayed trades printed throughout the day with some late reported too. BoT's made up 87% of today's trades with 24% of all trades executed at exactly 250p with volume of these trades 858k out of a total of 1.48m.

Interest in our 'little' company appears to be stronger than ever. ;-)

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-01-28T16:03:22.160 GBX 250 250000 £625000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-28T16:02:58.150 GBX 250 110393 275982.5 AT AIMX P D ALGO
2022-01-28T09:16:09.157 GBX 250 100000 250000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-01-28T16:35:07.570 GBX 252 84749 213567.48 UT AIMX P
2022-01-28T09:21:56.983 GBX 250 81600 204000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-28T15:24:12.790 GBX 250 52000 130000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-01-28T16:02:29.653 GBX 250 50607 126517.5 AT AIMX P D ALGO
2022-01-28T17:07:47.000 GBX 250.506 33074 82852.35444 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-01-27T17:47:10.000 GBX 256 23705 60684.8 Off-Book SINT N ECHO
2022-01-27T17:47:02.000 GBX 256 20000 51200 Off-Book SINT N ECHO
2022-01-28T09:21:14.800 GBX 250 18400 46000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

aimo & dyor

Oil - Brent Crude
$9003.7 bid
$9006.5 ask
+179.6

Expected it Monday, although this afternoon will do fine !

SQZ orders being filled ~250p atm imo as it has been virtually all day.

Eigg rig contract for Transocean Paul B. Loyd Jr will run / should run for between 70- 90 days imo, at last known day rate that's between $11.2m (£8.4m) - $14.4m (£10.8m) afaik. No idea cost of equipment etc but as you say this is SQZ, so could well be finger in the air as to final costs if compared to R3 HPHT well, however I would be dumbstruck if costs exceeded SQZ estimate of £43m, gross. Columbus Maersk drilling contract was for 70 days with contracted value of $8m (£6m).

ps Still no reply from Alexander Stahel regarding Eigg 25% WI btw.

aimo & dyor