Member Info for NewKOTB

"How we have not seen a TR-1 RNS after last few weeks of high volume is amazing..."

lol .... and there it is !!!!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/tr-1-notification-of-major-holdings-nbkypy0z5q5tp6k.html

Still no where near the movement in holdings to represent recent volumes.

aimo

How we have not seen a TR-1 RNS after last few weeks of high volume is amazing.

Would be nice to see UT closing trade of 250p ...

"President Putin has accused Ukraine of committing acts of genocide against areas held by the Moscow-backed rebels in the eastern Donbas region.....In our view what is now happening in Donbas is genocide, he tells the news conference." There is Putin's reason to invade Ukraine.

As for our SP, well got to say never seen the last 31 hours coming, that's for sure !!!

Numerous trailing stops been taken out for sure today .....

Just sold some telecom's to add here, the £2m trade made my decision for me.

aimo & dyor

It was actually a £2,434,320.00 trade ....

I would say I'm 95% sure it was a BUY as there was only a 10 minute window or so throughout the whole of yesterday for the trade to execute. If it is indeed a BUY then things are about to get very interesting.... as no one puts that type of money whilst SP is at an ATH without extreme confidence of a certain outcome.

aimo & dyor

NB Was this you Mommur ... :-)

£2m trade just reported, which I guess was a BUY from yesterday given the reported executed price.

15-Feb-22 13:35:19 276.00 882,000 Buy* 247.50 249.00 £2m

SP now back at level on first trading day of 2022 when we added 67% of attributable revenue for zero CapEx.

This fall is way, way over done, Wednesday was to be invasion day, could still be knowing Putin .... !!!

aimo & dyor

If this fall is due to a few Russian troops being re-deployed, what would happen if there had been three of them!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60386141

PS MCap now at ~50% cash and equivalents and adding ~£2m cash net daily atm

PPS. Putin is a master tactician .... so this fall could easily be reversed very quickly with a new ATH.

aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"more likely pumped by the guy on twitter inmo.."

Could well have been !

Stahel tweeted, "If North Egg is success, stock would be worth 1000p+; ex 500p" ..... In my book that is way off on just initial N Eigg discovery. For me initial N Eigg would add around 110p/s for discovered 60mmboe which I would value at ~£5boe in the ground. However, upon production which imo will not be until 2024 at the earliest, then all changes, to be more like adding ~312p/s with de-risked S Eigg adding another ~44p/s. One would hope that S Eigg would be fast-tracked on favorable N Eigg results which would change the model yet again.

I've estimate a conservative current valuation of 405p plus Eigg as above would be around 761p/s .... add in discovered S Eigg on production and you then get, 925p/s closer to Stahel 1000p/s. Clearly major variable here is the cash build that's already considerable, which would, in a few years be, well, anyone's guess.

Ballpark figures but future potential value is there !

PS Sasa, Still getting my head around the whys and wherefores of AA RNS this morning, so unsure atm tbh, hence why I'm in still in both. atb

aimo & dyor

MCap now back to being almost ~50% in cash and equivalents, with zero debt.

Seen it several times before where a stock climbs then is dragged down only for a t/o approach RNS to appear shortly afterwards. Not saying it will happen here, just an observation, yet still a real possibility !

Yesterday rise (esp backed by mega volume), like today's fall was wild .... regardless of what is happening in Ukraine, SP movement of the past 27 hours is most unusual against the backdrop of other O&G players. SP did appear to be a run-a-way train yesterday and then firmly hit the buffers in first few hours of trading this morning.

SP back 'under control' below the tricky 255p

Just saying !

aimo & dyor

Gap opened yesterday now closed

Oh boy, if only I had the courage, as I pointed out yesterday .... "although not liking the gap this morning", no matter, cash keeps building and gas shortage is not going away anytime soon.
PS Added a tiny few more just now.

aimo & dyor

JT41,

Before you 'dabble', no matter what stock you pick, always DYOR first .... In answer to your question, yes.

As for KIST, lets see how long before the shock of this RNS wears off and shock it is ! Be nice for the board to buy on open market soon to counter this, it certainly enforces AA image of a wide-boy. Could this RNS be a Ratners moment for AA, lets see, although I doubt it as he's too shrewd.

atb & aimo

For me it all depends on AA future plans (as there is no way AA has done his last deal) and how much 'trust' you have in him .... The 'value creation plan' is based on SP but that is detached from our MCap. Clearly many will be looking for their own entry / top-up point, as I will.

aimo & dyor

Whereas there was clear disparity between general market weakness inc other O&G players and SQZ strength yesterday, opposite is true today atm, even the volume is very low..... that's the beauty of AIM, 'is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get'.

Good to see as I previously estimated ...." Eigg rig contract for Transocean Paul B. Loyd Jr will run / should run for between 70- 90 days imo, at last known day rate that's between $11.2m (£8.4m) - $14.4m (£10.8m) .."

"Transocean said that its Paul B Loyd, Jr. semi-submersible has secured a one-well contract with Serica Energy in the UK North Sea at $160,000 per day. The rig’s previous contract was with Harbour Energy, also in the UK North Sea, with an undisclosed day rate."

So good to see SQZ secured a reasonable day rate, just need it to come in on/under budget with a commercial find now. That said, est total CapEx, £43m is around 22 days of net revenue atm, so no big deal in terms of expenditure. Just need it to be successful otherwise, like any other failed drill the market will react accordingly, albeit, probably short lived so long as the drill is not super hyped beforehand. Only around 8 months until we find out !

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/transocean-rigs-land-new-jobs-with-better-day-rates/

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Yep, Alexander Stahel buying today also, "I re-entered bigger than ever bw. 180-275 (eg today).."

:-)

Monday : Mega Volume 3.6m with 83.2% of 2132 trades by BoT's
Trades over £50k :
tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-02-14T08:44:09.860 GBX 270.5 576441 £1559272.905 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-14T15:25:19.293 GBX 272.75 341490 931413.975 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-02-14T16:10:39.857 GBX 273.92 70000 191744 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-14T16:10:26.307 GBX 273.92 49092 134472.8064 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-14T16:35:28.507 GBX 276 47565 131279.4 UT AIMX P
2022-02-14T10:15:56.597 GBX 273 47622 130008.06 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-02-14T09:02:13.217 GBX 270 45000 121500 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-14T16:57:37.000 GBX 273.924 32459 88912.99116 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-02-14T08:44:44.353 GBX 273.183 30496 83309.88768 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-14T08:07:43.223 GBX 270 29589 79890.3 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-02-14T17:42:21.003 GBX 274.068 27815 76232.0142 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-02-14T08:22:28.177 GBX 270 25000 67500 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-14T17:44:16.000 GBX 273.294 22351 61083.94194 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-02-14T09:16:37.847 GBX 270 22222 59999.4 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-14T14:59:18.257 GBX 272.04 18385 50014.554 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-14T14:58:50.800 GBX 271.447 18425 50014.10975 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Highest daily volume since Sept 2017 (BKR announcement), and third highest from as far back as Sept 2015 when we moved up from 4.87p on interim's following acquisition of 18% interest in the Erskine.

Clear disparity between general market weakness inc other O&G players and SQZ strength today.

.......hummmm !!!

aimo & dyor

As our SP climbs (with added macro events) time is fast running out for anyone considering acquiring us. Whilst our SP has +ve momentum, esp gaining new ATH (as today), this will add further pressure on anyone wishing to make a move ... longer they wait, will mean the framing of an offer will be less appealing or even escape their preferred bid. Tipping point for them is just, God forbid, a Putin's missile away. I've given reasons previously as to why I feel +350p/s at this point would not be unreasonable for both parties, however as mentioned events could easily overtake the situation and 350p would be seen as too low, let's see !!

Time to put up or shut up, imo

In the meantime, SQZ add's ~£2m cash per day to our cash hoard, post hedging / Opex / Capex with zero debt.

Current cash, equivalents and owed revenue I've estimated to be ~£320m atm ... woww !!

aimo & dyor

Last few weeks, esp couple of days or so would have convinced shorter's to closeout majority, if not all of their 9.6m shorts that were open at the start of the month .... let's hope so. Volumes will be interesting over next few days as it has been the last couple of weeks, although not liking the gap this morning. NBP +6%, 197p/therm and Brent down a little atm ... so market looking undecided.... SP was up 14p, 274p at one point this morning.... as Mr Anderson would of said, 'Standby for Action, we are about to launch Serica.... anything can happen in the next half hour (or weeks in this case)'

After the weekend storms, sunny and still here atm, lets hope Putin doesn't kick off another storm.

aimo & dyor