Member Info for NewKOTB

D220,

When in need of a 'friend', just call on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei !

Looking like the boot is on the other foot .... Iran know the West will need its oil, so expect a deal imo.

" According to a senior analyst at global energy markets intelligence company Kpler, spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com at the time, in this scenario Iran could see an 80 percent recovery of full production within six months and a 100 percent recovery within 12 months. “[As at the beginning of Q4 2021] Iranian crude oil production capacity stood at 3.9 to 4.0 million barrels per day [bpd] according to the NIOC with current output holding near 2.4 million, of which 1.7-1.8 million is consumed in domestic refineries, and close to 1 million barrels per day of condensate and natural gas liquids are also being produced at present, primarily from the South Pars gas field, although total condensate and NGL production capacity stands at around 1 3 million barrels per day,” said the Kpler analyst. “Ultimately, we believe Iranian production could technically jump by 1.7 million bpd including 200,000 bpd of condensate and LPG/ethane, in a 6 to 9 month period from when sanctions are lifted and an immediate impact of a 5-10 percent fall in the oil price would be likely,” the analyst concluded..."

Get the Iranian JCPOA deal signed off, then we will see embargo on all Russian O&G.

aimo

Looking likely atm ..... Oil / Gas climbing rapidly in half hour ....

:-)

flexmw,

"Can’t blame you for trying Newkotb, it seemed an ideal time to try the sell & buy back lower.."

Step back 18 months and I would of been happy to get ~270p/s ..... context I guess, lol

Question is, what is driving our SP that basically poo-pooed our RNS, pure macro environment or something else ?

Doing the math on the next two weeks and I would of put money on our SP reflecting that ... in fact I did, ~12%, went red when all the time should of gone black.... live 'n' learn.

BTW, Massive jump in Jefferies target +25% .... interesting in itself too.

atb

aimo & dyor

"Jefferies raises Serica Energy price target to 360 (290) pence - 'buy'"

Appears the window for my ~12% buy-back has firmly closed now ..... Oh Dear.... :-(

aimo & dyor

Monday: Very High Volume 3.84m with 79.5% of 2292 trades by BoT's
Trades over £50k :
tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-02-28T16:35:26.443 GBX 277.5 233212 647163.3 UT AIMX P
2022-02-28T14:42:54.277 GBX 272.35 87460 238197.31 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-28T14:42:43.193 GBX 272.35 83025 226118.5875 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-28T08:38:10.323 GBX 279.48 70000 195636 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-28T14:47:17.650 GBX 267.5 73000 195275 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-28T14:26:43.270 GBX 276.75 68924 190747.17 Off-Book XPOL P XPOL
2022-02-28T14:37:17.043 GBX 270.575 51629 139695.1668 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-28T15:36:28.363 GBX 270.72 46796 126686.1312 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-02-28T12:14:48.727 GBX 283.793 25000 70948.25 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-28T15:35:27.253 GBX 270 25000 67500 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-02-28T14:22:41.487 GBX 277 18640 51632.8 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-02-28T10:00:53.843 GBX 283.114 17707 50130.99598 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-28T08:14:28.013 GBX 279.569 17880 49986.9372 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Well, that RNS took us by surprise, although given Fridays 22pt fall I guess not everyone was !! SQZ really need to tighten their ship (platform), this was not the first occasion and probably not the last. Also little over 414k dark pool trades took place.

After having a buy order auto-executed during the fall, given RNS I decided to cut my overweight holding by ~12% but having seen the market response into close I'm now thinking could well be a mistake. Looking at the large trades that followed RNS, appears I my not have been alone! That said, I have placed orders to replenish part of my holding should the SP fall below my sale price and remainder if fall is substantial within next few weeks or so.

aimo & dyor

Just lost ~66% of our revenue for at least 2 weeks, so more likely 3-4 knowing SQZ, at a time of unprecedented commod prices, although SQZ is managing to, some how, stay blue !

Under 'normal' trading that RNS would have seen us fall at least 10% imo, probably more.

Mr Market never fails to surprise.

aimo & dyor

Buying opportunity over next few weeks that was never foreseen and I don't just mean for us shareholders.

Probably explains the 22pt fall on Friday too .... leaked out for sure imo.

aimo & dyor

"Never mind .... added a few more .... "

That's the downside of leaving orders to fill .... :-(

14:21 and instant 10pt flash drop from nowhere .... !!!

Never mind .... added a few more .

aimo & dyor

He was most certainly brimming with confidence.... love it !

Julian could not get his words out quick enough, as I say, bursting with enthusiasm and no need to pause when making his pitch, just natural flow (like our gas) .... excellent afaic

Just added a few more £k.

aimo & dyor

If I was working for BP and about to return home for good, I would make sure that I caused as many problems as I could .... must be numerous ways to 'sabotage' production and operations going forward.

aimo

Market will take its pound of flesh on Monday for sure .... but BP's SP will turn on a sixpence, so be careful of looking for a too low an entry .

If they had not taken this decision then real possibility of producing and never getting paid (SWIFT) and other sanction would drag us down so long as we have connections to Putin .... It may feel as if we are cutting off an arm but in reality BP will quickly adapt and be stronger for it imo.

Plenty of Large Chinese oil companies willing to take our share I would guess !!!

Well done BP ..... great decision and will help meet our reduction emissions target sooner.

Can see the market liking this but won't stop BP being played.

aimo

Friday: Average Volume 1.3m with 64.8% of 830 trades by BoT's
Trades over £50k :
tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-02-25T16:35:01.673 GBX 267.5 92215 £246675.125 UT AIMX P
2022-02-25T17:57:17.000 GBX 274.337 37994 104231.5998 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-02-25T15:26:53.220 GBX 270 22845 61681.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-25T14:11:46.770 GBX 269 20000 53800 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-02-25T14:10:20.567 GBX 269 20000 53800 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

Volume was nothing to write home about with no real large trades and very low % of BoT trades ( lowest % for many, many months), yet we still gave up all our gains and some from Thursdays news of Putin's invasion ( note : NOT RUSSIA's ). Unbelievable 22pt's (7.6%) fall given NBP esp with NS2 sunk that Mr Market took us back down below Thursdays opening. Added few more on Friday and will do again should a Hughie Green opportunity comes knocking !

As for Putin, esp after today's worrying turn of events, he should either be ousted, placed in an asylum or removed by lethal method asap ... I'm not one for wishing ill on anyone, but there comes a time when enough is enough, that time was last Thursday afaic.

All very much imo & dyor

Since the start of the Ukraine crisis, the country has been the target of near-constant cyber attacks, widely blamed on Russia.

But the attackers are not all working for the Kremlin.

One group of “patriotic” Russian vigilante hackers told me they did it for fun in their spare time, revelling in causing cyber-chaos.

Dmitry (not his real name) told me he wanted to help his country “beat Ukraine from behind his computer”.

In the past week he said he and his five accomplices had carried out numerous denial of service attacks, flooding Ukrainian servers with data and taking them temporarily offline.

They also emailed 20 bomb threats to schools, hacked into the live dashboard feeds of an unidentified Ukrainian "rapid response team" and found a way to set up official Ukrainian government emails ending "mail.gov.ua", he said.

The BBC watched as the group temporarily took down a Ukrainian military website.

"This is just the beginning," Dmitry said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621a0f80980bea49f4b7a0f9%26Russian%20vigilante%20hackers%20join%20the%20attack%20on%20Ukraine%262022-02-26T12%3A48%3A14.722Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:8eeb69dc-3601-426a-b890-4e3a5582a051&pinned_post_asset_id=621a0f80980bea49f4b7a0f9&pinned_post_type=share

Flabby,

Agree, madness ... just finished listening to podcast which may answer your question ... goes on to explain that invasion has had the effect of pumping more gas from Russia to EU as utilities take up their options ... so even more revenue for Putin. Also talks about Iranian deal possibly over w/e and OPEC+ meeting next week, together with US shale, plus what would happen if pipeline crossing Ukraine would be disrupted ... talks of $80 - $200 WTI oil depending on various outcomes.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyDoNPWNJM?s=20

As for SQZ, poor day, given up all and some more gains of yesterday, likewise NBP almost back to pre invasion day ..... as if the West have taken past 36 hours as a none event !!!!

aimo & dyor

Recently, over past few days & weeks our SP has been gyrating more than Tony Manero hips !

Not normal behavior, far from it .... One could forgiven that the taps on NS2 are about to be opened and there is no gas crisis in the EU either atm.

ACW, come on, get a deal away, one way or another. Our SP has become no more than a plaything. Not good at all.

aimo & dyor

Make that MINUS -0.25p/s gain in SP ...... wtf

Not enough volume to warrant fall, so background seller active, I'm expecting large after hours trades today / Monday being reported.

aimo