Member Info for NewKOTB

Mani01,

"Is the end game approaching?.."

Well it does feel like now or never to me.

Or, the market could just be preparing for another O&G boom bubble if the West carry through on threats to weaning itself off Putin's hydrocarbons.

aimo & dyor

Mommur, my pleasure, atb ... :-)

So, with production of circa 15kboepd, during the Rhum down time, ~18 days, SQZ still managed revenue ~£22m net.

Few more large & late reported trades

Volume 4.6m

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-03-17T17:38:06.467 GBX 370 223042 £825255.4 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-03-17T17:38:06.447 GBX 370 148694 550167.8 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-03-17T17:38:06.377 GBX 370 140537 519986.9 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-03-17T10:05:53.357 GBX 347 57110 198171.7 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T10:53:25.150 GBX 350 27602 96607 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T10:20:46.487 GBX 350.5 25000 87625 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-03-17T09:03:24.040 GBX 350.25 25000 87562.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-03-17T16:20:01.827 GBX 370 24590 90983 Off-Book XPOL P XPOL
2022-03-17T09:14:05.723 GBX 344.06 23747 81703.9282 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P LRGS AIMX
2022-03-17T10:50:20.730 GBX 350.29 22222 77841.4438 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-03-17T10:53:25.150 GBX 350 19889 69611.5 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T10:05:53.337 GBX 347 17290 59996.3 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T09:23:57.157 GBX 343 17265 59218.95 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T12:11:35.223 GBX 355.24 14438 51289.5512 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

There we have it ... some massive trades that are mainly dark pool one's

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-03-17T15:39:10.793 GBX 370 300000 £1110000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-03-17T13:53:34.843 GBX 367 250000 917500 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-03-17T13:53:23.877 GBX 367 250000 917500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-03-17T15:16:05.457 GBX 370 200000 740000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-03-17T15:39:10.797 GBX 370 189000 699300 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-03-17T16:20:01.837 GBX 370 100873 373230.1 Off-Book XPOL P XPOL
2022-03-17T16:35:05.693 GBX 370 89079 329592.3 UT AIMX P
2022-03-17T13:22:08.993 GBX 360 78870 283932 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-03-17T10:05:53.357 GBX 347 57110 198171.7 AT AIMX P ALGO
2022-03-17T11:31:53.930 GBX 352 50000 176000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
2022-03-17T09:02:55.763 GBX 346.535 50000 173267.5 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P LRGS AIMX
2022-03-17T09:02:03.053 GBX 346.535 50000 173267.5 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P LRGS AIMX
2022-03-17T14:34:43.393 GBX 367.25 48440 177895.9 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX

This feels more than buying and waiting / hoping for a steady SP growth, esp when we hit an ATH.

Real step change in trade values today too.

aimo & dyor

Mommur,

Was looking at the Hardy's worth today myself as it happens .... now +£100m

They did reduce by 200k in last notification as per Serica shareholder information page, add on the dividends of the past two years and that works out to be circa £2.4m withdrawn ....

So that's their original investment returned plus a little extra too ... "In four years, Mr Hardy has spent at least £1 million buying more than 27 million shares, giving him a 10 per cent stake"

PS Enjoy your break.

aimo & dyor

Don't know who we have caught the eye of today but we have some serious background trading occurring although no surprise really, given all it takes is 2 minutes on a calculator to see value here.

aimo & dyor

Close above 356.5p would do me ..... into uncharted territory then afaic.

aimo & dyor

For H1 2021 SQZ production from all wells averaged 18,860boepd, today we had news that excluding RHUM, our largest producing field we still managed "average net production has been in excess of 15,000 boe/d.." during SCM changeout ops.

I'm now fully expecting current production to be at top end of our forecast for 2022 guidance at 27,100 – 33,600boe/d, or even slightly more. This at a time when NBP (250p/therm) prices are sky high and Brent ($100) too.... back to >£3,000,000 per day net revenue, Exactamundo & Happy Days ... :-)

aimo & dyor

lol, no sooner said than done ..... well done to the SQZ team...... esp "During the Rhum outage, the company's average net production has been in excess of 15,000 boe/d."

Production has been soooo much better than I expected during SCM ops, now looking forward to full net production figures, has to be now well over 30kboepd.

aimo & dyor

Guess it could be to do with "during the Rhum shut down and we will look for ways to optimise the Bruce production rates during this period......"

Would be nice if SQZ RNS's to say 'SCM changeout successfully completed and our team are now optimising production, further RNS to follow on improved flow rates'..etc etc

I would have thought so too Mommur, so what's the delay ?

Almost back in port ... although its Aberdeen not Leith !

So how long does it take to commission and complete safety checks on a replacement SCM ?

Once repairs complete, I'm looking forward to an additional ~£3,000,000 per day revenue, gross.

Excellent recover in SP today regardless of Brent going sub $100 and NBP not able to make its mind up on which direction to take, btw ..... how's that pedalo doing ?

aimo & dyor

So this is the main driver for fall of NBP recently ...

"We're seeing the **strongest** flows of Russian gas into the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine started, with Mallnow registering 3 consecutive days of non-stop flows, plus steady high inflows at Velke and NS1. At current prices, that's quite a bounty for the Kremlin.."

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1503342139014529030?s=20&t=Ar5TVT1mJEbiIgMXZRAf3A

Out of date info I'm afraid as the link provided is for data as of yesterday.... 0.6knts isn't exactly 'moving' in terms of returning to port either, pedalo at Butlin's would travel faster and also stated as 'Restricted movement'.. :-(

Would have thought our SP should of responded if so, as we all know SQZ is leaky, bit like Butlin's pedalo's .... be nice if finished though .. :-)

NBP closed at 267p .... :-(

aimo & dyor

How can NBP Future be sat at 273p/therm, that's ONLY 20% up on Q4 2021 average of 226p given what has occurred over the last 3 weeks, not to mention supply shortage prior to Putin's madness.

aimo & dyor

Weather looking favourable for whole of week ... :-)

IRT,

Thanks, thought for one minute ACW et al had pulled off a blinder .... it appears though we were producing from R3 without formal consent ... lol

"Decision made by the Secretary of State
Secretary of State notice under regulation 16(1) - 10/03/2022
Secretary of State decision to agree to or refuse to agree to the OGA granting of consent - Letter to the developer - 10/03/2022.."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1060126/D-4267-2021_-_Serica_-_Rhum_-_REG_14_6__ES_Acceptance_Letter.pdf

aimo & dyor

So we know that SQZ/IOC have equal share (50%) of Licence 198 Block 3/29a. What many may not be aware of, afaik is, as part of the BKR deal SQZ also acquired 100% interest in other Rhum blocks too:

Rhum – non-unitised assets
Licence P.566, Block 3/29b (ALL) - Licence expires June 2023 atm
Licence P.975, Block 3/24b (ALL)
Licence P.975, Block 3/29d (ALL)

These blocks extend to north, east and south of current 3/29a block with Rhum field extending well into these. The most important thing to remember is SQZ have 100% of these, so why not drill and subsequently retain 100% of revenue too.
Serica are on record as saying " Serica plans to seek opportunities to further increase the percentage recovery of gas in place..." To me that would signal more wells and I'm now guessing that we requested to advance these licences but the OGA initially denied such request for whatever reason .... Kwasi appears to have now given a route to produce more. Thanks, I assume, in no small part to ACW / MF being quick out of the blocks given EU/UK statement for reducing dependency on Putin, hence recent news story.

As I understand it Rhum had ~436mmbl's of 2C's across 5 reservoirs, gross at time of deal with expected ultimate recovery factor of 65% to 68%.... so plenty more to go after. I would also think that work has already been done in assessing the opportunities on offer in all of Rhum blocks so could be well ahead of the curve.

**** ACW / MF please issue RNS to clarify the situation. ****

aimo & dyor

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/11/ftse-100-markets-live-news-sanctions-russia-oil-gas/

@ 5:29pm - 11 MARCH 2022

So news broke just after Mkt closed on Friday ..... :-)