Member Info for NewKOTB

Or to put it another way .....

Using 2021's 12 month quarterly average of Brent $71/barrel and NBP 117p/therm then at present rate of production, post Opex / Hedging / CapEx and Admin would result in net revenue of ~£460m. However, so far 2022 has average Brent $100/barrel up 41% on 2021 and NBP 231p/therm up 98% on 2021, should this continue, net revenue would be ~£1bn.

If you add on our 2021 EoY CoH, there is every chance that SQZ will end 2022 in a negative enterprise value (-EV) situation given envisaged 2022 NBP/Brent, even at ~400p/s ...... madness !!!!

aimo & dyor

In case anyone wanted to see how Brent / UK Gas has been doing over the last 12 months or so :

Marker prices 1Q 2022(to date) 4Q 21 3Q 21 2Q 21 1Q 21
Brent ($/bbl) 100.64 79.76 73.51 68.97 61.12
NBP(p/therm) 230.99 226.24 118.81 64.79 49.82

Current Brent : $103/barrel
Current NBP April Fut : 263p/therm

Then think about our revenue based on increased net production ( I est presently @ ~34kboepd ), recently attributable BKR increasing by ~67%, zero debt and cash and equivalents of ~38% of MCap.

Afaic, we remain in the ballpark for an approach.

aimo & dyor

Appears as an AIM stock we are still easily influenced despite our $1bn MCap status ... SQZ's production is 85% gas, which has risen ~15% over the past two day, although, inexplicably SQZ feels the need to follow Brent, which is falling again today, >$11/barrel in two days.

Never mind .... just checking down the back of the 3 piece suite, not just the sofa !

aimo & dyor

After a substantial drop yesterday our SP tried upmost to keep its head above water .... all to no avail.
BoT in little over two minutes drop us from 365 down to 359 on little volume and continues to do so.
Over two days, so far >12% fall in SP against a 20% rise (~9% yesterday, ~11% today so far) in NBP Futures.

Time to start feathering in again.

aimo & dyor

Doubt it will be 18th .... Easter Monday !

Also 'said'... I'm not having a good day today but then neither is our SP.... :-0

Also say, "We will know North Eigg results in October (spuds in July). It may become the most porfitable tie-back in the North Sea, perhaps globally. ...... Would add 400-600p to intrinsic value..."

D'oh! ..... yep 7pm.

Blame the lost hour over the weekend for my brain not having woken up.

As for today, profit taking by all accounts imo, NBP is up and oil down due maybe to Shanghai lockdown.

aimo

https://twitter.com/Folken911/status/1508175694706221059

Thanks for that MissDosh.

So early start on a weekend ... 7am ... :-(

Interesting that White Tundra Portfolio does not show SQZ, as of yet, neither does it feature in its Corp Presentations or Price Targets.
Appears to be a one-man-band, either way, I will 'try' and make it at 7am, if not, then hope to find it on:

https://www.whitetundra.ca/archived-seminars

https://www.whitetundra.ca/about

aimo & dyor

"I like $SQZ at 400p more than six months ago at 185p...."

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1507123292020355078

Excellent afternoon recovery of SP ....

aimo & dyor

Big boys were not ready to allow our SP to escape ...... yet !

Up ~8% to back to flat in a few hours.

aimo

Very nice ~£400k late reported BUY .... are we being Yanked !

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-03-24T15:03:21.910 GBX 398.946 100000 398946 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX

Hi Scilex9,

"What production figures would you consider to be above target..."

tbh, I'm looking for slightly improved revision to our 2022 est production figures of 27,100 to 33,600 boe/d net to Serica given our planned work-overs and enhancements to Bruce platform. 2021 is history and should justifiably be seen as the precursor to the real event, our 2022 100% BKR. SQZ added amazing production H2 via R3 / Columbus although not without its challenges. Ineos, afaik are not taking FPS off-line for prolonged works this summer which accounted for ~3 weeks in June 2021 lost production this will add further cash to the coffers, although having lost Rhum for 3 weeks will impact Q1 production figures and may stifle any production revision I'm looking for.
Dividends will be the big one for all investors come results, how will they spend all this cash. I would also like to see revised 2P reserves given new data from Rhum and Columbus too.

btw, interesting how strong our SP has been most afternoon sessions recently, particularly as both NBP and Brent are down today .... :-) Yanks, love them or hate them you can't ignore them imo

aimo & dyor

lynthip,

You have clearly misunderstood me, either that or you got out of the wrong side this morning. ZIOC has been drifting backwards since 2018, that much is fact. 'Dark forces' is clearly subjective, as such I stated my personal fear that all will not be in the best long-term interest of PI's, as time will probably prove. As for me " just making things up again", please, for balance, quote me where I last 'made things up' on ZIOC.

In the meantime, my shares from 2016 remain in the bottom sock draw hoping one day to see the light and even a decent profit too.

atb & aimo

The market appears to be entering the largest commods super cycle boom period for many a year, yet ZIOC SP continues to drift backwards .... very dark forces at work here I fear and I doubt it's for the benefit of us PI'S.

AIMO

Since SQZ recently broke out of our steady rising tortoise channel dating back to 2017 BKR RNS, we now find ourselves within an explosive hare channel, that afaic could run and run. It's almost as if we are back in 2010 with the last O&G boom when you could virtually pick any O&G play, no matter what and still make easy money. Difference here is SQZ are no fly-by-night outfit, real assets producing real and enormous daily FCF, with no debt either...

If you said to me 6 months ago @ ~150p/s we would be knocking on the door of 400p/s I would of found it extremely hard to justify..... but here we are entering what appears to be the start of a new commod's super cycle.

aimo & dyor

We all know how expensive deploying a platform and associated infrastructure and subsequent decommissioning would be, let alone timescales for such. We have 5 major players in the FPSO segment today, CNNOC, Pertrobras, Shell, Exxon and TotalEnergies SE, you could also include BP and Chevron too. Anyone of which could partner us along with an off-take agreement, if it helps sweeten the deal. FPSO are more flexible particularity if CoP for the field is relatively short or in question. FPSO's are always being redeployed, recent example being the Petrojarl Knarr. FPSO's could enable an accelerate production timeframe, bring production on-line much quicker and perhaps take advantage of elevated commod prices too.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/norway_clears_shell_for_knarr_fpso_removal-23-mar-2022-168359-article/

My JOG thought for the day....'Is the FPSO route an option !'

aimo & dyor

So we now know the reason behind all those recent wild gyrations in SP without news... nothing like being in the know before the general market does at mates rates too.

aimo & dyor

dickupham,

Should there be yet another raise, then I too would cash out, without hesitation.

Not a chance of JOG going it alone and making it a success imo. Costs associated with O&G services will rise substantially at a time of high interest rates for which JOG would need to sell bonds in order to service massive debt payments for a project that will take several years to produce any meaningful revenue. If our board are unable to put a deal together given everything, then they are not fit for purpose and many will see what the emperor is actually wearing and turn away in their droves.

Deal has to happen, simple as ..... & soon !

aimo & dyor