Member Info for NewKOTB

Thanks Hituu,

"has been given permission to increase production...allowing Serica Energy to produce more gas from its Rhum field"

Interesting, although I had no idea whatsoever that UK Gov had put restrictions on Rhum's actual gas production in any form, new one on me !

Should there be a formal lifting of these 'restrictions', then this must qualify for an RNS, maybe we wanted to drill another well or two and were told NO !! .... For this to be active media story would mean that ACW / MW have been proactive in opening this channel to additional production, well done if so.

Must add, I have wondered why SQZ have not to-date been active in looking to expand Rhum production given our current licencing areas. If we are to look at drilling another well be great to extend PAUL B.LOYD JR for another 90 days.

Anyone know what these 'restrictions' are we have in place ?

Interesting, very interesting ....

aimo & dyor

Probably the 5.5p / 7p profit takers, 50-100% gain. That's the downside of placings at such low rates.

aimo

Hope IOC are paying their half for repairs too ....

Closed >13% down .....

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1501617180621873159/photo/1

Or has a deal been struck with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini for Iranian's

Just dropped 17% .... has a deal been done to end the war !

Dusty Bin taken out ..... :-(

Was a long one at that ....

Ok, new holdings recently announced .....

Old notification I've put in brackets ()

Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,383,036 10.52% (10.63%)
AXA Framlington Investment Managers** 26,543,934 9.84% (10.62%)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 13,886,149 5.15% (5.06%)
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.00% (unchanged)
Janus Henderson Investors 10,444,417 3.87% (4.01%)
Interactive Investor 10,437,675 3.87% (3.75%)
JPMorgan Asset Management 9,653,917 3.58% (3.10%)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 9,267,500 3.44% (4.95%)
BlackRock 9,223,226 3.42% (3.44%)
Polar Capital 8,511,452 3.15% (3.74%)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,874,580 2.91% (unchanged)
* Private client holdings
** Holding includes AXA Framlington Investment managers and other AXA entities.

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 28 February 2022 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 7 March 2022, the Company had 269,783,823 (268,891,044) ordinary shares in issue of which 13.44% (24.18%) is not held in public hands.

Looking like she's targeting Dusty Bin !

https://img1.etsystatic.com/125/0/10954642/il_570xN.886568849_tns4.jpg

aimo & dyor

"also EU claims to have enough gas for winter...."

lol, so that's until March 21st

Breaking :

UK expected to ban Russian oil ....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60657155?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622773baec502b53cd48132e%26UK%20expected%20to%20ban%20Russian%20oil%262022-03-08T15%3A26%3A35.332Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:67fd7c03-439b-4d03-9feb-22963bb7e39f&pinned_post_asset_id=622773baec502b53cd48132e&pinned_post_type=share

legache,

Had no choice, she had me on the ropes !!

Brent moving up so market guessing on some form of Russian ban/restrictions whilst NBP static'ish atm

atb

Decided to take some off the table and reduce by ~12% just now, down to holding ~77% of original investment. Prior to last month or so, ~350p was considered by me to be a good reduction point, so I stuck by it, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer.... Lol .... See it's already above my sell price, so poorer atm !!!

I'm sure SQZ has a lot longer to run, next consideration point for me will be somewhere in the range of 400-450p unless circumstances change.

BTW, another factor in the sell was the wife, say no more !!!

atb

JT41,

"Does your header refer to SQZ or KIS being up for sale ?.."

Both and neither .... !

AA did say in a recent interview that should an approach (post Shetland deal) be made he would give it appropriate consideration, or words to that affect. Where as ACW et al have never so much hinted at a sale, however I would like to think the same 'appropriate consideration' given by AA would be taken by ACW too.

The point I was making is that old school valuations in terms of NS boe pricing may have changed forever, as such it becomes evermore difficult to gauge a fair sale price. atb

aimo & dyor

Boka Polaris just arrive on-location.... :-)

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:1.710/centery:60.125/zoom:16

TS,

"Will be interesting to see how far and how quickly the markets revalue the unloved and neglected oil and gas companies in the North sea..."

As you say given recent events, that's the great unknown ..... Should we continue down the path we appear to have set ourselves as part of European wanting to wean itself off Russian O&G, what price would UKCS NS boe's reserves be prices at ?
Historically that's been £15-£20 boe ... could easily see +£20-£30 becoming the norm. If so SQZ valuation would rocket, particularity if we bring N Eigg into play.

Thanks btw.

aimo & please dyor too.

dickupham,

I would like to throw my hat in for "Smartar5e" of the Year award ..... as a non-chart'ist 'expert', either Friday 1st (more fool me) or Monday 4th April is looking promising for a move towards ~312p atm followed by blue sky but as mentioned, I'm no expert in these matters, just a tinkerer ... lol.

Move could either be driven by RNS or atm, more likely, sadly by macro events.

Immediate target I see as ~240p

PS Does the title come with an engraved award ?

https://media.tenor.co/images/a11b11511500d874242c57710d253860/raw

aimo & dyor

Last month AA's KIST recent deal to acquire ~6kboepd and 6.2mmboe in reserves for initial payment of £92m is yet another example of how under-valued SQZ are atm.

Given SQZ's known 2P reserves EoY 2020 @ 61mmboe less production to-date of ~8mmboe assuming no reserves upgrade (which I believe there should be soon) would value SQZ at £786m on 2P's alone using KIST's deal as our metric.

KIST paid £14.84boe for TotalEnergies Shetland deal. Add on our cash, equivalents and owed revenue totaling ~£366m, then you should be looking at a valuation for SQZ of ~£1.15bn or 427p/s, btw that's without taking into consideration KIST's performance payment of ~$40m which if included would take the boe 2P rate to an amazing £19.67boe !!!!

Current Mcap £896m vs £786m (based on going 2P UKCS rate alone) highlights the value on offer for an acquirer imo. SQZ have ZERO debt and very limited de-comm liabilities which makes us even more attractive and btw ignores any success with Eigg.

SQZ would represent an instance accretive deal that will throw off cash like there is no tomorrow, except there is a tomorrow and one after that too etc etc, with cash continuing to flood in day after day, producing ~5% of UK gas requirements. An acquirer would be buying our massively disproportionately cash hoard for cash, a net equal transaction

So even after the macro enduced recent rise to ATH, SQZ, remains a bargain.... but for how long ?

Current SP : 330p vs Est Current Valuation : 427p (value gap +30%)

aimo & dyor