Member Info for NewKOTB

lynthip,

You have clearly misunderstood me, either that or you got out of the wrong side this morning. ZIOC has been drifting backwards since 2018, that much is fact. 'Dark forces' is clearly subjective, as such I stated my personal fear that all will not be in the best long-term interest of PI's, as time will probably prove. As for me " just making things up again", please, for balance, quote me where I last 'made things up' on ZIOC.

In the meantime, my shares from 2016 remain in the bottom sock draw hoping one day to see the light and even a decent profit too.

atb & aimo

The market appears to be entering the largest commods super cycle boom period for many a year, yet ZIOC SP continues to drift backwards .... very dark forces at work here I fear and I doubt it's for the benefit of us PI'S.

AIMO

Since SQZ recently broke out of our steady rising tortoise channel dating back to 2017 BKR RNS, we now find ourselves within an explosive hare channel, that afaic could run and run. It's almost as if we are back in 2010 with the last O&G boom when you could virtually pick any O&G play, no matter what and still make easy money. Difference here is SQZ are no fly-by-night outfit, real assets producing real and enormous daily FCF, with no debt either...

If you said to me 6 months ago @ ~150p/s we would be knocking on the door of 400p/s I would of found it extremely hard to justify..... but here we are entering what appears to be the start of a new commod's super cycle.

aimo & dyor

We all know how expensive deploying a platform and associated infrastructure and subsequent decommissioning would be, let alone timescales for such. We have 5 major players in the FPSO segment today, CNNOC, Pertrobras, Shell, Exxon and TotalEnergies SE, you could also include BP and Chevron too. Anyone of which could partner us along with an off-take agreement, if it helps sweeten the deal. FPSO are more flexible particularity if CoP for the field is relatively short or in question. FPSO's are always being redeployed, recent example being the Petrojarl Knarr. FPSO's could enable an accelerate production timeframe, bring production on-line much quicker and perhaps take advantage of elevated commod prices too.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/norway_clears_shell_for_knarr_fpso_removal-23-mar-2022-168359-article/

My JOG thought for the day....'Is the FPSO route an option !'

aimo & dyor

So we now know the reason behind all those recent wild gyrations in SP without news... nothing like being in the know before the general market does at mates rates too.

aimo & dyor

dickupham,

Should there be yet another raise, then I too would cash out, without hesitation.

Not a chance of JOG going it alone and making it a success imo. Costs associated with O&G services will rise substantially at a time of high interest rates for which JOG would need to sell bonds in order to service massive debt payments for a project that will take several years to produce any meaningful revenue. If our board are unable to put a deal together given everything, then they are not fit for purpose and many will see what the emperor is actually wearing and turn away in their droves.

Deal has to happen, simple as ..... & soon !

aimo & dyor

It's clear, given recent macro events that all UKCS low-hanging fruit will be taken first .... question is are JOG fruity, ripe and sweet enough for the picking.

Any enhancements to field economics be it tax breaks or easing of ESG barriers etc would for sure place JOG on the menu, even if only for tasting.

Are JOG doomed to remain on the Du jour menu in plain sight for all to see or are we now ready to move up to the favoured A La Carte ..... some Chef's do like to take their time, just so everything is perfect in order to justify prices asked.

Are our Board ready to challenge Dabiz Munoz or will the heat of the kitchen be too much.

Me, for one, I'm looking forward to whatever delight is served as either way it will certainly be better than microwave meal for one !

aimo & dyor

"US President Joe Biden has called on private companies and organisations in the US to "lock their digital doors", claiming that intelligence suggests Russia is planning a cyber-attack on the US.

The UK's cyber-authorities are also supporting the White House's calls for "increased cyber security precautions", though neither has given any evidence that Russia is planning a cyber-attack..."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60841924

"See we had another significant share-shuffle yesterday, one of many recently :.."

and another today too ..

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-03-22T15:59:15.367 GBX 377 220000 £829400 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-03-22T15:59:05.730 GBX 377 220000 £829400 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

See we had another significant share-shuffle yesterday, one of many recently :

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-03-21T11:42:56.447 GBX 380 177300 673740 Off-Book XOFF P ECHO
2022-03-21T11:42:56.447 GBX 380 177300 673740 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

aimo & dyor

Well, that's made me happy ..... closed the 286p gap in a flash, although I can't find an actual trade so still shows as a gap, hence why not all gaps 'get closed' !

Always a concern with gaps that BoTs want to target them.

Flush em Out, I say, Flush em Out !!!

aimo & dyor

legache,

I really hope not .... that said, if push comes to shove, then I would rather have any windfall on our 2021, 60% earnings than 2022's, 100%. Also after the O&G representatives met with gov last week I'm sure there would have been some form of quid pro quo arrangement, that would favour the industry over coming years, probably hidden from the general public's direct gaze in the form of enhanced tax relief on investment or extension of super-deduction specifically targeted at O&G industry for another few years or so.

aimo

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1505260634786652164?s=20&t=W7GDzVeCNcQ_JXZuSevyMw

Could I also add that our EV/2P Ratio is a red flag to a bull in terms of any potential suitor.

With EV currently ~£620m and our 2P's of £786m based on AA's recent deal,(KIST paid £14.84boe 2P's for TotalEnergies Shetland) results in an EV/2P Ratio of just ~0.79 due to our high cash and equivalents. Particularly as ALL our 2P's derive from producing fields and not just sitting on our books awaiting massive CapEx.

As I've stated before any acquirer will not only be gaining an instant accretive company throwing off buckets loads of cash but as our EV/2P Ratio shows a significant amount of cash which, in effect represents a zero cost transactions and a greatly undervalued company.

aimo & dyor

With average NBP ~204p/therm and Brent ~$95 barrel on average production 30.3kboepd revenue would be around ~£129m, net (post Opex / hedging / Admin) for first 58 days, with an additional ~£10m net (allowing for Rhum costs ~£5m) until 17th on reduced production (15kboepd). Our EoY 2021 cash and equivalents resources reported at £218m plus Dec receivables less Nov / Dec PSA estimated at ~£15m net. With circa £2.6m pday since startup, still based on 30.3kboepd would mean an additional ~£8m

SQZ with cash, equivalents and owed revenue totaling ~£380m would mean that SQZ present Cash to MCap represents ~38% of company held in cash and equivalent atm. Not forgetting, SQZ are DEBT FREE too.

Cash build will continue to be significant as major CapEx (other than recent Rhum repair) not expected until H2.

Add into the mix our 53mmboe 2P reserves alone should be valued currently at anything between ~£800-£1060m would mean an SP fair valuation between 437p - 533p (excluding none producing assets and Tax Losses) Then, when you consider, even at net cash flow of a lowly £1m per day on average production between now and EoY requiring NBP 100p/therm & Brent $75, (Current 240p/therm / $106) that would be an additional ~£290m or 107p/s, you can see real hidden value SQZ represents.

Come results next month, should ACW announce present production now in excess of 35kboepd (of which there is a fair chance) then our current SP will, for sure, appear cheap against today's SP 382p.

We have hit the Crossroads afaic, either use our cash ( accretive acquisition / substantial dividend ) or do the deal, maybe a little too much info for 'Benny' to get his head around but I'm sure others already have !

aimo & dyor

Dartron,

Yet, as it stands we are still undervalued and below fair value imo.

Think a lot of PI's have bailed over the past week only to watch our SP climb and climb. These are uncertain times and so this is reflected in how our SP is reacting ... Not that long ago ~350p would of been a reasonable H2 target for me but given the present macro environment this could run and run. Strange one to value right now (for all the wrong reasons) so don't kick yourself for taking a profit. atb

aimo & dyor

Agree with that, this 'U' turn is due to one person. How can a single person cause so much destruction and death, yet also able to unify world governments and countries in a matter of weeks. A new world order is being formed and Russia are no longer in the circle of trust. aimo

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1504826522565230617/photo/1

Maverick,

Ripley is on my filter for past week or so ...... no idea what rubbish he posts. Hope you took my comment in the jovial context. Yes, many are doing well with Serica, but its been a long old haul... As for 'wowza's', just checked mine, it appears I've come up a little short !!

PS Probably get shot down hijacking 'his' thread ... lol

atb

Link for you :

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1504826522565230617?s=20&t=-MD-iDYNYNLkJsvxKB3zNQ