Member Info for NelsontheDog

Hi Mac
It does seem NN will be involved - however I think it will be more than just NN - I think we will have Japan or another outside EV provider included in the deal - either all working together, or not. Reason I say this is that NN could have gained all the licences and wider agreements through its own links to Russian government - it is an outsider to the region who would want more assurances (and be willing to pay more) to remove some of the political risk in my view.

GLA
NtD

Like an impaired vision person at an orgy that bottom can be elusive to find, it may look like the bottom and feel like the bottom, but is it the ultimate bottom or just one of the many others!

Chester, Iceman

Hopefully you both agree that BTC and indeed the wider crypto space is a new asset class - given the scale it now possesses it is now at a stage that it is being integrated into the existing financial processes. Just like gold its value is based on the sentiment of the people buying and selling it - hence the linkeage.
As much as crypto bulls need warning about the risks, so it is true that there is a warning in regard to the opportunity cost of not investing in this space. As ever, asset allocation and PF management rules can be suited to each investors risk levels but the talk of bubbles is somewhat diminishing for BTC. And whilst the POS crypto's do face regulation, imho they will not all then disappear, the utility in regards to efficiently and safely replacing legacy finance systems and cloud hosting via the big players for apps is too compelling for it to disappear in its entirety.
I know this is a tangent but i think that surmises my view on digital assets - Pendulum has a real chance to be part of this future and we have some of the best seats to watch its land grab play out here in BLU.

GLA
NtD

And Mikie, we own the tailings already - this isnt a future cash flow projection with a theoretical margin - the raw material of the process is already ours - so we already have in RM from $9billion dollars of recoverable metals and we own the tools needed to release it - surely that should be reflected in the share price somewhere?
NtD

Feel free Bluebelly.

Sorry I don’t have the link to the interview.

And whilst I am pondering the morals of our major shareholder. I was terribly moved by his interview where he discussed his partners death and the hope that Tizuana would be honoured by the work of this company.
Surely he didnt mean to "honour" his partner by treating others (us) with such disdain and contempt. I wouldnt put anyone I loveds name to a vehicle that either by design or poor control is riding roughshod over others like this company is doing. If GC has any shred of decency he will do an interview aimed at explaining the issues and how he intends to correct the current scenario. Unfortunately however, I believe he is too embarrassed or full of his own ego to contemplate that he has done us up like kippers.
Sorry rant over
NtD

I am amazed that in a regulated market TILS is able to transact its business whilst effectively disenfranchising its UK shareholders. Lets say it does hot up - what does that mean for me as an out in the cold shareholder - I cant sell and I certainly would not buy more. Incredibly frustrating and the court that agreed to the transfer of TILS to US whilst the Accustem was still in chaos really needs looking at.
GC may not be a crook (yet), but he is in my view based on his actions here, not a man that can be trusted and I fear that doesnt bode well for the company, or, the human shield of hostage shareholders we have become.

CaneToad, on the basis of that top 5 i am pretty sure the fool dont understand it either - I wonder what their criteria for popularity is?

I am in PDL and Pantheon and neither are brimming with BB input to the defree of say EUA or ODX or any of the other hyped up retail shares.

"And once this all ends with a no deal there will need to be a large fundraise, at the new crashed sp, to pay all of these professional services fees"
Who says there wont be a deal?
Given the value and the interest already expressed that would be the lesser result imho. But lets humour your no deal assumption - I dont believe our directors would have put themselves in that position and these firms do work for shares of sale - but you ultimately pay more on that sale. We would still need to potentially raise to gain funds to mine, but more likely to farm out if we dont sell.
So not getting any sale at all is about as logical as positng on a BB for a share you dont hold....oh - I see for you it makes perfect sense!

Great point Ginger Hippo - kind of surmises the whole share investment process. Valuation does not equal price most of the time!

Neocantus,
You are correct in that we cant guarantee a sale, but we can speculate based on the valuation of the metals that are known to be within the territories and the fact that it is a low cost extraction compared to other PGM mines in SA.
Put simply the current market cap is around 1% of the metals value, if that, and as such for me a value backed risk in my own valuation. That is all extrapolated from things I think you wouldn't dispute isnt it?

The speculation on what % of the value of the unmined metals we may receive as a price is then all fun and games. As I have said before, happy with anything over 40p, delighted with a £1, expect £2.50 ish is possible but would still be thrilled, my own Rodders value of £8.88 whereby I will be giddy and then the Zengha level - £35 and I will be inviting the extended family to Christmas with me at my new 5th Avenue apartment.....but 40p happy :)

Yep, up **** creek without a paddle, but dont worry, before you get swept over the waterfall there is a vague bloke called JN who is going to attach an outboard to your canoe...
JN you say, where is he?
Oh, he's here, somewhere - dont worry he'll appear to sort it soon....

Lol!

Thanks Kenny
Good news - something is afoot and there is a definite plan being transacted. Maybe not so good - I am not sure 48000 followers is enough to create a craze - does anyone have a view of others poularity prior to launch?

Not long to go to find out now.

NtD

Northern Shark
THank you for sharing your findings - very much appreciated. I assumed the £17m Nickel writedown is the reason for the adjusted EPS of 2.25p? Is that your view also having done the long hand?

So at 17p, P/E 7.55! Does anyone have a conservative view of the additional profit we will see in the current year? Would be great to get a consensus view of the forward EPS and hence the forward P/E here with copper, and expanded Platinum to come. Way too cheap and that would still not factor in the Elephants and Cobalt that are already lined up to be subsequent periods of growth.

Not selling anywhere near this level and this is now my largest position in my PF - but would like to see us rise to reflect current profits and growth potential.

GLA
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NtD

3 for 3 on the parachain auctions. KR1 staked ETH for 300 days in order to get 66m PLM tokens (the backers of ASTAR. So thats 3 tokens going live on polkadot on December 18th I think and for each we will own a good percentage of the whole market cap.

I am hoping that on launch, each of these tokens will accelerate in price and hopefully raise DOT with it. If that is the case we should see a big spike in our Share price from mid December through January - given we are already at a 30% ish discount to NAV a re-rate of some magnitude could be on its way imho.

And we have two more parachain auctions in the first batch to go!

GLA
NtD

Russiua Invasion Outcome: I think shareholders would lose out big time - 1. whilst asset may not be formally stripped, cashflows can be taken easily through taxes and fines etc. 2. May simply install a new oligarch - forced sale or legally confiscated. 3. Resultant sanctions on Russia would no doubt include this iron ore (where there are other sources) whilst politely ignoring the flow of Russian Gas and Battery/ Electric economy metals.

Fairly salient question though - Russia has an enormous force positioned near the border and our own UK intelligence services say there is intel of a planned Jan/Feb invasion. Russian media "upset" at Ukraine troop buildups in their own country could easily be a starter of justifying a further incursion of Russia into Ukraine.

I took some more profits here a while back - great company, great dividend (despite Swiss tax) but currently very risky imho - not a place to keep your life savings this one.

Well someone is excited about the forthcoming news - tbh i would be buying too if i had funds available - great trade from this price as success in any one of those trials will see us catch some attention stateside and hopefully drive interest in the share.
GLA
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Pleased to see some acknowledgement of the growth but this isnt enough. Its almost 6 months from the results date and at that time we had an eps of 1.81p - thats a p/e of less than 10 at 17p. If you add in the growth - a large part of which is now underway, you would need to factor a forward eps and would see a p/e even lower. This simply doesnt reflect the future cashflows expected here in the slightest. Hopefully with the results now being seen, we will see a slow rise from 17p - I believe that when we post the 6 months interims in Feb, we need to be well into the 20's beforehand.

To be fair, lots can happen to move this price in the meantime, but the underlying valuation by the market does seem stingy.

GLA
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Thank you guys for posting - that seems very positive at least.

As a commercial director of old, the part of the deal that is technically interesting is the part where Astra Zeneca have first right of refusal on the drug. The terms of the mechanism as to how this occurs can be crucial - eg do they have a fixed period to review and offer, or do they have the right to counter offer after any new offer received, timelines of each period etc. I have to be honest, these clauses can often be created overnight and in a spirit of optimism that can result in interpretations at the actual event and there is a potential for this in almost half the deals I was involved with. I wonder if that is the situation in which SGS finds itself - add in NDA's and it becomes difficult to update as it would read as a dispute over contractual terms.

Relieved at the informal notice and hope they manage to get a formal update soon as that would imply the players are at least co-operating to move forward with any disputes, or within a redefined process.

GLA
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I believe that in the settlement deal there is an agreement to not pay the restructured bonds early. Hence the dates of repayment will bear no relation to the net cash position.

As Redwineday posts below, the net cash position is positive and with a continuing exceptional stone process likely, should remain so. As such the net cash position will increase - just because you dont pay off the loan, it doesnt reduce the ability of the company to increase the net cash position and also for the enterprise worth to be increased - and along with that the share price.

There will be debtholders owning equity to clear, but with one or two more positive results cycles the demand for shares will arrive and this will occur - I am optimistic that if we can show good margins and good positive cashflow (and assuming the diamond market is static or improves) we will see a re-rating long before 5 years - i expect within 12 months.
GLA
NtD