Member Info for NelsontheDog

Sorry Gotreal but it doesnt look good - every year they are released in a timeframe and then now they arent. But hey, this is Africa, right, so nobody needs to behave as expected.

Why am I bothered - because any uptrend will be muted by the lack of results and if they are being delayed for good news, where is the good news update - we should be hearing about plenty of it.

£350k win - almost recover the direct payment to Cliff last year there - but that was a year ago - he probably deserves another bonus as a result of this contranct win by now....

Market maybe factoring that into the news.

just back of *** packet ruminating on the numbers - please correct if i have this wrong.

gold in ground- $7.3m oz.

gold $3000 per oz.

total gold in ground value - $21.9bn

assume 50% recovery of gold (conservative)- $10.9bn

margin on recovery assumed at 65% (the gor royalty) - $7.1bn

so $4bn would still factor in a good return via royalty in the claim.

bottom line is the total values are terrifying if you are even slightly on the wrong end of them.

Very enjoyable post Gallmat - hard not to agree with all the miss steps from GoI along the way. I hadn't factored in the massive rise in margin in the past year as gold has risen - all good news.

Personally I think the SoC is going to be big, really big , maybe even starting with $4.... Thus grabbing headlines and further, drawing press to speculate as to the soundness of the case ahead (which as you succinctly point out will not paint GoI well at all). In turn that would scare the living sheet out of some high ups in the GoI Finance Ministry who may pay handsomely to make it go away fast, before someone starts digging around in the stench. Nothing makes governments of the world work faster than the prospect of the tang of embarrassment.

8 weeks is not long to wait to find out.

Hi James

Interesting speculation. My catch point with that would be as fairly big investors why would CH and the BoD support a strategy that aims at a lower offer price - if it was because they had golden tickets attached they would be leaving themselves open to legal attack post takeover. I dont think they would do that - they are well paid, have no cash deadline so can continue and have good prospects without a sneaky deal. Also if an offer is made prior to the results I think it would be viewed with suspicion if results were not also shared - including a revised resource estimate - if not forthcoming I think the market would likely reject.

I think the BoD may be lining things up but at the risk of sounding naive, I dont think it would be with a view to reducing shareholder value in any subsequent events. Rather it may be a partner (possibly the $7.5m well investor) having the opportunity to consider making a further offer to partner that would then be put to us shareholders,

Exciting times I think.

My speculation. CH has some wealth already in that he owns a good chunk of this company. I think if Paradox is proved up he will be looking to gain a lot more wealth (whilst getting paid handsomely) rather than short out for a lesser quick fix. Why settle for $5 to $10m now when he could be looking at $50m in 18 months? with Paradox derisked. I think the man has strong wealth ambition and I am hanging my hat on that thesis here.

Would be interesting. An FD installed by Slater and yet the results are being delayed - I would guess there is tremendous tension here between Slater man wanting to be keen and professional and Leon waiting for the best positive news to be there.

Referencing the IRH deal - this is likely the delay with both Leon and FD up to their necks in final agreement - despite the view given in RNS that it was all written, thats often not the case.

Delayed results do however give off a whiff of chaotic management which I dont think does JLP any favours and focusses attention on JLP - not a good comms strategy at all.

Over and above the profitability and capital required, there is the availability of skilled people and expertise who have the ability to progress these projects. Our history of time slippage would imply this is a scarce resource so for JLP do they get access to an expanded skilled workforce in the deal with IRH or dilute their exisitng most scarce of resources when it comes to expansion? If its the latter I would rather JLP go alone and gain the highest rewards for their management and project effort.

O Pilot-scale leach trials targeting all of the ROM produced at Munkoyo have shown exceptional results and implementation will be accelerated with final designs and capital estimations expected by end of Q1 CY2025.

The above is an excerpt from the Mid January RNS. I am hoping this is going to be a significant uplift in production and in the next update will be referenced as going ahead given positive trials.

Frog,

Apologies for this query if I have missed it but do you have the Roan Copper leach project on that list (and apologies if i am mis-naming or have the wrong element. Personally I think this element could be a rabbit out the hat - low tech, easier roll-out - I havent gone back through RNS's so if anyone has the timeline to hand I would be humbly grateful .

IRH is in my view an embarrassment and will probably be the hill on which Leon gets backing for another few years or whose tenure as CEO ends here if it isnt completed in the near term. Its one thing being a controlling and guarded player in your own back yard, but Slater will be embarrassed if the reason for this not happening is down to a lack of normal business practise and professional comms and processes in the DD phase by JLP - they will be seeking and receiving feedback from IRH. Lawyers. M&A professionals and fund level investors at IRH are not going to change their spots or reduce their requirements to release investments - JLP must secure this deal and to do so Leon is going to have to relinquish information and control on a scale he hasnt done to date.

Hi Frog

I was just countering that in terms of future procurement of material - having the last price in plain view is not always a bad thing. At the size Jubilee is now, the majority of money made will be as a result of their capital, process improvement and processing. The deal making for an edge becomes less of an issue. Rather Jubilee being seen as a fair buyer rather than the prospect of entering the ring to duke out a deal, may actually bring easier progress. Share the spoils rather than having to bludgeon every deal opponent.

Our USP core needs to move to the processes we have rather than the ability to be a shark in everyday deals.

Agree Edzi entirely - take a seat or dont at present.

In terms of the costs of material in the last deal - it is for me a lesser issue but....I understand the point made in terms of competitiveness but actually having a past price as a starting point in a fairly illiquid or new market can be a great comfort to a seller and speed process - the only caveat to that is did you get the right price in the first deal or overpay.

Next seller - tell them the price (that you know you can make good money at) and then flex price for grade, content, other mining and logistic variances - trust gained in market, deals done faster - less JLP management time wasted and reputation in the emerging tailings market is hugely improved for Jubilee.

Northern, I’ve hedged my bets - I have a core position here that I want trend to hold into the future (unless it gets big enough to equal 8% of my holding pf when I will sell back to 3%; but I also have trade money 💰 n here that I will take out on shorter profits.

I like and trust the bod - unless that is shattered i will keep core here - however I agree with papaduke - I suspect m&a will see me bought out in the mid term.

Hi Funds4Future

Fair points. Whilst being objective, who is kidding themselves that this will simply return to pre-war valuations? People are kidding themselves that a large PGM mine will be developed or bought in the current PGM price environment - PGM outlook has radically changed in the last few years. Even if peace can be found, even if it is to an extent that Russia sanctions are lifted, even if that leads to non-Russian companies feeling confident to invest in Russia, then there still isnt a global need for the resources EUA have in the ground. For trading only, the "end game" is a mirage. Im realising losses as I sell but really, those losses were incurred a long time ago.

I got greedy yesterday and waited for 8p+ to sell final tranche today. Market doing its job of moderating my forecasts. Afternoon rally into 7's again today?

I would add one more score;

Aligning to Shareholders - 2/10. He isnt heavily invested - hence doesnt think like us in terms of raises and maintaining existing shareholder value.

I would politely ask people on here to rate Leon and his performance - despite his 1p options offer I would say his performance has been poor, primarily as he seemingly refuses to delegate control or account for performance - a vital thing for a growing business.

My scores;

Shareholder return - 1/10 Dire

Shareholder Communication - 3/10 Poor

Conveying Strategy and direction - 4/10 Sub par - As he is too proud to acknowledge the bumps in road he cant convey the changes occurring in go forward plan refinement.

Progress on Projects and Completion of Growth - 3/10 Multiple delays / unclear milestones.

Building a larger business with resilience - 2/10 - Seat of pants on each issue. No visible development of project skills or professional risk management in projects. Too many glithces implies lack of dilligence at mid management levels.

Deal Making - was 8/10, now 4/10 - IRH deal has been floating for a year - pathetic - communicate the issue, walk away (as I believe he wants to as they will demand accountability) or sign the bloody thing.

Being a chemical engineer and leader to teams - I cant score but apparently this is his sweet spot.

I personally think as a PI so I dont believe he will be shifted but do still see value creation to come - hence staying invested - but dont score on past history, score on how he is doing in a mid sized wanting to grow business as JLP now are.

You can point to whatever you like Comrade Tim,

But it remains clear and blatantly obvious that Russian elections are rigged. You know it, I know it, Everybody Knows it.

Good Morning

Good post led by Dorfan. I would support a move to remove and replace Leon, but other than that I do not propose to coach a management team as to their obligations. If there is a special resolution imv it should be for the removal of Leon - happy to support that.

NtD

It may yet Momoni - just maybe on a different timescale.

Stay strong and good luck out there

NtD

The problem is seemingly we existing holders can take the money we can get right now, or be diluted and get to maybe see the prospects grow but with much less holding. Personally, the choice is now so thin I really dont care. On principle I think I would rather wind up current assets and close this rather than pretend there is a future. If these new potential S/H want to buy some of the off book items - great, otherwise GTF. I think that means I would vote against the plan - however I am unsure how we then propose a winding up.

My once sizeable position is now less than the hourly move in my PF following the CDT farce and I suspect for many of you its the same - hence no real impetus to intervene - I just dont really like to see opportunism succeed when a lot of their initial value creation is by taking most of my already tiny holding.