Member Info for NelsontheDog

I am pleased with the result - it will move us forward very well. But the share price reaction this morning is a sorry sorry reaction - in effect turning Zephyr into the Hotel California - you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!.

I really thought 6p should be on deck today but hopefully if it doesnt rise during today, a future update on route to production here (and at 16-2 as they keep including it) will raise the mood.

I have mixed feelings on buyout / JV at this stage but my guess is any buying chats would need to occur before next steps on a well by well potential JV occur.

Well said Morpheus. I hope to slice some out at double digit but 15p is more like what I would have taken pre 36-2. If it proves up everything I am in no hurry to sell cheap. If we get 36-2 to production and use profits to fund drilling more wells we would reach 15p pretty quick I think. You then add in the Helium play potential and for me a takover after good results needs to be 25p range minimum. But thats just me - the II's will decide.

I may be reading too much into it but he mentions choking back to see how well responds - ie how fast pressure drops and rises. I suspect the well is performing very well in that aspect or else why specifically mention it? Bodes well for a high production rate and also for the impact to size of the resource.

A good week ahead I hope.

Agree deckchair, and the number you referenced is of a size that puts a panicky walk run on a minister of mining as he scurries down the halls of power to be made to account to the Indian chancellor of the exchequer as to what the hell is happening.

$4.8bn. I suspect a range but that’s not as fun.

Not long to find out now.

I totally agree James,

Very happy with CH - particularly the frequent communications policy which instills trust. However my most liked BoD characteristic is they have acted strategically to minimise risk to LTH value on the entity since the start - creating a source of income via non-operated pf, insuring for the risk of bad outcome on the drill. We have experienced a good dose of bad outcomes - those offering a poor view of this BoD forget that in 95% of companies who had the same outcomes, the entity would have expired or the LTH's would have been diluted to almost zero and those holders would be wiped out.

In the interest of balance, I do have concerns on 16-2 drill - it took a long while to admit it was having salt issues and in comparison to recent times there was an uncertainty left hanging - perhaps this reflected the BoD uncertainty at the time.

But the key point is the future - it hasnt been needed yet but the route to production needs clarifying if the well succeeds - I get they need to test results first but the BoD need to bring us LTH's on this journey next. I trust they will do so.

50p?

Fairly relaxed on that RNS - explains why there is delay and does not call out any flags from the work carried out to date.

Kalan,

Your post on what they produce - its a longroad to frustration to take snippets of forecasts of multi-site expectation, on multiple reasserted timeframes from both RNS and "clarifying" interviews and actually try to fathom this. I trust they are doing what they say but outside of that having to work on faith. The JLP forecasting machine is like a candy floss generator - threads and strands magically appear from nowhere and some are attached to the stick - but take your eye of it for a second and whoomph theyre back in the spinning tub - still there but annoyingly not on the stick.

Despite this lack of faith in the forecast I am optimistic that results will now come to the fore and the business will at last stand up and be counted.

NtD

My guess is this will be submitted in advance of the deadline to ensure there aren’t any unforeseen procedural issues. The advantage gained of using full allocated time is not that huge at this stage. So I am guessing final internal reviews next week -MB in London and either issued Thursday 8th for a Friday RNS or if we tip into last week a Tuesday or Wednesday submit with an RNS mid the following day.

I think a Friday RNS would have biggest market impact - usually slower days but I doubt if that is of any interest to the BoD and advisors - unless they want to put pressure on GoI to settle.

Pure musings here while we wait - can’t wait to be into a new phase on this.

I’ve got nothing to counter that view at present. Satoshi Pendulum Twitter accounts both quiet after the early Euro trade qty achievements - I take this to mean they have plateaud.

I dont think a listed company would need to specifically declare the investment if it is small in relation to its other activities - it would be deemed as not being material - $7.5m? isnt that large a sum to a mid size or large producing oil producer.

If CH is true to form we should get a tweet today / this weekend showing flaring. Fingers crossed the strong results to date continue into the next few weeks.

16.95p initial buy for me way back in July 21 is my last one in loss - thought I was bagging a bargain at the time as it had dropped hugely - my subsequent lesson on falling knives has been playing out for 4 years! Hoping the evidence of my lesson is going to get removed from my scorecard later today!

I cant argue against that Oddly - and I suppose thats the point at present.

The potential gold in ground x Gold Price x SoC size x percentage awarded x Miner profit x Win probability gives rise to any and many roll-ups relating to the potential here. As such I am looking forward to the SoC in the next few weeks as at least it removes a number of the big variables - effectively putting some markers into the equation for valuation.

Or maybe a tune from Spandau Ballet - which one though....

Frog,

I dont normally comment on the politic but you have Rachel single handedly doing it while ably helped - pick a narrative - Lone gunman or conspiracy!

Sorry it was just an illustration of cheapness in small cap shares at present rather than a recommendation to buy- in other words it isnt just JLP.

FWIW Prospex is already producing but also expanding - similar one might argue in the cashflow basis as JLP has been therefore and the reason I chose it as an illustration. I dont like to punt too far in the O&G exploration either - burnt once and that was enough to add existing positive cashflow as a selection criteria.

Shuvlin,

Its a buyers market in the small caps at present with the lack of liquidity so I suppose these funds became mistrustful of the risk / delay here and decided to move to other opportunities - which do abound at present. As an example, Prospex Energy - a producing gas entity in Spain and Italy. It already has £9-10m net profits with an extra £1m added this last week and trades on a p/e of circa 2.5x. In the next 12 months it has 11 self funded drills to expand that output (permissions willing). So a "safer" geography and yet still incredibly cheap - plenty of options for those with cash and patience until money reappears in this market. The tariffs and general uncertainty of USA new parameters, are now likely delaying interest rate reductions and increasing uncertainty so the wait for money to come back to risk assets continues a little longer.

Thanks JWalks for posting update. So at that profit per annum we are trading at a p/e of less than 3 without even considering any of the future expansion in production that is on the cards and the growing expectation that there will not be any s/h dilution. Yes price of gas may weaken in the short term but that seems ot be more than priced in as a risk.

Incredibly cheap in theory and incredibly frustrating in reality - we have floated around this price zone for so long now and in defiance of some really positive newsflow.

I remain a holder and occasional buyer - value will out at some point - if not in share price then in the fullness fo time via asset/entity sale or dividend policy. Very frustrating though.

Thank you Gallmat - you and Grok have convinced me in that regard. Appreciate your responses and general views.

I agree the comments - nothing but stable good news there and very welcome. The key takeaway of this RNS for me is that there has been a conscious change in the communications approach - that only happens if there has been discussion on the communication strategy and you would assume its impact on how JLP is perceived. Collectively we have been asking for this to be addressed for about 5 years, however with the exception of a brief change by our last FD, this is the first time we can see management addressing this area and I welcome it wholeheartedly on that basis.