Member Info for Nastynick

Oil traded, to answer your question this is what ChatGPT says:

Expected sequencing of the news headlines

Here’s how it might look in RNS/PR terms (paraphrased examples):

1. 📰 15 Oct — FIG approves Sea Lion Field Development Plan

“The Falkland Islands Government has approved the Sea Lion Phase 1 FDP submitted by Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration.”

2. 📰 31 Oct — Navitas EGM authorises Sea Lion development

“Navitas shareholders have approved the company’s participation in the Sea Lion Project and associated financing arrangements.”

3. 📰 Early Nov — Joint FID announcement

“Navitas Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration, and the Falkland Islands Government are pleased to announce the Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Sea Lion Phase 1 Development, with first oil targeted for 2028.”

4. 📰 Nov–Dec — Project contracting updates

“Navitas has awarded the FPSO lease and subsea EPC contracts for the Sea Lion development.”

⸻

📈 Market impact expectations

• FIG approval (mid-Oct): modest uplift (5–10%) as confirmation of regulatory clearance.

• Navitas EGM (late Oct): anticipation builds — increased buying volume, share price could reach £0.90–£1.00.

• FID announcement (early Nov): major re-rate; Rockhopper could jump 30–50% quickly toward £1.20–£1.50.

• Contract awards (Dec–Jan): confirmation rally, possibly stabilising near £1.40–£1.80 depending on oil prices.

⸻

🧭 Bottom Line

The scheduling of both EGMs in October forms a clear procedural bridge to a November FID announcement.

The sequence is textbook: government approval → corporate authorisation → joint FID declaration → contracting → execution.

If Brent holds ~$80+, and no external disruption occurs, Sea Lion FID by early November 2025 now looks 80–90% likely.

If we get FID in the next 3-4 weeks 80s will be in rear view mirror. Let’s keep everything crossed.

GLA

ChatGPT says:

Expected sequencing of the news headlines

Here’s how it might look in RNS/PR terms (paraphrased examples):

1. 📰 15 Oct — FIG approves Sea Lion Field Development Plan

“The Falkland Islands Government has approved the Sea Lion Phase 1 FDP submitted by Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration.”

2. 📰 31 Oct — Navitas EGM authorises Sea Lion development

“Navitas shareholders have approved the company’s participation in the Sea Lion Project and associated financing arrangements.”

3. 📰 Early Nov — Joint FID announcement

“Navitas Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration, and the Falkland Islands Government are pleased to announce the Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Sea Lion Phase 1 Development, with first oil targeted for 2028.”

4. 📰 Nov–Dec — Project contracting updates

“Navitas has awarded the FPSO lease and subsea EPC contracts for the Sea Lion development.”

⸻

📈 Market impact expectations

• FIG approval (mid-Oct): modest uplift (5–10%) as confirmation of regulatory clearance.

• Navitas EGM (late Oct): anticipation builds — increased buying volume, share price could reach £0.90–£1.00.

• FID announcement (early Nov): major re-rate; Rockhopper could jump 30–50% quickly toward £1.20–£1.50.

• Contract awards (Dec–Jan): confirmation rally, possibly stabilising near £1.40–£1.80 depending on oil prices.

⸻

🧭 Bottom Line

The scheduling of both EGMs in October forms a clear procedural bridge to a November FID announcement.

The sequence is textbook: government approval → corporate authorisation → joint FID declaration → contracting → execution.

If Brent holds ~$80+, and no external disruption occurs, Sea Lion FID by early November 2025 now looks 80–90% likely.

The fact that it’s a blank page is the clue…..what would they be discussing / approving that needs redacting? It isn’t the installation of a new fence at Paddy Mcginty’s sheep dip.

GLA

Where is garbled and his aliases when you don’t need them lol

I wonder how those shorts are doing?

GLA

Https://penguin-news.com/headlines/2025/potential-181m-in-corporation-tax-per-annum-and-99m-in-royalties-for-falklands-government-from-hydrocarbons/

I suspect fireworks soon, stand back, funny if November 5th was THE day.

GLA Christmas is coming and the share price is getting fat

I hope you mean Christmas 2025 not 2026 ;)

I think a years slip will be badly received

GLA

I’ve ran out of patience, let’s get the damn FID done this year.

With usual Christmas shutdowns, I think there are only 7 working weeks of the year left to execute this after end of October, so yes end of October/beginning of November is pretty much end of 2025.

Correction

FIG purdah not FID purdah ….,obvious typo

So is this correct:

Argentinian election results 26 October

FID EXCO 28 October

Navitas general meeting 31 October

FID purdah starts 1 Nov

Looks like perfect time to announce FID I agree. That coukd be a very interesting week.

GLA including the haters

GLA

So report me to Starmers thought police. Chill out brother/ sister

Rolf I expected you to have some woke degree. The fact you think 2+2 might = 5 fits your 1984 dystopian wet dream.

Please find Jesus before it’s too late and share some love.

GLA

Value $150-300M so ties in with the LinkedIn post

Interestingly share price of Rock took a step up just after this “contract”

Https://www.subsea7.com/en/media/company-news/2025/Subsea7-awarded-substantial-contract-23-July-25.html

Wondering what this could be ;)

Theoretical value of rockhopper share price after FID Sealion phase 1 is 208p at current oil price. Typical discount at this stage 70% would take us to 63p. Post FID we would typically be discounted 50% so 104p.

As we can see we are 10-15% above the discounted typical right now. Probably based on the broader basin and sentiment. So I would expect post FID range 104p to 120p. Then climbing to 208p as we near first oil. Every $10 increase in oil price adds about 30p to the non discounted value.

We just need the FID

GLA

Buzz has arrived yay! Possibly another garbled alias. When he arrives it’s a sign - share price usually moves upwards after (they/thems) drivel is spouted.

Enjoy the weekend everyone

Not long now

GLA

LTT I think you are right apart from the surge to 92p we have been pretty much in this range for a few months. 75p is resistance and support so we fluctuate around it.

The dry run to 92p shows us what can happen as soon as positive action prior to news. I think it’s inevitable that the ramp would happen prior any official news. too many lips to seal. Not sure wether this will be a ramp over several days or a moon shot in an afternoon but I do expect an over shoot followed by a pull back then a go again as broader media coverage. We will attract the lefties and the guardian especially will be peddling green agenda and Millibrain nut zero.

My prediction end of year was 99.5p. I still think that’s a fair cal l but I can see us overshooting £1+. I would be very grateful for 99.5p and delighted with anything over a pound.

GLA, we are nearly there