Member Info for nastid

There was an interesting article regarding the shift in mood from investors who want oil companies to give concrete plans/projects to reduce carbon emissions. Shell was the main talking point but given it's size and importance in the industry, I imagine it's a wider general investor shift. Shell offer their own transformer oil range, it seems an easy win to tie up with re-refiners like Hydrodec, to move some way to towards reaching the above goals. I wouldn't assume Hydrodec were talking to the likes of Shell but the idea is less far fetched than it would once have seemed. High prices affect industry change beyond the questions of margin during the different crude cycles. I'd be surprised if they can't find a willing partner, at least for a closed loop supply, to improve matters in some way.

Outlook. I'm sticking a pin on post $90-100 oil, if not by end of 2018, during 2019. The US economy is still going strong without overheating. The global demand picture looks to support prices going into 2019, even at higher valuations. Further to this, Trump seems to have arrived at an accord with China concerning a trade war. Additionally, with Chavez's bus driver winning again, that all but assures Venezuela's output remains poor, and maybe more importantly, the new shipping regs are likely to drive crude prices for some years. Shale will increase output but I'm not sure they have the same spare capacity, as Saudi Arabia, and other producers might already be at near maximum.... besides I think the Saudi's want/need higher prices, to fill the coffers being drained by existing wars, new wars (Iran?), and government programs. The Italian political situation could knock an already wobbly EU but on balance, add uncertainty around Iranian sanctions, and a chance of wider conflicts, there is a bet to be had for prices on aggregate, marching one way.

Gordon's Alive!!

Crude has been a good play so far. $70 WTI was always on the cards, and depending on Trump tomorrow a good level to temporarily reduce... I think any short term weakness will be offset by wider supply/demand dynamics. We had some recent naphthenic base oil price increases from some of the major suppliers, after an extended period of absorbing costs.

Regarding the vintage credits. I don't know the exact price they were achieving but I'm guessing an avg of $3-5 or thereabouts. The market had hit a prolonged rough patch before the crude route, though recently there has been a stark change. Today the cali carbon market, is $15.5/tonne Co2. Up from $10, and as yet below their previous $20+ high mark. I'm not sure on what basis HYR can derive their pricing but it does show that it's on an upward trend. Additionally, there are some moves by Germany and France that have pushed pricing higher. I believe the credits were for 60,000 tonnes/Co2. Using the pricing above as an example only, that's almost $1ml. ... I wonder if they have considered regions like Brazil/South America, for licensing/projects etc. They have high demand, and low domestic supply. Although, again, the problem is not the demand but establishing a reliable feedstock channel. Regarding feedstock, I did read that new legislation coming into force by 2020, will require shipping to switch to low sulphur fuel oils. What lasting impact, if any there will be, I don't know but imagine it would push prices up. Unless the industry upgrades with scrubbers, or uses alternatives, they'll be a stock pile of grades that can't be used.

I wonder if Hydrodec have ever considered crowd funding... An independent brewer crowd funded and received �10 million to build a plant. I imagine the supporters get a discount in beer sales, so wouldn't know how it could apply to Hydrodec. Although it could be put forward that every carbon credit sale due to new funding raised, is put towards charity or some other entity or return. In all honesty, some of the cr*p that gets funded, the Hydrodec proposition of virtually zero waste re-refining, beats them a by a mile.

Taking a page out of John Bercow's book of denials. �I have made a public statement, to which I have nothing to add.�

Agree. The initial headline may have disappointed but to reiterate the operational improvements. We expected margins to continue upwards, or at least I did, and they have done just that, and not by a small amount. This is not only due to an improving crude market, it's also due to Superfine gaining further industry accreditation. The order book is strong, presumably as much to do with Superfine's reputation, as it is the better conditions. The sale of the historic carbon credits, with newer awards likely to achieve improved pricing. The board see opportunities for partnership deals for feedstock later this year. That is by no means concrete but reading between the lines, the last sections suggests they have a number of specific but as yet unrealised plans. My one real concern is that with the company's improving operational level, now purely being held back by feedstock, is that some larger player (or individual) with access to other feedstock channels, ultimately benefits from what is essentially a good business model. With the previous rout in the crude market, I could see the lack of incentive for re-refining but with a functioning market, would others think, as I do, that Hydrodec's IP becomes more attractive.

At the operations level, they look to be doing really very well. None of that matters of course, if they can't find enough to feed the reactors. My hope is that given the operational efficiency, if they do source a deal (closed loop etc) for feedstock, then you get a rapid change in revenue.

The most galling irony, is that the UK business seems to go from strength to strength. The recovery started to happen a bare couple of months after it was sold for �1. Obviously Mr Black has the funds to underpin the expansion but it does stick in ones craw.

Canton had better EBITDA despite the lower volumes. The Australian operation took a hit due to the delay in decommissioning.

It's a competitive arena, and the secondary market prices have kept the feedstock relatively high. It's not just about finding feedstock but also quantities at acceptable spot prices.

delay in the RNS had me thinking that it might disappoint some. To be honest, for me, the the picture is one of what could be a very profitable business, purely held back by feedstock constraints. We previously discussed that the particularly bad weather would have an impact, so it's not a surprise. Things will improve from Q2 but only really enough if they source better feedstock partnership deals. Even with lower volumes, they had better EBITDA than previous years, so technically it cannot be worse than ever. I imagine they must have some savings for not having a full time CEO, something not materially insignificant... imagine $300-500k.

Thanks Gramp's. There's always an RNS after hours but i guess they had a different schedule than the one we thought. Markets seem remarkably sanguine given that Israel is now tacitly targeting Iranian fortified positions, that they deem a threat to their security. A conflagration that draws more players in, is surely coming. The Iranian's can't let that slide, they will use proxies and or asymmetric measures in retaliation but Israel will see this as a direct assault.

Yeah agree. I do think that with a better functioning crude market, this can be inflationary as long as the wheels don't blow off with sky high prices. With more sensible minds after the collapse, hopefully shale will act as a relief valve, thus extending the positive part of the commodity cycle. Take away trade wars and potential hot wars, the global economy is doing pretty well. A healthier crude market doesn't address the problems of sourcing feedstock on the secondary market, but I can't see that the higher prices wouldn't now be providing a better background for leveraging your IP.

pricing. Jumped up on relatively small volume, unless the supply is drying up, or some orders are yet to show up. I thought the last update mentioned an RNS due end of April but maybe that was beginning of May.

Could be but we've had similar just before an RNS. Are the usual crowd ramping on twitter? Buy into the rise on speculation, then sell on RNS, or by it's proper name, the ubiquitous pump and dump. There hasn't been that on here, so maybe this time it's longer term pi's.

good buys this morning, speculating on the upcoming RNS. WTI is taking another shot at $70, despite Trumps intervention. I think I said last year that 2018 might see a sudden uptick in crude prices, there's certainly enough going on in the world, and strength of demand, to ignore said interventions. I read an interesting article about the acceleration of buses and goods vehicles, especially in China, being converted to electric. The knock on effect will be less demand for diesel. I don't know the exact interplay but heavy distillates and the secondary market competition, keep feedstock prices high... I wonder if there were to be a significant drop in diesel use, whether that would ease feedstock availability and therefore prices. Even if so, it's not a short term effect.

I wonder what happened to the possibility that the HYR process could be applied to the Hydraulics market. A long while back now, I believe there was talk of it, probably got sidelined with the Japan, and then the UK projects. With all efforts now going into increasing cash generation on current operations, I imagine there is no flexibility to actively pursue expensive blue sky thinking.

Tried posting yesterday but the site was unreachable my end. Looking back, if I'm not reading it wrong, there has been a differentials for at least 10 years. I'm guessing if it hasn't been used to date, and it's not chemically unsuitable, maybe it's logistically so.