Member Info for nastid

Well personally I don't think the sp put any warning light on.. sp rises, sp falls, someone sells someone buys. I don't think there is anything as yet to read into such activity.

didn't want to say it before but 'Aviva'?

Yes if I recall, Sept was last years date.

Not sure you can inference anything beyond the fact that the MMs are either facilitating a known seller or buyer (or both) or just creating volume with the changing play on sp/spread.

Last interim of the like, was in September. Indeed, you'd think that at some point the good news/progress they have been making, translates into a better picture for the sp! OT Don't know what is wrong with this site lately (past few months) timeouts/service unavailable/slow page loads etc

Price gets dropped on open and then we get a relatively strong buying volume. As people often attribute HYR fortunes purely via crude prices ( although it is far more nuanced than a direct correlation) maybe buyers are following the price recovery. With the kingdom finally cutting imports into the US, the glut might reverse. I believe even with oil seemingly oversupplied, the market is tight at most grades, with fairly strong demand. Hopefully they are getting enough feedstock to service those new reactors, now margins are improving.

The larger trade must've been agreed outside the normal market play

MMs seeing if there are takers for a small price recovery? An outlier small trade taken at a significant premium to the prevailing spread.

Does often seem that there is a buyer that comes along at the same time...

we to assume the 100/250/300k sells that have been going through, are the same familiar seller?

think that establishing the actual viability, i.e accreditation from ACR for Hydrodec operations, and now with a recognised company to sell the credits, might gain interest from other parties/regions. I don't know if it will happen but China is mooted to roll out national Carbon trading (some regions already do). Not withstanding the fraught nature of business dealings there, I imagine the market potential is orders of magnitude larger than current schemes. Surely the tech is ripe for some form of JV/licensing.... but the key, or barrier shall we say, as always, is a market where there is readily available feedstock, and one where they accept that re-refined can be better than virgin products.

Yes but the floor pricing of the credits (in the various markets) is set to be raised in the coming years. As mentioned, currently it is not about the revenue alone, rather the unique selling point. Later, with possible capacity expansion, and higher credit pricing, the money raised does have a potential to increase significantly.

how the spread jumped on the buy side

Indeed it has, think it's got some more legs but like other times, it might not last.

Hmm that might kick off a bigger swing... if it does we'll find out whether Aviva are still skulking around.

Interest ever so slightly picking up... as far as I'm aware, we've had no further Aviva sells for a while, crude gained back some of it's fall, with US reserves seen dropping...whatever peoples motivation, let it continue, and Aviva doesn't appear again.

of buying today I think, put in on the mid

The problem is that we have had no further notification regarding Aviva, even when past volume (if Aviva related) would've required a TR1. Without additional info, we must assume it wasn't Aviva unless they are using a vehicle to circumvent the need for such reporting rules. What about the reverse scenario, rather than a sell price target, the MM/Broker knows there is a buyer willing at a lower price? Who knows but ultimately the simple fact is, if the market sentiment was stronger, we wouldn't be in the position where there are takers for a lower set price. Really not sure there is a consistent buyer or that Aviva is actively selling, which would mean one party at least (the buyer, as it makes no sense for Aviva) is deliberately keeping the fact hidden... in order not to over stimulate the sp!

Good post Something wasn't adding up, I don't know if their platform had a problem and they were adding the trades piecemeal as late trades (much later than rules normally specify) If I recall, we had that large 2ml trade after a day or so of no trades, seems possible they were facilitating a buyer as well.

Not sure I'd agree that it was negative but then I didn't expect them to be in profit outside of positive EBITDA. They've always looked to further their value proposition with strategic deals, that's not anything new. For the market though, yes it needs a lot more.