Member Info for nastid

I don't think it's realistic to factor in having cash to cover an incident like they did in the past. Most aim companies fail not long after such show stoppers, I don't know of any share listed on this index that can be said to have that backup handy. It was lucky that Hydrodec raised cash before the incident, cash I might add, raised whilst they were under a similar debt load, and in public hands. Don't know why you feel that the company must be taken out of public hands, in order to raise cash. There remains uncertainty but there also remains as much room for improvement. They are still only 52-58% Superfine mix, and previously constrained by feedstock whilst crude was very low. So far, every update has been positive, people saw reason to criticise when they weren't generating cash, now when they are, it's all about not being enough. 2017 has played out pretty much we've discussed in the latter parts of 2016, or at least the way I pencilled it in. The company continues on an upward trajectory, lets hope that is enough for all to be successful down the line. Regarding sellers under 3%. Thank you for the clarification. I understood what you meant but unless you know someone is selling, then you could equally say that anyone with under 3%, could be selling any other share.

As to feedstock, the broker and the RNS suggest that the feedstock availability has seen a significant enough improvement in Q3-Q4, to mention the same. With an improving and positive EBITDA, they are heading towards a certain level of debt coverage ratio. I don't have a crystal ball, so can't say whether it's all smoothly up from here. Currently Mr Black gets 8-10%, I would assume that as the company is improving, his best investment strategy would seem to be a renewal of terms. Pulling funding at this juncture, surely would be shooting oneself in the foot?

The last I recall, Aviva was on 7%. Who are those below 3% that you know are selling?

I think that person needs the padded room next to me, in the asylum I booked myself in at 9am.

Canaccord now have a buy target of 3p, with around 2 million profit for the full year. as in previous discussions, the main barrier is accessing enough feedstock to fulfil the strong demand. There are indications, as in Q3, that as crude prices have stabilised, feedstock is being unlocked in greater quantity. The take or pay contract in Australia should prove pretty useful. Basically means a customer either takes the product, or pays a penalty, probably at an agreed lower rate. These kind of contracts are common but it is a marker of confidence ,by the customer/industry, in Hydrodec's operations in Australia.

I do believe they play the price, certainly more than on other aim shares I've monitored, it might be more than one MM but yes sometimes the transactions are all over the place. We consistently get delayed orders, corrections etc etc.

Not necessarily, we had a gap up this morning, and it looks like a number of people, either manually or otherwise, triggered their sell, and then the late comers, accepted a ridiculous bid price. Simplistically speaking, the sp can't be worth less than before based on that RNS. We finally broke 2p, and I'm hoping we get on the radar of more long termers.

still hoping that it's just the MM playing the price, and those selling for a very small quick buck this morning, with a different looking sp going forward.

Forgive my equally ropey grammar check. "When the doors open at 9am. I want to beat"

When doors open at 9am. I wont to beat the rush as there seem plenty of crazy people, especially the one who accepted 1.66, a big discount on the prevailing price. Maybe that was from one ropey MM, and they want sellers to build stock.

6 million pegged as the full year statutory loss, they are probably going to beat that by a million, with a reduction of over 50% from 2016. Still a long way to go but I've posted before that with the enlarged capacity, it only takes small movements in margin to have large full year impacts. Finally, the ratio of Superfine to baseoil is reaching or maybe exceeding, levels pre-reconstruction. Selling Superfine has never been a problem, finding enough feedstock to service said sales, can be a problem. The RNS mentions addressing that, so will be interested for more details.

No transactions, which itself is different to other RNS, no one rushing to sell. Might get increased activity once the news percolates out.

For the first time in maybe 4 years, I'm going to say that report gives me confidence for the longer term ahead, and raises my own set level of expectation for the future. A fantastic report delivered in understated tones. If the sp does what it has always done before, i.e the quick buck gets out, and the sp drops, I will book myself into the nearest loony farm. Surely now there is enough to move the sp beyond this undervalued range. The cash issue that was greatly discussed, and proceeded a long fall of the sp, hasn't materialised for more than a year now, so I can't see what would hold the sp back, unless we still have an unfinished seller. Based on this RNS, I'd say it was a poor time to sell.

Not withstanding the expectations for the latest RNS, I've posted before that there's a current disconnect between today's sp and in past years. Before the reconstruction, with a similar debt load, smaller capacity reactors, high cost base, and yet to hit a month with positive EBITDA, the sp ranged from 5-8p. Today, we have higher output, newer 500hr oil certified reactors and a much lower cost base. Even accounting for an enlarged share issue, I see fair value as being 3-4p on current progress. The broker target is 4p. The difference is that we've had a consistent seller that pushed the price to these levels, and so far, there hasn't been enough to push past the familiar pattern that the MMs are currently happy making their commission on. Another factor being the reconnect with their customer base and increasing the more lucrative Superfine vs baseoil ratio. Any other factors that could be discussed, have existed since Hydrodec started operating. I dial-in my expectations when it comes to RNS, as I've seen how the oil market operates for many years but I certainly see the sp as currently undervalued

Been keeping my eye out for this news, as it's been on the to do list for some while. Renewal coming at any time is great news but when a company may want to actively seek to leverage their tech, JVs/licensing etc, I'd say it's vital. If they can do the same for the EU and Japan, this would be really good. Eventually Japan needs to regulate to clear their toxic stockpiles of PCB contaminated transformer oil, having the patent for another 20 years may come in handy when they do.

Hoping to break the familiar pattern that has seen quick money in and out around potential announcements periods. A solid RNS of improving margins and increasing Superfine mix, will go some way towards that.

Not to make light of all those effected by the storm but it's often the way that economies eventually get a boost from a business upsurge during recovery phases. I also imagine a very large number of transformers need replacing and or recommissioning, and therefore the transformer oil that goes with it.

I believe last year's was in Sept, and the also the year before that, so we have a while yet to wait.

were some buy orders triggered ( 1m + multiple 250k) after that sell came through at a discount? I assume that's the only connection.

As far as supply and demand, same as for paraffinic baseoils, the picture for naphthenic market, is a strong/tight one. Lots of buying interest for rerefined products, now and months ahead, lets hope this backdrop continues to improve margins for Hydrodec.