Member Info for nastid

Hmm that's a very interesting thought. Priced lower than No2 oil (which stays stubbornly high), another benchmark relevant to Hydrodec. Chemically speaking WCS has high bitumen, meaning higher concentrations of cycloparaffin/TAN, like naphthenic baseoil. It is mixed with additives/synths to get it to flow down the pipe, what they are, I'm not familiar with. In short, I don't really know whether it can be applied to HYR process. The Canadian oil business is having some longer term problems, which I guess is why there is a price differential, at least for WCS (rather than Canadian Sweet). Certainly would be advantageous if it could form an alternate feedstock.

Within touching distance, unless there is a major change, I'm pretty sure this technical will break sooner rather than later. We're now waiting for the possible disruption caused by the renewal or not, of the Iranian deal. If sanctions restart, the price will spike up, with converse being true, although I still think there is enough geopolitical/economic data that says 2018 will have firm crude prices. The years following are less clear. At current levels you may find shale drillers look to lock in future prices with hedges, and ramp up production. Hopefully they will have learned some measured restraint. Trade wars, high levels of debt, and worsening conditions in Germany may start to dampen global economic activity. I believe prices for naphthenic have been fairly steady, with a good demand/supply balance but we could do with another round of price increases.

We're heading towards $70 WTI, even so it might take a good while before that becomes the average but I wonder how this will translate medium term to Hydrodec. As I've said before, it's not as straightforward as saying, higher crude automatically equates to higher margins, not least of which is feedstock constraints but longer periods of higher crude, tends to step change buying/investment. Certainly a better case for the international licensing model. Although we haven't heard anything regarding whether slicker oil is carrying forward the idea of a new UK re-refining plant... I'd find it unlikely if it does ever happen, that Hydrodec would not be called upon to assist in some manner, given their expertise.

Certainly less chatter now the share isn't being ramped to death. I for one am glad, as posts with useful info or discourse, don't quickly disappear under an avalanche of posts, essentially repeating the same words or pastes of RNS from years gone by.

Not much of a response on the forums for a man that did a great deal for the company. Wish him the very best and a speedy recovery for the person in question. Sometimes when they mention resigning due to family reasons, it's code for something else but in this case, they explicitly say sudden illness of a close family member. I'm sure if he had stayed he would've continued the good work but i hate to say this. You need an accountant running things during the turn around, once complete, the paradigm shifts.

For some time now, Hydrodec has had a element that ramps the hell out of it, normally during the run up to announcements, some know the precise timing of the RNS, and yet it isn't posted on the calendar. The rampers espouse all manner of unfounded pronouncements, plastered with superlatives, pushing unduly high expectations, creating an ideal opportunity to reverse the sp. The MMs must love the predictability, and are happy to oblige with clever pricing. You also often see large trades against the trend literally just before the news release, so as above, some know the precise timing. I'm not saying there is anything untoward, only that it is a tad bit annoying. It's sad but I knew the chances were that the sp would react as it did, just as it has done a number of times after each RNS, no matter how good the content. This behaviour coincides with the over blown ramping, which ends up destroying the underlying progress, when the horde obediently follows the setup. There should be a sticky on every thread. Discount any ramping period, and then be pleasantly surprised if it turns out the be true.

I think the point Harry is making, is that before Lego sold, he only wrote extremely positive posts. Since he sold, like anyone, he reinforces the decision, by swinging far in the opposite direction on all subsequent posts. I too was a little disappointed in the sudden flip, not that lego had sold, or had a difference of opinion, but the seemingly over night conversion. Then again we are entitled to our opinion but it is also good to get the context of said opinions. Slightly better day today. Some US suppliers have posted price increases for early feb orders and demand remains healthy. If 2018 continues as it started, i.e 60% Superfine sales ratio, with an upward trend and the continued sale of carbon credits etc, as long as they are covering debt, and the feedstock position remains the same, then 2018 has to be better than 2017. All things being equal, the sp 'should' then be at a higher average than last year. I make no predictions but seems logical. Year end 2017, I personally had a 3p Jan target, as well as WTI hitting $60. Oil was kind enough to hit that, HYR did but sadly didn't stick around.

would be helpful but unlikely in the near term, is the banning of waste oil burning, e.g. ends up as bunker fuel etc, or in the many small burners across the country. It wont be a policy shift but there should still be enough of a general trend away from that. The export across the border exacerbates things, with the particularly cold weather also adding to the situation. I'm hoping this should ease off, and there is no reason why they can't get another closed loop deal.

I can't see what the fuss is all about. The trading update was pretty much exactly what we were expecting. Talk of licensing deals were just that, talk. Doesn't mean there isn't going to be one, and I imagine that it's an ongoing priority. For the first time in it's history, the company announces positive EBITDA, with a strong start to 2018.... 60% higher value transformer sales mix ratio, compared to 52% full year 2017. Lego again mentions it's only EBITDA but we all knew that, because we've discussed it here a number of times, and there will still be an accounting loss. What's important, is whether there is debt coverage. This time of the year oil trading is traditionally difficult and probably more so with the extreme cold creating greater competition for used feedstock. It's clear that they need to unlock more feedstock, on the flip side, this means there is a significant level of untapped revenue, given that the reactors can output around 36-40 million litres/y. The MMs got some good volume, triggered a fair amount of stop losses etc but ultimately the progression has continued.

The forum is to speak freely but at the same time, you know your post has no value. You are trolling, which obviously speaks volumes about you as a person.

Ever since I started following Hydrodec, I've internally & externally debated the idea of licensing, and lack thereof. Similar processes existed but they were nowhere near as clean and efficient as Hydrodec's, so wondered why there weren't more licensing opportunities, as well as in the industry in general. Over the years as I gained more insight into the business, the major barriers I took to be a combination of industry inertia, and frankly the scepticism around the idea that you can make money re-refining, or recycling in general. I believe the inertia has long since dissipated, with the remaining hurdle to be cleared, namely the question of profitability. With an announcement expected, hopefully, of a historic first, i.e a full year of positive EBITDA, that barrier also drops a way, it then becomes a question of scale. Whether or not a job advert means there is a specific prospect, or simply facilitating the ambition they've always held, to diversify their revenue base, I don't know but a milestone will have been turned.

anyone mentioned Santa and Rally in the same sentence? Which of course dooms any further rise... been holding that ubiquitous festive quote, since the start of December.

the 9 cancelled trades. Do C trades show up when certain orders are partially filled, i.e the portion that did not get executed. Or is it not, small scale, similar tactics that high frequency traders employ, to spoof/flood the market with orders always destined to be cancelled.

they like that trading pattern, wonder how long they'll milk that one for.

Yeah, just posted along those lines.Someone making hay when the price moves back up, and the spread suddenly also becomes favourable...

Looks like a pattern. Not sure the underlying reason. My guess is a)The MMs balance the exposure on their books, setting up price for selling and sp drops. b) simply a way to trigger renewed buying volume. c) facilitating the accumulation of stock for one reason or another, not related to risk.

You're very welcome. Even though the turnaround seemed to come quickly after the sale, the risks would've remained throughout the year. Also, even though they started generating cash literally 3 months later, the year ended down around 200k. In comparison, better than the multi million loss, the year before. A kicker really, because we'd be looking at a completely different picture for the company.

Yeah, this is something I'm not clear on. Reading the fine print, I think the 10% profit share, only relates to those generated from a future UK re-refining project, not the existing fuel oil operation.

has been a bone of contention since the company was formed. Initially when they were a smaller entity they had attractive receive/supply (maybe closed loop) deals, which pushed margins to something like $1/litre. I've posted previously that the secondary oil market, isn't as straightforward as virgin oil. Competition can be high, including routes that see the oil go for burning. Although there isn't strict legislation to divert this, I suspect that the practice will naturally decline. If they can get a few more closed loop deals, this will go a long way to establish a better balance. Regarding the UK project (phase 1,2). That wasn't about fixing the feedstock channel for Hydrodec as a whole, it was to feed the group 1/2 lubricant re-refining plant. It was a strategy to prevent the kind of feedstock constraints, that we are currently seeing in the US. Unfortunately it couldn't have come at a worse time. Personally, after raising the money, I wanted them to build a transformer plant first, since that was their expertise, not the greater risk of pushing into lubes. Also at first, I was concerned about offloading cash, when the project had very little flesh on it. Still, it was, and remains a lucrative idea, shame the timing killed it, especially when Slickers, the re branded business is doing ok. It was sold in March 2016 for �1 but started generating cash again in June 2016, certainly helped by the restructuring under Hydrodec. A question of 3 months, if that isn't bad luck, I don't know what is.

to see buyers coming in on any weakness, even with some jiggery pokery, I guess the MMs need to try and get their stock for the next move.