Member Info for nastid

As of Sept, 41% is not in public hands. Don't know how many are treasury shares, and thus do not have voting rights. There could be a threshold that is set out for such matters but with Aviva gone, if it's not another investor then purely on institutionals, the votes are pretty close. That's not counting doesn't the pi, director holders, or those that may have a holding since going to the market. Of course we don't know how anyone would vote anyway, and it's all speculation.

Haha, no sorry necessary, I just finished my other comment, and then saw your updated one.

Just rechecked again. Isn't this governed by the Takeover Code? When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained). When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least. etc But yes, you must of course be right, that the price can be rejected, unless i guess, the offeror had 50% (or some specific % needed, set out via memorandum etc)... or the other main holders, thought it was a great price.

I shall defer to your understanding, it's certainly better!

The premium in this case, is the high of the previous 12 months. So any offer only needs to be a very cheap (not so premium) 2.7ish / share. Unless the sp rises above that on speculation etc, then it's the cheap 2.7p price. I for one hope that this it is pure rumour, and would be much better, long term, for another large investor, such as My Bulmer.

I'm not read up on the 30% rule, not sure if it's in play here, (and I don't think it qualifies for a waiver) but it requires a holder gaining over 30%, to make an offer for all the stock. The price paid is only the previous 12 month high (2.7), and thus would prevent the pi benefiting from the future progress. The code is there to protect minority shareholders, in this case it wouldn't be great. It doesn't relate to those who already had over 30% at the time the company went to the market. Did you mean the rumour is that Mr Black purchased the 50-60 million from Aviva? Seems less likely given that the bod awarded the grant of options.

We will have to agree to disagree, personally I'll still be keeping my opinion, since I have actually been following this daily since before 2005, and therefore the graph with respect, doesn't show me a fait accompli. If you're interpretation is that it does, and you see correlation, that's just as fine but I equate each of those wider sp movements on the chart, with the real updates/data/wider macro forces etc, at the time it happened, as I remember them.

but you must be seeing something I don't, and I've been following it since before 2005. The incident kicked off the drop from 15p, not Aviva, and not crude. The other times, I could just as easily give you macro reasons for the movement, and different company updates/developments on the ground at the time. That overlay example shows as much divergence as tracking to me but that's not to say I'm right and you're wrong, I just prefer other non chart indicators in this instance. In any case, because crude also follows the wider macro forces, yes indeed, there must be some correlation, as Hydrodec is not a silo.

much of a 'close' tracking correlation, or one so course that it doesn't hold much intrinsic value in and of itself, when we have other factors driving the sp. The majority of the fall in HYR and it's root cause, and a similar fall in crude, had very little to do with crude, as we all know. Obviously the big long term falls or rises, which often have other macro forces behind them, impact Hydrodec, as they do others. It certainly sped-up or prolonged the fall, and came at the worse time for the UK operation. It would be better not to say that margins and feedstock are incredible. Margins are up but it's a incremental progress. Margins do not suddenly shoot up, because crude is up. I've tried to explain the dynamics around it, so people are clear on expectations.

Just checked, it is for the UK. "The transfer of the UK licence and basic engineering package from CEP" So in theory*, I imagine that if they so wished, and had the funds to do so, they could collaborate to develop the tech for other regions. With the costs and risks involved (even a small test reactor would be costly), I'm not sure if it's even a footnote in any long term plan but who knows. *I'm not clear on the exact CEP collaboration, or the IP specifics. Initially it was for licensing the CEP wiped film process, and also to create a technological platform to incorporate Hydrodec's proven tech. Mr Black holds the rights to license CEP tech in the UK, with the engineering package to build a working plant. The question is, does that include adding the Hydrodec tech, which I believe in a lab environment, proved it's feasibility for group 1,2 applications. The advantages to collaborating with CEP, was reduced development and build costs, rather than starting from scratch. Additionally, I think their partner in AUS, is using the CEP tech in one of their plants. The beauty, was that they could've developed a CEP package, improved by Hydrodec's process, and which could then have been 'bolted' onto existing CEP based plants. Unless the Hydrodec tech is integrated from the get go (with the advantages to recovery rate/quality etc) in any such endeavour, I would think future expansion would be less risky sticking to transformer oil...providing they find locations with good feedstock channels.

I can't recall exactly but I think Mr Black now holds the IP for converting the technology to paraffinic based lubes etc. Could be worldwide or just Europe but since the UK deal, we haven't had any further info. The last development was around group 2, with a possibility for the higher value group 3.

I just want to make a general point regarding margins. Although a higher crude price is certainly better than the low prices (and volatility) we've had, there isn't always a simple correlation, that equates to a matching increase in margins. The after/secondary market price for used oil, isn't as straight forward as picking a baseoil type, and then finding current and forward pricing of contracts for said type. I think the closest correlation or indicator in our case, is or was, WTI against no2 bunker fuel. Not having definitive sources for feedstock complicates things, competition is high and sometimes you are stuck with the local spot market, that may vary widely. With increased capacity, you do get the benefit of better bargaining power, and are less dependant on spot pricing. As mentioned before, the higher crude value might unlock additional sources of feedstock, making a better run going into 2018. Prior to the poor crude market and rebuild period, it was often common for Hydrodec to announce, from time to time, a sizeable deal to receive and or supply one of the well known industry players. For a long while I've been waiting for something like that again. We recently had such news in AUS and then the US. It tells me a) the market is functioning again, and b) so is Hydrodec. Re-engagment with their customer base being in full swing mode.

@topscot Welcome. It's swings and roundabouts, once you make the decision, unless you were very lucky or got in before any move, there will always be a better entry but you didn't pay the high of the day.

Haha, yes, I recall a good exit point at 50p! but it was a different company and much smaller share base back then. The renewed enthusiasm is good but I always prefer the, 'under play and over deliver approach'. Personally I see an easier time getting to 3p (I make no prediction as to timing) and bouncing around that level. If my assumptions for the crude market play out in 2018, and they have more recently these past months, I can see turning points at 4-5-6p. The likelihood of the higher levels obviously being far more dependant on the rate of continued progress in 2018. This is without consideration of major announcements, such as a deal for licensing, going to the market for funding growth, feedstock procurement remaining challenging

It should happen, the price target was pre-determined, so once that is over, then we might get movement. Certainly on recent buying volume from the pi crowd, should be enough to move it once there is no large seller in the game.

with all things being equal, and a belief in universal fairness, we should damn well see an sp that doesn't drop lower on every bit of good news, and in fact, keeps the gains it makes....

So instead of, doubt they'll be finished by year end, I actually meant, they'll be finished weeks end!

Yes, the fund could have a direct selling plan or be adjusting against other exposure from time to time, either way, I doubt it has anything to do with being honourable but rather more with prudence. So it's like the normal options market, still says to me they are confident of current progress. My personal estimate at the start of the year was an accounting loss of 6 million - with the headway they are making, that looks to be dropping fairly quickly, to around $5m. Having Aviva in the background is a real pain in the proverbial, normally, any company progressing as Hydrodec has done, would see a progression in the sp. That's why it was important to clear up that Aviva, indeed still held as per April, because there hadn't been any further notification, and therefore it is still a major influence on the current sp. I guess they wont be finished by year end but there was another large chunk today.... as someone rightly said, you can only sell it once. As to hype, I'm never one to go for hype, the market does look 6 month to a year ahead, and as long as there is debt coverage, and EBITDA continues to grow, there must come a point when the sp responds.

Yep, slowly, very slowly... that's why talk that they have cleared out, couldn't be right, as they must notify, whether or not they are still in the process of selling intentions.

It does seem that indeed they hadn't crossed another trigger threshold until now.