RE: Jim Podcast5 Jun 2023 19:09
Hi yoxallc,
I don't really want to turn this into a Tesla discussion, but to briefly address your points, I'm highly sceptical about the future of hydrogen, and GM are betting more heavily on BEVs than hydrogen so Toyota is pretty much out on its own . In the US alone $1T will need to be spent to build out a charging infrastructure, something which alreadfy exists for electricity (most charging happens in homes). Did you see the degree to which the Biden administration is subsidising US battery production via the Inflation Reduction Act? Is there anything in the IRA to stimulate hydrogen deployment?Also, hydrogen cars work with electric motors, but they're much less efficient than battery EVs in terms , similar to ICE engines in fact .
"With battery-powered e-cars, only eight percent of the energy is lost during transport before the electricity is stored in the batteries of the vehicles. When the electrical energy used to drive the electric motor is converted, another 18 percent is lost. This gives the battery-operated electric car an efficiency level of between 70 to 80 percent, depending on the model.
With the hydrogen-powered electric car, the losses are significantly greater: 45 percent of the energy is already lost during the production of hydrogen through electrolysis. Of this remaining 55 percent of the original energy, another 55 percent is lost when hydrogen is converted into electricity in the vehicle. This means that the hydrogen-powered electric car only achieves an efficiency of between 25 to 35 percent, depending on the model. For the sake of completeness: when alternative fuels are burned, the efficiency is even worse: only 10 to 20 percent overall efficiency."
BEVs have now hit 10% of global car sales and have reached the vertical part of their "S" curve adoption. What are the sales numbers for hydrogen cars now and will they be able to displace BEV sales growth in the next 10 years? I see no evidence of that.
The Model Y was the highest selling vehicle gloablly in Q1, not just for EVs, but all cars. I think you are very much mistaken in your belief that German car makers are winning market share from Tesla.
BEV profit margins for 2022: Tesla 28%, Toyota -17%, GM -22%, Daimler -23%, BMW -35%, and Jim Mellon claims Tesla is going to go bankrupt, with almost no debt and $22B of cash on their balance sheet?