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I think we as individual investors have enormous advantages over institutions like BlackRock. They are always judged on short-term returns, usually one year, so don't have the luxury of a long-term view. They're also judged on their Sharpe Ratio, so tend to avoid volatile stocks and won't tolerate large drawdowns, the kind that inevitably happen with high-growth companies. Seeing a stock you hold drop >70% is never fun, but it has happened to all the most successful companies and I think it's the price you pay if you want to make life-changing returns. Trading in and out sounds attractive, but it rarely works. Retail investors can also choose to spend as much time as we want researching specific companies. Institutions and analysts need to know about a lot of different stocks and don't have that luxury. How many institutional investors have a deep knowledge of Agronomics' individual holdings? Being able to do that builds conviction, something BlackRock clearly didn't have, given they sold a big piece of their position near the low.

Yes, entirely possible though a bit embarassing for them if they do buy back in, given it was in no small part their indiscriminate selling that crashed the price into the 3s. But my question is who is selling to trade with the buyer? How many large holders are left with positions to sell? If a market maker is selling stock it doesn't own it will either have to hedge (against what?) or buy to cover, so find another seller. I would not like to be in that position.

Big up days on significantly higher volume is definitely a big positive and is probably even a precondition for a significant rally. I can't help wondering who is on the other side of these big buys. Blackrock is long gone and I'm not aware of any other big institutional investors. A few large retail holders may have decided to sell, but I doubt that anyone who's been invested for more than a few months and held when the stock was crashing would be prepared to sell now, while the price is still so far below the NAV. So is the market maker being taken short by the buyer(s)? Seems unlikely they would want that given there's no good way of hedging that position. All that to say I'm enjoying the move higher, but am surprised it hasn't been larger given the big increase in volume and illiquidity of the market.

"Agronomics is showing signs of a solid breakout at the top of its trading channel, with a target around 10.7p expected by the end of next month or possibly sooner."

He's probably looking for it to touch the Upper Bollinger Band on a monthly basis, which is currently at 10.71p. If that happens, I think it will ride up the band like it did in late 2020/early 2021 when we saw a move from 4.85 to 41.50.

Good catch on the big buy this morning Stop! Volume was heavy yesterday, but today was 10X average, so there's no doubt we are seeing accumulation. It doesn't really bother me whether it's one or several institutions, or Jim Mellon (let's see if there's an RNS in the next couple of days), but it seems to me that institutional money has largely exited, so that would mean there's going to be a whole lot of buying pressure if the tide has turned and it wants back in.

Https://solarfoods.com/solar-foods-partners-with-sensapure-flavors-to-showcase-soleins-suitability-for-endless-flavour-combinations/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9GGgl-CDn3-2lVSXqf5n8pJJ_qCY7TMIZANcRE9LQtI3fta9dwgWe6ls8S7JH1OVixVP6SAhsaQ7TiUsaYUQf1JEtW4_-DZ-Ijn_k17k31ya8rR3Q&_hsmi=370261503&utm_content=370261503&utm_source=hs_email

Almost 5% higher on more than 5X average volume doesn't suggest we get a pullback to me. I don't have the data for ANIC, but I don know that for the majority of stocks on the Nasdaq more than 90% of the gains happen on less than 4% of the time. Good luck trying to time that.

Not sure if any of our portfolio companies will benefit from this initiative. Still good to see that the focus is on precision fermentation where we have a majority of investments. Simplifying and accelerating the regulatory framework via the Biotech Act would be another positive:

"One of the Commission’s proposed actions is to support the scale-up and uptake of advanced fermentation via public-private partnerships, and the expansion of startups in this area by organising an annual conference on these technologies to connect stakeholders and promote knowledge exchange.

The Commission pointed to a recent report by McKinsey, which estimated the global fermentation market to be worth up to $150B by 2050, accounting for 4% of global protein production. Many startups in the industry use agricultural byproducts as feedstocks, helping curb food waste and lower emissions and social costs."

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/eu-life-sciences-strategy-fermentation-novel-food-regulation-funding/

Given that most of the porfolio are still in the earlier seed rounds, I'd also be surprised if many IPO within 3 years. That said, raising capital in the private markets has become more challenging as VC focus has moved almost exclusively to AI, so if they struggle to find private capital, some of the companies may look to the public markets instead, and though I still think that's unlikely, Solar Foods has already gone public, though it did so without issuing new shares via its technical listing.

I can see why Bluehorseshoe thinks Jim Mellon will move on to the next big thing in a few years, as he's already pivoted away from longevity investing. That said, I don't see that happening this time. On reading Moo's Law and listening to interviews with him, it's clear that animal welfare has become a deep passion for him and his wife, perhaps even their life calling. He's no longer young and impressionable, so I would be shocked if some new shiny investment object attracts his attention. He touches on this in the following 1-month old interview. I was also interested to hear him say that he is restricted to buying shares at certain times, suggesting he may do so again in the future!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn4pBYlTfSY

Finally, Agronomics is a little more than just a closed-end VC fund. I don't know the details, but from what he says, it was instrumental in founding three companies: Liberation Bio (Labs), Meatly and Clean Food Group. Founders are usually in it for the long haul and don't typically walk away at the IPO. In sum, I think this is more than just an investment, a means of making money for him, I believe him when he says he wants to play a part in ending animal suffering, and that isn't going to happen in 3 years.

Yes, my lowest buy was 3.85p, though my cost basis is 9.36, so I'm still underwater. It's now my second largest individual stock position after Tesla. I keep telling myself I now have enough, but I'm still tempted to buy more. If Lib Bio hadn't been able to raise the capital needed to complete their facility, I would be worried, but they did, and I think that put a floor under the stock, which bottomed around the same time. The next 12-18 months should be an exciting time as more of the companies reach or get closer to commercialisation.

Meatly has already reduced the cost of the medium it uses by 100 times and it estimates it will be able to achieve another 100X reduction when its reached industrial scale. That kind of cost reduction transforms an industry. We are not just talking about cost parity, but well below. Difficult to say how far we will be into that transformation in 10 years, but even if we are still in the very early stages the share price will be at a substantial multiple to where it is today. I'll be disappointed by a 10X move and happy with a 50X increase. Of the portfolio companies, I'm actually most excited about those where Agronomics has the biggest stakes (Lib Bio 38%, Onego Bio 16%, Meatly 25%, Clean Food Group 30%) and so will benefit the most from any eventual success.

Almost all the discussion here is about food as nutricion. What about food as medicine? How big is the pharmaceutical industry? The annual revenue for Ozempic, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist developed by Novo Nordisk is $14B. This isn't a "natural" molecule, but peptides can be fermented in bioreactors just like their larger protein cousins. I see this as a another massive new market for Lib Bio and other manufacturers. Here's an interesting article that explores this in more depth:

"Shiru, a startup deploying AI to aid in ingredient discovery, is inviting food companies to use its platform to explore ingredients that naturally stimulate production of GLP-1, a gut hormone associated with appetite regulation.

The new GLP-1 Innovation Alliance, an industry consortium that invites “Fortune 500 CPG companies and emerging brands to collaborate as equals” will use Shiru’s platform to identify natural proteins and peptides that bind to GLP-1 receptors and other receptors associated with appetite regulation and metabolism."

https://agfundernews.com/shiru-invites-brands-to-harness-its-ai-platform-to-explore-natural-glp-1-activation-the-opportunity-is-immense

I didn't really answer your question about where I think the share price will be in 10 years. I have no exact idea, but I'm fairly confident it will be a lot higher. The key is to have a large enough initial stake to create life-changing wealth and to keep the fear/greed emotions in check along the way, because i also think it will continue to be a rollercoaster of a ride.

@Stop, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I agree with you on All G, but think you are being too conservative on LB. A company this early in its growth tragectory will trade for a much higher multiple than 10X. The CEO has said a couple of times they will become profitable next year, but we don't know exactly how much profit their plant will generate when at full capacity. That said, the ROIC is going to be high and they shouldn't have any problem replicating their richmond plant in other countries, so I think a 10X multiple of total funding ($98m) or $980m could be justified.

I don't think the pool of institutional capital willing to invest in start-ups in a nascent industry is particularly deep in the UK, or Europe. I doesn't help that liquidity on AIM is limited. I think if ANIC was trading on an American exchange the share price would be a lot higher, but that just means we as retail investors have the potential to benefit more than institutional investors.

10.59p is currently the Upper Bollinger Band on the monthly chart and is my initial objective. What catalysts do you think will take it to 15p in 6 months? All G releasing its first commercial lactoferrin product before year end? Meatly raising additional funds and expanding production of its chicken petfood? Liberation Bioindustries completing work on its Richmond plant and announcing new customers? Clean Food Group regulatory approval in the UK before year-end? California Cultured regulatory approval in the US before year-end? Jim Mellon buying more stock?

All G Foods CSO was already confident at the end of last year that they'd reached low enough production costs for lactoferrin to the point where large customers were expressing interest: "There are four major market segments to target with bovine lactoferrin, which All G expresses in genetically engineered strains of Pichia yeast, he says. “Obviously, the biggest one is infant formula, but that’s not what we’re starting with because the regulatory approval is more complicated, but the others are adult nutrition, nutraceuticals, and cosmetics and personal care applications.”

According to Raynes, who was dairy team leader at CSIRO, “We’ve had conversations with big players and they said, if you can give us this price, we will start putting it in yogurts and other mainstream applications, which they just can’t at the moment with current prices. And we’re going to be able to achieve prices where they say, Okay, we could really open the market for lactoferrin.” Not clear to me whether the latest collaboration with FaBA has decreased unit costs for lactoferrin further or whether it relates to casein, which is a bigger market than lactoferrin, but has lower margins, or both?

According to the Greenqueen article "All G has already been in talks with multiple contract manufacturing facilities to scale up production both in the US and the EU. Its CTO, Guillaume Barbier, believes FaBA’s optimised bioprocess will allow the firm to accelerate the development of its products." Good news for Liberation Bioindustries, which according to the October 2024 article in agfunder, is the US manufacturer. I love it when we see mutually beneficial synergies between Agronomics portfolio companies! Perhaps they are working on more important things, but I find it frustrating that Agronomics doesn't keep investors informed by releasing an RNS on this kind of news.

https://agfundernews.com/australian-precision-fermentation-startup-all-g-plans-bovine-lactoferrin-launch-in-2025

The article isn't very clear. My best guess is that All G will use the bioprocess developed by FABA to scale up their milk proteins in a more cost efficient way. The agreement is part of a four-year, $4 million project, with FaBA contributing funding and expertise, supported by $50 million in federal investment and $110 million from industry and research participants. FaBA’s model allows industry partners like All G Foods to retain IP arising from projects royalty-free, suggesting that All G Foods may not be paying for the IP itself but is likely contributing to the project through co-investment or in-kind support, as is typical in FaBA’s dollar-matched funding structure. I see All G as the big beneficiary here.

Https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/university-of-queensland-faba-precision-fermentation-dairy-all-g/

It makes as much sense as arguments that degrowth is a solution to ecology when the evidence is all around us that richer countries have the luxury of implementing envirnmental policies. It also annoys me that there is always a suggestion that proteins made in bioreactors are less natural and possibly less healthy. Who in their right mind thinks the conditions in which animals are raised and slaughtered in industrial agriculture are somehow natural and healthy?

His tone continues to be very optimistic, and while he doesn't get too specific he mentions that the companies in the portfolio are seeing demand increase by between 50% and 100%. They are able to sell everything that they can produce. Gulp. I don't know too many sectors outside of AI/data centres and compute growing that fast, and that's *before* reaching price parity and regulatory approval. Is there any reason why the cost of production won't continue to fall after price parity has been reached? Bottom line, the fundamentals of the industry, in terms of time to commercialisation and price competitiveness have never been better, yet the stock is trading closer to all-time lows than all-time highs despite having doubled since late 2024.

From the CellAgri Weekly Newsletter. It's a pity they were approved before BlueNalu, but I suppose this paves the way for regulatory approval of our seafood investment:

"San Francisco-based Wildtype has achieved a landmark milestone by securing the first regulatory approval for cultivated seafood in the United States, with its cell-cultured salmon now commercially available at Portland's acclaimed Kann restaurant.

This breakthrough represents the most significant advancement for alternative seafood to date, establishing the first clear regulatory pathway for cultivated fish products.

While Good Meat and Upside Foods previously received approval for cultivated chicken, and Mission Barns secured FDA clearance for cultivated pork fat earlier this year, Wildtype uniquely benefits from streamlined FDA-only oversight that enabled immediate market launch, unlike Mission Barns which still awaits USDA authorization.

Wildtype has emerged as a well-capitalized leader in cultivated seafood, securing over $120 million in funding from notable investors including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jeff Bezos, and Robert Downey Jr. The company previously established a pilot facility in San Francisco capable of producing up to 200,000 pounds annually.

Wildtype's coho salmon utilizes mesenchymal cells harvested from Pacific salmon fry, cultivated in suspension bioreactors under conditions mimicking natural fish environments. The production process eliminates costly media components like insulin and growth factors through innovative formulation optimization, while post-harvest thermal processing ensures product safety and consistency.

The regulatory pathway proved notably streamlined compared to terrestrial alternatives, with the FDA maintaining sole jurisdiction over cultivated seafood, unlike the dual FDA-USDA oversight required for chicken and beef products.

This distinction enabled Wildtype's immediate market launch. The three-year approval process involved eight amendments as Wildtype refined its manufacturing protocols, establishing a clear regulatory template for future cultivated seafood applications.

Currently available on Thursday evenings at Kann, the salmon will expand to daily service in July before launching at four additional restaurants over the coming months. The sushi-grade product targets premium applications, addressing both sustainability concerns and supply chain vulnerabilities in conventional seafood markets.

This approval signals a critical inflection point for cellular agriculture, demonstrating that cultivated seafood can navigate regulatory frameworks while establishing precedent for future products.

As other cultivated seafood companies including BlueNalu and Umami Bioworks advance their development programs, Wildtype's successful pathway may accelerate the broader commercialization of alternative seafood technologies and reinvigorate industry confidence across cellular agriculture applications."

I think if anything, he's quite understated. If their Richmond factory becomes EBITDA profitable in the first year of operation, how long is it going to take them to pay back the cost? The ROIC is going to be high, which will mean they'll have no problem raising new capital to do it again. Here's what I wrote a few days ago on listening to the interview:

- They expect to announce two or three more customer deals before year end.

- The completion of the Richmond plant and start of production is a key milestone. Many potential customers aren't satisfied with theories and price projections and lab-based production, they want to see production at scale before signing contracts. That will now begin to happen. The same can be said for investors. Most of the financing so far has been equity, but once the plant is beginning to produce revenue and they can cut and paste to build another plant, raising capital should be easier and they will also have access to a wider pool, including project finance and debt.

- He reiterated that the Richmond plant will be profitable before the end of 2026.

- They are unlikely to build a facility in China to protect IP. I hadn't really thought there was anything particularly valuable here, but obviously I was wrong.

Every time I hear Mark Warner speak, I want to buy more ANIC stock.