Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Here's another article that covers some of the same ground: https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/meatly-cultivated-lab-grown-meat-pet-food-uk-regulatory-approval/
Hi Agricore, thanks for the correction, I was indeed confusing pounds and pence. Why aren't you including bank deposits in your estimation of current assets? If you add the ÂŁ10m of bank deposits to the ÂŁ18,093,984 of cash and cash equivalents you get to ÂŁ28,093,984.
Hi Agricore,
"Yet we also know the NAV as at 30/09/23 is reported as 16.48p. (0.46p a share LESS than 30/06)"
For me, Agronomics reported a NAV of ÂŁ15.80 as of 30 June 23. That would mean an increase in the NAV of 68p. Here's the press release: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ANIC/net-asset-value-calculation-at-30-june-2023/16066212
ANIC shares made a low of ÂŁ8.90 on 23/10/23 and made a higher low on 22/12/23 at ÂŁ9.35. The stock hit a high of ÂŁ11 on 22/11/23 and the high so far today is ÂŁ11.50. So a higher low and now a higher high. We could finally be seeing a change in trend.
"RNS 03/11/23 states the NAV per share as at 30/09/23 is 16.48p/share. And as at 30/06 was 15.80p"
Changes in the NAV happen when portfolio companies raise new capital at valuations that differ from the last time they raised capital. Between June and September of last year, Meatable raised ÂŁ30m, which means Agronomics stake increased by ÂŁ3.9m, and Clean Food Group raised ÂŁ2.3m, resulting in an unrealised gain to Agronomics of ÂŁ5.37m. This accounts for the jump in NAV between quarterly calculations in June and September.
I dislike the terms of the Consultancy Agreement, where Shellbay is entitled to 15% of any increase in the NAV, especially because Shellbay is controlled by Jim Mellon, Chairman of the Board. It's difficult to say whether the NAV is correct as none of the companies Agronomics has invested in are publicly traded. The NAV gets adjusted to reflect the current valuation of an asset when a new funding round happens. That said, if its largest investment, Liberation Labs really will begin generating $25m in FCF a year from 2025 onwards, then I think the shares are significantly undervalued.
Agronomics has a little more than ÂŁ18m of cash on the balance sheet, it has ÂŁ170m in total assets, most of which is made up of its portfolio investments. It raised capital in the past by issuing equity not debt.
Lots of interesting comments in this article:
"Liberation Labs’ pricing structure “isn’t that different than the CMOS out there as far as cost to use our facility per month,” he said. “The difference is, we’re designed to make twice the product. Most of the numbers we’ve seen when we’ve quoted larger clients are minimum 30-40% lower than they’re seeing on their existing all-in manufacturing costs.
...
Demand exceeds supply
With more than 12 months to go before the facility is operational, Liberation Labs has “way more interest than the capacity of the facility,” claimed Warner. “We’re confident we’re going to be able to get a credible binding offtake for a baseload on the facility that will support our fundraising and initial operation.”
https://agfundernews.com/liberation-labs-bags-25m-usda-backed-loan-to-fund-us-biomanufacturing-hub-what-matters-is-whether-the-capacity-is-fit-for-purpose
I agree that there will need to be quite a bit of education about lab meat not being a form of "Frankenfood". I remember a few years back there was a lot of concern about GMOs, especially soy, and there seems to be less these days. Will we see a similar trend?
The bigger question for me is whether Agronomics can be successful if lab meat fails to gain traction. I think it will be easier for companies like Onego Bio, Every and Formo to become successful as their products (dairy and eggs) are largely used as ingredients in other foods. The hurdle for milk and dairy is low as protein represents just 3% of total content. These are also large markets, with global demand at $8b and $3b for dairy products and eggs respectively. Then there is Liberation Labs...
In another interview, this time with Nick Searl at Zeus Capital, Anthony Chow states that Liberation Labs will be generating about $25m in FCF when it begins production in Q1 25. He estimates that Agronomics' stake will represent about 1/3 of the company at that time (clearly anticipating further funding rounds) which he also says "pretty much underwrites the entire market cap of Agronomics as it currently stands."
https://zeuscapital.co.uk/exclusives/9906909192/
Here's an alternative link: https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/654b751359ca99144baccab8/agronomics-q3-results/
That link doesn't work, so for anyone interested, the interview can be found on Research Tree.
he discusses the share price and market environment. expects new funding rounds by liberation labs and onego bio will help the valuation. opex of ÂŁ1m per year means they have a comfortable runway of at least 10 years. would like to raise more capital to add to investements, but won't do so with the share price trading at such a steep discount:
https://*********************/media/agronomics-q3-results-17-11-2023/id/19365/bade8f5a-0e6a-4a49-9d82-427af0f39223
For some reason, this has been reported by the LSE or Agronomics yet:
"DOUGLAS, ISLE OF MAN / ACCESSWIRE / November 16, 2023 / Agronomics
ANIC
, a leading listed company focused on the field of cellular agriculture, is pleased to announce that portfolio company Solar Foods Oy ("Solar Foods") has raised €8 million in a Series B financing round carried out through the Finnish-based investment organizer Springvest Oyj, with participation from existing investors including Happiness Capital. The financing from this Series B round will be used for continued building and ramping up production of their single cell protein SoleinTM...
Agronomics has invested, in aggregate, €6 million in Solar Foods, being a €3 million investment in Solar Foods Series A and €3 million in the form of a pre-Series B Convertible Promissory Note ("CPN"). Following the close of this Series B round, the CPN has converted into Series B shares. Agronomics now holds an equity stake in Solar Foods of 6.4% on a fully diluted basis. Subject to audit, Agronomics will now carry this position forward at a book value of €13.3 million, representing an IRR of 35% and a MOIC of 2.2x."
https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/23/11/ac35820667/agronomics-limited-announces-solar-foods-completes-eur8m-series-b-financing
I don't think this has been posted here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6LVWuekPcY
I remember back in the mid 1990s when the consensus view was that nobody was going to buy anything on the internet, a virtual guarantee of credit card fraud. 30 years later and I know almost no one who hasn't bought something on the internet. Meat and fish, produced using precision fermentation will be cheaper and healthier than that which we currently consume because it won't contain antibiotics or mercury. Why would there be "widespread resitance" to that?
Https://twitter.com/AgronomicsLtd/status/1667124520820375552?s=20"
Progress! Site prep has begun at the location of Liberation Labs flagship #biomanufacturing plant in Richmond, #Indiana, which will have a commercial-scale capacity of 600,000 liters of #precisionfermentation and associated DSP.
Stay tuned for the official #groundbreaking in a few weeks!"
Why bother if the technology can't scale :-)
I see negative comments by Ricardo San Martin, but the rest of the article is more nuanced. As Tony Seba has stated: "Cost curves are like gravity." and they march ineluctably lower. Why would anyone think this won't happen with the cost of producing protein using precision fermentation or cell cultures? How many times have we seen "experts" like Ricardo San Martin say "Moore's Law is about to end", or "We're going to run out of oil", or "Battery costs in EVs will never be competive with ICE"? For a different perspective:
https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture
Hi yoxallc,
I don't really want to turn this into a Tesla discussion, but to briefly address your points, I'm highly sceptical about the future of hydrogen, and GM are betting more heavily on BEVs than hydrogen so Toyota is pretty much out on its own . In the US alone $1T will need to be spent to build out a charging infrastructure, something which alreadfy exists for electricity (most charging happens in homes). Did you see the degree to which the Biden administration is subsidising US battery production via the Inflation Reduction Act? Is there anything in the IRA to stimulate hydrogen deployment?Also, hydrogen cars work with electric motors, but they're much less efficient than battery EVs in terms , similar to ICE engines in fact .
"With battery-powered e-cars, only eight percent of the energy is lost during transport before the electricity is stored in the batteries of the vehicles. When the electrical energy used to drive the electric motor is converted, another 18 percent is lost. This gives the battery-operated electric car an efficiency level of between 70 to 80 percent, depending on the model.
With the hydrogen-powered electric car, the losses are significantly greater: 45 percent of the energy is already lost during the production of hydrogen through electrolysis. Of this remaining 55 percent of the original energy, another 55 percent is lost when hydrogen is converted into electricity in the vehicle. This means that the hydrogen-powered electric car only achieves an efficiency of between 25 to 35 percent, depending on the model. For the sake of completeness: when alternative fuels are burned, the efficiency is even worse: only 10 to 20 percent overall efficiency."
BEVs have now hit 10% of global car sales and have reached the vertical part of their "S" curve adoption. What are the sales numbers for hydrogen cars now and will they be able to displace BEV sales growth in the next 10 years? I see no evidence of that.
The Model Y was the highest selling vehicle gloablly in Q1, not just for EVs, but all cars. I think you are very much mistaken in your belief that German car makers are winning market share from Tesla.
BEV profit margins for 2022: Tesla 28%, Toyota -17%, GM -22%, Daimler -23%, BMW -35%, and Jim Mellon claims Tesla is going to go bankrupt, with almost no debt and $22B of cash on their balance sheet?
I'm long ANIC because I'm excited about the possibilities of precision fermentation, but I do worry about the investing acumen of Jim Mellon, despite his reputation. Case in point, in the interview he recommends buying Toyota and or GM and shorting Tesla. This reminds me of the value managers who shorted Amazon and bought Barnes and Noble, shorted Netflix and bought Blockbuster and thought Nokia and not Apple would continue to dominate the cell phone market.