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@Stop, yes, you're probably right, at least in the short to medium term. I'm less certain about what the industry will look like as it matures, and would refer you to the second part of Solar Foods business model:

"In some regions or product categories, we may not manufacture or sell Solein directly but aim to license our technology to an industrial partner.

Such a partner would be responsible for the construction and operation of the Solein plant and would have the right to sell Solein in certain regions or product categories. In return, we would receive a license fee based on a general percentage of the licensee’s total net sales. Potential partners include, for example, companies supplying raw materials to the food industry."

Onego Bio have indicated they intent to bring manufacturing in-house, when they scale production, so I don't see them being a long-term customer for Liberation Labs, Stop. It would be nice to see synergies among portfolio companies, but I'm not worried about demand for Liberation Labs services and it will mean higher margins for Onego if they do it themselves.

I'm also excited about Solar Foods and the potential for Solein to eat into the market for whey powder. Although not quite as big a market as egg whites, whey is still around $10B and growing. Management gave a presentation of 2024 results and future plans a few days ago. They sound confident they will be able to reach price parity and then below with Factory 02: https://solarfoods.videosync.fi/q4-2024

(less processed) are cheaper per gram until supply shocks hit.

Supply Chain Edge: Tr-OVA sidesteps hens entirely. No feed price spikes, no bird flu, no cage-free retrofits—just glucose ($0.40-$0.60/kg), electricity ($0.05-$0.15/kWh), and bioreactors. A 10,000 L reactor at 80 g/L yields 800 kg/batch; scale that to 10 reactors, and you’re at 1,600 kg/day—matching a 100,000-hen farm without the chaos.

Market Fit: Egg whites are 54% ovalbumin, so Tr-OVA directly replaces the dominant protein. At 50-80 g/L, Onego Bio could target industrial users (baking, protein bars) hit hardest by egg shortages or price jumps, offering $8-$12/kg as a stable alternative to $10-$15/kg egg white powder during disruptions.

Economic Competitiveness Now

Her optimism suggests Onego Bio’s titers might already exceed the 2 g/L from 2023 studies—50 g/L is my “attainable” guess, but 80 g/L or more could be in sight by 2025 with their tech. Here’s the verdict:

At 50 g/L: Tr-OVA’s $4.20-$6/kg lands near the low end of egg white powder ($5-10/kg). It’s competitive during supply shocks (e.g., avian flu pushing egg prices to $12-$15/kg) or in premium markets (sustainable, vegan-certified products). Break-even needs $7-$9/kg sales, doable with a “clean label” pitch.

At 80 g/L: $4.20-$5/kg undercuts conventional egg whites consistently, even at $5-$6/kg norms. This could force egg producers to lower margins or lose share, especially if Onego scales to millions of liters of fermentation capacity.

Why She’s Bullish

The broken supply chain is her ace: every flu outbreak, feed hike, or regulation tightens the egg market’s noose, while Tr-OVA’s costs drop with scale and renewable energy (e.g., Finland’s hydropower grid). A $300 billion market with 5-10% annual disruptions is a $15-$30 billion opening—Onego Bio only needs a fraction of that to thrive. At 80 g/L, they’re not just competitive—they’re poised to redefine egg whites entirely.

What’s your take—do you see Tr-OVA as a full egg white swap or a niche player at first? Her vision’s bold, and that broken chain’s her fuel!"

I was also curious about how realistic her titer numbers were, here's the quote from the article: “Trichoderma is a fantastic platform because it allows significantly higher production levels compared to other organisms. While 100-120g/l is fully possible, 40-50g/l makes strong business sense. Nobody has done this with ovalbumin before, but the system architecture remains more or less the same regardless of the end product.”

I also wanted to dig a bit deeper into the total size of the egg market, because her $300B number is for the total market, not just egg whites. Here's Grok: "The $300 Billion Egg Market Context

The global egg market is massive—1.2 trillion eggs produced annually, with a value reflecting both consumer (table eggs) and industrial (processed ingredients) demand. Egg whites, as ~60% of an egg’s volume, are a big driver, especially in processed forms (liquid, powder) for baking, protein supplements, and more. My earlier $5 billion was just the egg white powder niche, but the full egg white market (liquid + dried) could easily be $50-100 billion within that $300 billion total, depending on how you slice it. The rest includes whole eggs and yolks, with applications from mayonnaise to pharma.

"Supply Chain is Badly Broken"

The CEO’s diagnosis of a broken egg supply chain is spot-on and amplifies Tr-OVA’s potential. Here’s why she’s likely optimistic:

Volatility: Egg prices swing wildly—avian flu outbreaks in 2022-2023 spiked U.S. prices 50-100% (e.g., $2.50/dozen to $5+), and 2024 saw lingering effects with 10-15 million birds culled. In 2025, ongoing risks (disease, climate impacts on feed) keep supply shaky.

Feed Costs: Feed (corn, soy) accounts for 60-70% of egg production costs. Global supply chain disruptions—Ukraine war, drought—pushed corn prices to $6-$8/bushel in 2023-2024, and while they’ve eased slightly by 2025, they’re still volatile compared to pre-2020 norms.

Regulation: Cage-free mandates (e.g., EU by 2027, California already in effect) raise costs 20-30%—a dozen cage-free eggs might cost $1.20-$1.50 to produce vs. $0.70-$1.00 for conventional. Retail prices reflect this: $3-$5/dozen vs. $2-$3.

Sustainability: Eggs have a high environmental footprint—land, water, and 5-6 kg CO2e/dozen. Consumer and regulatory pressure (e.g., EU Green Deal) favors low-impact alternatives.

Labor and Logistics: Labor shortages and transport costs (fuel up 20% since 2021) strain the chain, especially for perishable eggs.

A "badly broken" supply chain means higher baseline costs (say, $0.06-$0.12/g of egg white protein) and unreliable supply—perfect conditions for a disruptor like Onego Bio.

Tr-OVA at 50-80 g/L Revisited

With the egg market at $300 billion and a fragile supply chain, let’s reassess Tr-OVA competitiveness:

Cost Recap: At 50-80 g/L, I estimated $4.20-$8.30/kg for Tr-OVA powder—$0.0042-$0.0083/g of protein. Chicken egg white powder, at $5-10/kg ($0.005-$0.010/g), is

This is a couple of months old, but quite short and worth watching. OnegoBio represents 6.7% of ANIC's NAV. Given the high volatility of egg prices, and the seemingly endless problems with bird flu, I think they have a good chance of gaining a decent share of the B2B market (pasta, biscuits, cakes etc). According to the CEO, that's a $300B market. So I think ANIC's stake in Onego alone has the potential to be worth more than its current market cap. Assuming of course that they execute. One of the reasons I'm comfortable holding ANIC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUwsEiDCaGg

It's interesting to see that this recent strength has been happening at the same time as most other areas of the market, especially technology, have been getting hit. The inverse was true when ANIC was collapsing and most indexes were trading up to new highs. I'm not sure if we can talk about an inverse correlation as much as no correlation. ANIC seems to dance to its own tune. That in itself is a valuable property for an asset, as it increases the diversification of a porfolio and should lower risk and increase risk adjusted returns. This, in addition to the fact there is the potential for a lot of future growth and a valuation which is still well below fair value as measured against the NAV. Portfolio managers take note.

RWT2 writes: "i'm pretty certain the share price move is entirely based on momentum off the back of simon thompson recommendation in investors chronicle. this share has large retail following and his recommendations often have this effect. "

Daily volume since the low has been regularly above 20M, 5X the average. That seems very high for just retail punters. I think we are seeing some institutional buying.

"Company Updates: There are no recent significant announcements or news releases from Agronomics that would explain a sudden share price increase."

There were no significant announcements or news releases to explain the collapse from around 14p in April last year, to the low around 3.67p in late January. So if that drop was excessive, couldn't this just be the market adjusting to a more reasonable price, one that's a little closer to the value of the portfolio companies as expressed by the NAV?

Thanks for the update! The big question for me remains how LL will finance their expansion plans, especially as they struggled to close the last capital raise. GivenNeom participated in the most recent round, I'd expect it to be a part, perhaps a big part of funding the Middle Eastern facility. Not sure about Australia. The other important element is expectations that the Richmond facility will start generating operating cash flow after 6 months of operations, as per Mark Warner. So at what point will LL be able to fund future expansion from internal operations and cease relying on external capital? That will be when this company really takes off.

Hi BigMaxer, you write: "Regarding NAV, ANIC values holdings on last Funding Round Valuation, but those are/seem old and stale."

Liberation Labs raised capital 2 weeks ago. Onego Bio did its Series A in July 2024. Galy raised new capital in September 2024, Formo in January 2025 and Mosa Meat raised in April 2024. These don't seem old or stale to me, especially when you consider ANIC's largest contributor to the NAV, Liberation Labs, raised capital this month.

Meatly raised new capital in July and November of last year. I don't believe Agronomics participated in either of those rounds. That's one of the big problems that trading so far below the NAV has created. They won't issue more shares at such low prices, so our positions in the stakes we do hold are getting diluted as companies raise new capital.

"Meatly is 38.7% so a big one, a very credible step" Lower on a fully diluted basis: "Agronomics has invested £1.2 million into Meatly since inception, which is currently carried at £4.5 million. This position accounts for approximately 2.9% of Agronomics' last stated Net Asset Value (31/12/22024). Agronomics has an equity ownership in Meatly of 25.54% on a fully diluted basis."

https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/agriculture/agronomics-limited-announces-meatly-launches-first-cultivated-meat-dog-treat-981189

There is no indication given for the share price or company valuation for the Mosa Meat raise on crowcube. People are thowing money at it blind. The biggest bump we have got in the share price recently is when people on X uncovered a bullish post by presumed killer Luigi Mangione. Investors don't seem to be behaving rationally.

We knew about the delay in raising capital and the start of production because there was no news until today on the fund raise, so I think this disappointment has already been priced in. I was worried that something much worse was afoot, that they weren't going to be able to raise and would have to find a buyer for the asset at pennies on the dollar. Should have listened to StopAnimalAgri and had more belief in the process! The most important thing is that there's now a clear path to the start of production and letters of interest for over 200% of capacity for the first five years. This for me has SUBSTANTIALLY disrisked Agronomics as an investment.

Oh the irony of the timing after my post yesterday! Huge news! https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ANIC/liberation-labs-closes-us-50-5-million-fundraise/16876025

Trump also won 58% of the vote in Indiana. Along with their Repulican senator, It's clearly a red state. Introducing legislation that will inhibit growth in jobs for people that just elected you is unlikely IMO. I'm more concerned about the long delay in raising the Series A.

@StopAnimalAgri I can understand why belief in the process at Liberation Labs is beginning to waver. They were supposed to have completed their Series A by the end of 2023, and we are still waiting. Mark Warner told Axos back in October of that year that they were lining up $75m which include VC money, yet they have only raised $12.m since then, including $10m from strategic investor Agronomics, and Warner has said more recently that LL is not suited to VC investors. The long delay in such a key portfolio name is a concern. At least to me.

:) I'm sure Jim Mellon plans on serving up pints of Solein in shoddy hotels in Manchester and Birmingham next time he does a round of investor presentations.

This isn't a pivot. I'm fairly sure sports nutrition was always the first big application they had in mind.

Https://x.com/PepMangione/status/1790412503857705302