Member Info for nanopayments

I agree that it's a good summary for new investors, but feel the website and a number of other presentations have already made the case. I just feel hungry for a regular source of information on progress at the portfolio companies, espeically now as many of them are at a critical pre-commercial early-scale stage. None of them, except Solar Foods, are obliged to provide this as they are all private companies, and ANIC used to be much better at this, either through Anthony Chow or via the Capital Markets section of the website.

I think you have to be optimistic about the future to invest in startups. What are the potential returns here? Any attempt to do a present value calculation using discounted cashflows is just guesswork, so I just look at the total addressable market and try to estimate the probability of success. Exciting though it is in its own right, it's a pity that AI and AI investments have pretty much stolen the limelight and cast a shadow over agtech and novel proteins which should be capturing more investor interest.

I was a little disappointed. I don't need my hand holding, but instead of another rehash of the investment thesis and summary of the portfolio companies, I would have prefered to hear more on their progress and "next milestones" other than the one-liner in this powerpoint. It just looks like they've taken a slide deck presentation for an investor conference and used it as their update. The Capital Markets videos on the Agronomics website provide really useful information on their investments. It's a pity these haven't been continued. There also looks to be a material error in the book value of their largest holding, which is still be referred to a Liberation Labs: Cost: £21.9m; Book Value: £3m. Sloppy.

Apart from that, I agree with you that 7p looks very undervalued.

"California Culture is one of several startups working on cell-based chocolate, including Israel’s Celleste Bio and Kokomodo, Switzerland’s Food Brewer.

These companies are aiming to address an urgent problem. Producing dark chocolate already emits more greenhouse gases than every other food except beef, while each bar of chocolate requires 1,700 litres of water on average. Add to that the vast amount of deforestation linked to the cocoa industry, thanks to increasing demand and the widespread use of palm oil."

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/california-cultured-cell-based-cocoa-chocolate-scale-up/

More competitors than I thought. The other thing that surprised me was how much water is need to produce a chocolate bar. 1,700 litres is a staggering large and inefficient amount!

I used to think a shortage of capital and therefore an inability to scale to commercially viable/competitive size was the only major risk factor, but seeing what Meatly have done on such a limited budget has given me second thoughts. Is there any reason to think that the cost of bioreactors and the medium won't continue to decline to levels where the end product can be sold below where equivalent products using traditional methods sell for? What does a world look like where meat and fish and egg whites and chocolate made using precision fermentation or cell agritech sell for significantly lower prices? There's still a chance that the companies Agronomics has invested in lose out to competitors. That may be the case in some sectors, but I doubt it will be true in all, and the market opportunity is potentially so big, that there will probably be room for a small number of competitors.

Data from various studies, like those by the National Venture Capital Association and historical VC fund analyses, suggest that about 20-25% of startups in a VC portfolio go bust, while another 40-50% return minimal or no profits. Only 10-20% of investments typically yield significant returns. It's still too early to say for sure, but I've been surprised by how few of ANIC's portfolio companies have failed and how many look like they could produce significant returns.

I think it took them longer than expected to raise the $50.5m in January to be able to pay to complete the build, but Yellowsky is right about slipped timelines in general, as regulatory approval has been much slower than expected for companies like BlueNalu. If all now goes well, we will see some of our bigger holdings scale and bring their first products to market in 2026/7. It feels like a turning point. The stock also made and all-time low in January of this year and has been trending higher since then. The market generally makes it difficult to make money and usually moves before a change in fundamentals becomes apparent, so I think the stock will move higher before the regulatory and commercial milestones are reached. If it doesn't and the portofolio companies continue to make progress, that would just be a good opportunity to profit from a situation where the market isn't pricing in future events.

Chris Camillo is a successful investor. He turned $84,000 into $42 million in 15 years, an average annual return of 77%. He did this by anticipating new trends in technology - mobile computing, the cloud etc and making concentrated bets. Those who anticipated AI and invested in Nvidia and Palantir have done extraordinarily well. I think Clean Food and PF will start to attract smart/early investor attention in the next few months.

Has the timeline slipped? They've talked about completing the facility by the end of this year in recent press releases. In a press release on the 7th of May, they said commercial production would begin in 2026:

"RICHMOND, Ind. (May 7, 2025) Liberation Labs today announced a manufacturing partnership with Dutch ingredients startup Vivici. Liberation Labs will produce Vivici's flagship ingredient, ViviteinTM BLG, at its Richmond, Indiana facility when commercial production begins in 2026."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ANIC/liberation-labs-announce-manufacturing-partnership/17025442

"Toronto, Ontario – May 30, 2025 – TheNewswire - CULT Food Science Corp. (“CULT” or the “Company”) (CSE: CULT) (OTC: CULTF) (FRA: LN00), a disruptive food technology investment platform focused on making investments to pioneer the commercialization of lab grown meat and cellular agriculture to reshape the global food industry, congratulates California Cultured on a significant milestone in scaling sustainable chocolate and coffee production.

Key Takeaways:

California Cultured successfully transitioned from lab-scale shake flask experiments to precision-controlled bioreactor fermentation.

The scale-up was executed at Pow.Bio’s FDA-registered, AI-enabled continuous fermentation facility in Alameda, California.

This milestone validates the economic and technical feasibility of commercial-scale, cell-cultured cocoa production.

The project focused on media optimization, oxygen transfer rates, and pH control to enhance cell growth and metabolite production.

California Cultured is now positioned to advance toward process validation, downstream processing, and sensory trials.

California Cultured recently announced it has successfully completed the transition from benchtop experimentation to large-scale, food-grade biomanufacturing of cell-cultured cocoa, in collaboration with Pow.Bio, a leader in intelligent fermentation technology. The achievement represents a key inflection point for the company and for the broader category of sustainable chocolate alternatives.

Working out of Pow.Bio’s newly commissioned 25,000 sq. ft. facility—featuring clean room capabilities, dual-chamber continuous fermentation systems, and real-time AI-based process control—California Cultured optimized its cocoa fermentation process for commercial volumes. Core development goals included boosting metabolic efficiency, increasing flavonoid and lipid synthesis, and lowering cost per kilogram to enable scalable, cost-effective production.

This collaboration not only validates California Cultured’s ability to produce consistent, clean, cell-cultured cocoa at scale, but also lays the foundation for future innovations, including continuous fermentation and commercial launch of cocoa and coffee-based ingredients and products.

Management Commentary

Mitchell Scott, CEO of CULT Food Science, stated, "We are incredibly proud of California Cultured’s progress. This scale-up marks a major achievement in the food tech sector and exemplifies the type of impact-driven innovation CULT seeks to back. By unlocking scalable, ethical alternatives to traditionally resource-intensive commodities like cocoa, California Cultured is helping shape a more sustainable global food system. We look forward to supporting their continued success as they move closer to commercial launch."

https://www.thenewswire.com/press-releases/1AlpFvx5Z-cult-food-science-venture-arm-company-california-cultured-achieves-major-scale-up-mi

The other element is competition. There's quite a lot from companies using plant-based cacao alternatives like carob and seaweed, and while that may work for things like chocolate chip cookies, I doubt they would compete when it comes to chocolate itself. Celleste Bio does seem to be a serious competitor, however, but that's the only one I could find, and though there are probably others, California Cultured seems to be the most advanced in the US when it comes to regulatory approval and product launch. This article is a few months old, but still worth reading:

California Cultured, a plant cell culture company, is growing cocoa from cell cultures at a facility in West Sacramento, California, with plans to start selling its products next year. It puts cocoa bean cells in a vat with sugar water so they reproduce quickly and reach maturity in a week rather than the six to eight months a traditional harvest takes, said Alan Perlstein, the company’s chief executive. The process also no longer requires as much water or arduous labor.

“We see just the demand of chocolate monstrously outstripping what is going to be available,” Perlstein said. “There’s really no other way that we see that the world could significantly increase the supply of cocoa or still keep it at affordable levels without extensive either environmental degradation or some significant other cost.”

Cocoa trees grow about 20 degrees north and south of the equator in regions with warm weather and abundant rain, including West Africa and South America. Climate change is expected to dry out the land under the additional heat. So scientists, entrepreneurs and chocolate-lovers are coming up with ways to grow cocoa and make the crop more resilient and more resistant to pests — as well as craft chocolatey-tasting cocoa alternatives to meet demand.

The market for chocolate is massive with sales in the United States surpassing $25 billion in 2023, according to the National Confectioners Association. Many entrepreneurs are betting on demand growing faster than the supply of cocoa. Companies are looking at either bolstering the supply with cell-based cocoa or offering alternatives made from products ranging from oats to carob that are roasted and flavored to produce a chocolatey taste for chips or filling."

https://apnews.com/article/chocolate-cacao-lab-alternatives-climate-change-73904f71a086044fa55b0ea1a32cf84d

Https://www.statista.com/chart/32008/nvidia-vs-cocoa/

If they can scale and execute well and capture some of the total addressable market for cocoa products, then getting to a market cap of $1B seems entirely possible. Like for eggs and egg whites, I'm sure that the producers of chocolate want a more consistent supply at more predictable and less volatile prices. Here's what Grok has to say about the TAM for cocoa:

"Cocoa Beans Market: The global cocoa beans market was valued at approximately USD 23.39 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% to reach USD 27.92 billion by 2030. This market size reflects the trade in whole cocoa beans, which are the primary raw material for chocolate and cocoa-based products.

Broader Cocoa Products Market: The global cocoa products market, which includes processed products like cocoa butter, powder, and liquor, was valued at USD 24.5 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 30.2 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 3.1%.

Cocoa and Chocolate Market: When considering the combined cocoa and chocolate market, which includes wholesale trade and downstream products, the market size was estimated at USD 130 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to grow to USD 185 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 4.5%. This figure encompasses a broader scope, including finished chocolate products, but the wholesale cocoa component is a significant portion.

Cocoa Market (General): The global cocoa market, focusing on cocoa as a commodity (beans and primary derivatives), was valued at USD 16.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 26.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 4.7%. Another source estimates the cocoa market at USD 48.3 billion in 2022, growing to USD 79 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 5%."

CEO: "We’ve had overwhelming interest. Many of our partners and those that we’re looking to partner with, are ravenous for chocolate and we’re trying very hard to meet their demands. But we honestly see the demand is so great that even if we grow 1,000% year-over-year, we won’t be able to scratch the surface."

He also states they are in advanced converstations with many of the top 10 chocolate producers and suppliers. Aims to have products on the market mid Q2 to Q3 2026.

https://agfundernews.com/cocoa-minus-the-beans-california-cultured-plans-launch-in-2026

Are any institutional investors currently holding ANIC? Their "Major Shareholders" page just shows nominee companies. Perhaps one of these is acting as custodian for a large retail investor who is now selling, or its one of Agronomic's directors. Either way, unless you also want to sell, does it really matter what happens to the share price, in fact if you are still a buyer, you should be happy to see lower prices. I would be worried if there had been bad news at one or more of the portfolio companies. The opposite has been the case recently.

https://www.agronomics.im/investors/major-shareholders/

A 95% reduction in bioreactor costs and an estimated 98.5% reduction in the cost of the culture medium are impressive, but what really blows my mind, is that there's no reason to expect these cost curves to stop falling. What will happen to conventional chicken farming when costs decline another 90-something percent? Meatly have shown this isn't just a pipe dream, but reality. The production of pet food and chicken nuggets and probably other forms of protein are about to undergo radical channge:

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/meatly-pet-food-cost-of-lab-grown-cultivated-meat/

Production of Solein is scaling well. It's encouraging that if they can replicate the production parameters of Factory 01 at Factory 02, the latter will be operating at a profit. They already have Memorandums of Understanding, which if converted to binding agreements, would represent 50% of production at Factory 02: https://solarfoods.com/solar-foods-confirms-successful-100-fold-industrial-scaling-of-soleins-production-technology/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_m_9fgmALqaSdHw4dLBK-J1F03KY11DbJznSUp7jF62_i0EOmcLsHPvB7IEacPB5ZJVrwJT9nVsbhMUNW6QT7DtFitMECat03C-Gzh1ZC2x5nMjk8&_hsmi=363255067&utm_content=363255067&utm_source=hs_email

"Sydney-based All G claims it is forging a pathway to bring infant formula “dramatically closer to the nutritional gold standard of human milk” with breakthrough tech that forms human casein proteins into micelles, which are critical to the nutritional and functional benefits of breastmilk.

The startup, which plans to bring bovine lactoferrin to the market later this year followed by human lactoferrin in early 2026, has just filed a patent application for a formulation that includes five major human breast milk proteins made via precision fermentation: alpha-lactalbumin, lactoferrin, beta-casein, kappa-casein and serum albumin.

It is now talking to “multiple global infant formula companies” looking to develop products that more closely replicate human breast milk, said CEO Jan Pacas...

As for scalability, said Raynes, “Our strains are already cost-effective for human lactoferrin and human caseins. We have multiple commercial partnerships lined up covering major Asian markets, Europe, and the US. We expect to be in commercial scale bioreactors (around 50kl – 100kl) by Q4 this year."

https://agfundernews.com/all-g-assembles-human-casein-micelles-to-bring-infant-formula-dramatically-closer-to-breastmilk

"Dutch cultivated meat startup Mosa Meat has filed for regulatory approval in the UK, where it’s part of a government support scheme and teased its first burger all those years ago.

Twelve years after unveiling the world’s first cultivated beef burger in London, Mosa Meat has applied for regulatory approval to sell its beef fat ingredient in the UK.

The Dutch startup has filed the dossier with the Food Standards Agency, two months after joining the regulator’s cultivated meat ‘sandbox’ programme, which hosts eight firms looking to speed up the commercialisation of their products.

At the launch of the two-year scheme, the FSA indicated its goal to approve at least two products during this period. This means Mosa Meat’s cultivated beef fat, which can be blended with plant-based ingredients to make hybrid burgers, meatballs, and filling for cottage pie, could be on the market by 2027."

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/mosa-meat-lab-grown-meat-cultivated-beef-fat-uk-fsa-approved/

The market doesn't seem to care much about the NAV as we've been trading at a significant discount now for several months. I agree that it's good news that no performance fee was paid to Shellbay, but was a little surprised that there wasn't an uplift to the valuation of Liberation Labs. NEOM Investment Fund made a strategic investment in April, and although the conditions weren't disclosed this came on the back of the capital they raised earlier in the year to complete the Richmond facility, so a bit surprising to me that the valuation was unchanged.

Https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/artificial-intelligence-ai-alternative-protein-future-food-investment/

If Liberation Labs becomes profitable within 12 months of starting production as the CEO has stated, with only the first of the many factories it plans on building, then its stake in just this company alone should be worth more than ANIC's current market cap.

Interesting that until recently all of the Lieration Labs press releases talked about Letters of Intent: "Liberation Labs already has Letters Of Intent representing over 200% of the available capacity for the first 5 years of the Richmond facility's operations." This release is for a concrete deal. I wonder whether LL is sending out a message to potential customers that they better move beyond just expressing interest via a letter of intent if they want to secure their supply.