Member Info for Mumbo_Jumbo

Sang - You being the sophisticated investor will presumably keep buying all the down to the cash value of around 15p...

Phil - the wider sentiment in this sector has taken a hit. It’s put up or shut up time for many…. Keep an eye out for Evelo Biosciences, it’s up next for its readout.

The distressed seller is the who has bet on the success of the microbiome sector. And on the back of recent events, it has spectacularly failed. he’s limiting his exposure or getting out altogether from 4d whilst he can at a decent price.?

It wasn’t Woodford himself… it was another fund charged to liquidate all their positions.

The sector is in a downtrend….. need good news from readouts to reverse this.

Sentiment is a fickle beast.

Possibly, but more likely to stabilise it in a channel till their own readout.

Had a look at Evelo - thanks to Sang mentioning yesterday. It’s already tanked before the readout, mainly as a result of failures of others in the sector.

evelo has read out this quarter. if another one shows no efficacy, this will tank too.

Ok then currently Debt free with £28 million in the bank until they take the money from the credit facility. Never in favour of these types of companies opting for credit lines when their income is many years away in the future and success of the product is in doubt. On the face of it, may seem like great news and no dilution for shareholders, but series of bad news and breaking of the covenants, the creditors can almost walk away with the company or play havoc with the share price. Whats the timeline for paying this back?

Mcap is around £140 million, with £28 million intrinsic value and £112 million sentiment value priced in already. The sector failure (which as most of you know is not a surprise to me) will weigh down heavily on the sentiment value here. The intrinsic value will go down with passage of time depending on burn rate. Only real price driving news (and not poster presentations at conferences or publications) can keep up the high value already attached. In absence of this, one can argue that it will probably head towards the £50-£60 million cap range.

The only intrinsic value is the cash in the bank minus the burn rate. How much do they have?

Oxford nanopore has inherent limitations with their chemistry. It has high margin of incorrect base calling compare to illumina. Whoever is investing in Nanopore, directly with IPO or indrectly through others should keep this in mind.

Oxford nanopore may say there is a mutation in this gene, but it could be that it's a result of the sequencing technology rather than a real one.

Sanj - screening is a way of finding bacteria that meets your criteria. no bacteria is the same, more genetic diversity exists in species of bacteria than in humans. It is routine microbiology, granted now you can use the genomics to screen for loci that you think are important. Again, routine nowadays. 4d aren't engineering these strains as far as I can tell. OK, I will make it say for you, what novel things are they doing to these strains that enhances their native capability to produce certain metabolites/proteins?

sunny - you can patent ideas. I had a quick look... its all patenting strains and their potential uses.

Phil - I pointed out that you cannot compare apples to oranges. For the last time... penecillin is a product from the microbe, whereas 4ds biotherapeutics (what a fancy name for saying strains) is the microbe itself. The right comparison with 4d would be giving patients the fungus that produces penicillin and hoping they would recover from the infection.

Phil you conflated an extracted product with strain as a product.

They are not extracting a product and giving you that, it is infact the the whole organism, a bacterial species. Imagine someone taking Kefir, isolating the bacteria, making a pellet and trialing it out to help digestive issues on the basis that it has certain metabolites which might or might not help based on inferences from in vitro studies.

So where is the novelty by the company? The delivery mechanism or the discovery that a strain has a particular metabolite?

sang - last time I was here, you chose to run away. shall I reopen our discussion?

Phil,

You are not given the fungus that produces the penecillin and nor with E.coli that's engineered to produce Insulin.

Seems like you need to understand the very basic nature of their product here. It's why I keep asking where is the novelty.

Steve,

When I last posted here, sp I believe was around 120.
Nothing I posted then had any impact on the SP, nor will it in future.

I am highly sceptical on one species with it metabolites solving complex diseases.

Bacterial species to remedy all your ills….

How was this ever allowed to get this far and that too with other peoples money…….Sigh!!

As I said money months ago…. Where is the novelty here.

Shall we just declare you the winner and close the Sep competition already :-)

Ok thanks

Ahh ok. What’s the ball park figure they are claiming?

Interested to learn why you picked rkh for September.