Member Info for Muck165

Nice spot! Would have been nice to hear it from ABDX first though!

Evening Ant. Whilst ABDX published the results in October last year, the reality I think is that they have until the end of December to do it. So, we will get them any time from now until then. TBH though, I doubt the financials will tell us anything different to what we were told in the July TU -anything juicy would need to be RNS’d separately I think.

There is perhaps one exception relating to a deferred tax asset, but I don’t really understand the accounting principles behind it. Take a look at note 23 in last year’s accounts. My basic reading is that we have a DTA of just over £10m which we haven’t recognised as an asset because we haven’t had certainty over the extent and timing of future profits. If we did recognise it then it seems to me 2 things would happen;

1. Our balance sheet would be£10m better off

2. We would know the company reckons it’s moved into a period of sustained profitability.

Both would be positive things!

But as I say, I could be way off the mark there. Any accountants on here to put me straight!?

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/06475379/filing-history

If Vast need working capital funding post 7/10, what options do they have given they can’t raise at below nominal and haven’t got time to consolidate? Further debt at penal rates (if they can get any)?

Let’s hope some cash comes in…

Drawing a blank I’m afraid Ant. All I can say is everything coming out of ABDX and co at the moment centres on US expansion and EU CE marking. Make of that what you will.

If you want some light, I added a little bit more this morning!

A bit about Odelle

https://odelletechnology.com/about-us/

An observation here…

Earlier in this thread (8/4/24) I posted about a company called Odelle, which itself had posted about Upfront’s funding pitches.

They are a specialist and renowned consultancy company that helps MedTech, Biotech and IVD and DTX Diagnostics companies enter the public and private healthcare sectors across Europe.

Well Yates has posted about them again today, calling them Abingdons good friends. Interesting to seeLoop react to the post.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7244005189592969220-hLWL?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

The Alpha (and Mercuria) debt became due in May last year. Since then, the only finance option brought to the table has been from an unknown Swiss investor who wanted us to market their PGM, an activity we’ve now shelved.

The fact Vast have been unable to negotiate any other re-fi funding over the last 16 months, from the debt markets or otherwise, speaks volumes I think.

Honestly I think the lack of commercial news flow likely does owe to confidentiality restrictions placed on ABDX by its customers. If that is the case you can't necessarily criticise the company - all that's left to it is to put out vague breadcrumbs in the hope people will follow them, which is what it does.

But that said, those restrictions wouldn't prevent a simple trading update.

On the plus side, I think we have a lot of exciting and diverse irons in the fire. Upfront is definitely the one that excites me most. I also take great comfort at 3 institutions taking nearly 30% of the company at next to no discount , as well as CS and IVDeology accepting ABDX stock as sale consideration.

On the downside, neither Salistick nor Loop seem to be doing as well as I had hoped, Eco-Flo still hasn't launched, we get practically nothing about other products and projects to be excited about, and the Directors didn't participate in the raise even though they prepared the way to do so through CP changes.

Last year the final results were published mid October (although they have until end of the year to do it). If they do the same again, then that's not far away. Assuming they do an IMC presentation at the same time then I for one have a lot of questions to ask.

Honestly Ant, me too.

True. It’s frustrating, but I don’t really care. I’m not invested for a short term fix, but for the significant medium term gains I think will come. And I think they’ll come because of all the “interesting” stuff posted on here (demonstrating all the irons in the fire and their commercial potential), but which the company hasn’t publicly disclosed. We know it, most don’t. And there will be a lot more stuff still hidden from view.

But you can bet your bottom dollar that the 3 new II’s that bought in at 0.975 know what’s going on.

And a bit more…

Here’s another paper published a few weeks ago about the same malaria test product/research, which tells us the actual price of each PCRD cassette used - £2.93.

Interestingly, it also confirms TwistAmp as another commercial part of the test. That’s a DNA amplification product produced by TwistDx. TwistDx is part of Abbott.

ABDX are mixing with the big boys in this research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-71129-4

Just a bit more on this (if interested)

This independent paper from January evaluated 5 different tests for VL.

A NALFIA test was among them.

The paper confirms the NALFIA test used our PCRD product.

That test demonstrated the highest sensitivity, and highest specificity, of all 5 tests evaluated - (95.8/97.38). As the paper concludes, that is excellent performance. I have little doubt the actual test was the same one Yates posted about yesterday.

From everything I’ve read on this, the NALFIA test is being set up to replace current standard use diagnostics for VL (and possibly malaria) in endemic limited resource settings.

For us the point is that the test (s) uses PCRD. That is a standard buffer belonging to ABDX, and no doubt sold at a standard cost. If NALFIA takes off as next gen LFT testing then we might end up selling a lot of that product.

Worth noting that ABDX and Yates have put out various blogs and posts on the subject over the last few years. No wonder.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10813839/

But as Antloving points out, this is just interesting conjecture. We need news. Perhaps Yates posting about it yesterday indicates that might be coming. Or is that just wishful thinking.

Hi Teraferma

I've not come across Carus before, but its clear they and Abingdon are definitely collaborating. Good find!

I notice form the Carus website that their parent is the leading distributor of animal health products in Japan.

Goes to show, doesn't it, how valuable Linkedin is as a tool when looking at ABDX, and how many other collaborations there might be that we as shareholders are frustratingly unaware of.

I should say these are only my observations and thoughts. I think they’re reasonable, but they could be wrong.

It would just be nice if Yates could actually tell us if we’re involved in stuff like this, rather than leave LinkedIn breadcrumbs for us to follow!

Chris Yates posted this today.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7241359763589013504-mDoc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

He talks about the growing use of molecular (ie nucleic acid) lateral flow testing (NALFIA) and ABDX expertise in the area. Remember, our proprietary PCRD product is specifically designed for this, and NALFIA are, if you like, next generation LFT’s in terms of performance accuracy. He references this article;

https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011637#pntd.0011637.ref021

This is an article evaluating the performance of a NALFIA test to detect visceral leishmaniasis (the second largest parasitic killer in the world after malaria), which is almost always fatal if left undiagnosed/treated and which kills c30,000 each year globally.

His post is odd because the article is not recent - it was published 4 months ago. Why post about an obscure and”oldish” scientific paper unless ABDX have something to do with it.

There’s nothing in the paper to directly highlight any such involvement. However, the paper does say the test being evaluated follows on from earlier work to develop a NALFIA test for malaria and, in that respect, cites this paper;

https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12936-023-04496-4

The lead author is the same for both papers, but the malaria paper was also co-authored by Dr Ellen Withycombe. She was then, and remains, the ABDX Global Product Manager.

All this pieced together suggests that;

1. We are at the forefront of next generation NALFIA test development.

2. We are very likely involved in NALFIA test development for the two most prevalent and fatal parasitic diseases on the planet.

Thoughts I’d repost this - it’s the pitch deck that Upfront presented to prospective investors back in March. Lots of interesting stuff in it, including timelines to commercialisation.

https://www.enterprise.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/240305-Upfront-LVOne-full-deck-1.pdf

It is brilliant news Lucky.

But I’ve got to stop getting carried away. Loop got registration in March but still appear not to have sold anything yet.

But the really big difference here (IMHO), is IDAP participation. We have a very big customer just waiting in the wings. And our health service is unlikely to be the only global one interested.

So, something weird but very exciting has happened today - Pockit Diagnostics (AKA Upfront Diagnostics) and their LVOne test are now appearing on the public MRHA Medical Devices Register.

https://pard.mhra.gov.uk/device-details/Multiple%20stroke%20(cerebral%20vascular%20accident)%20marker%20IVD%2C%20kit%2C%20rapid%20ICT%2C%20clinical%26%26IVD%20General

That's really important, because registration is mandatory before you can market a product in the UK, and you don't get registration (at least on the public register) without providing various information including copies of your conformity assessment certificates, ie UKCA, amongst other things. More details are here;

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/register-medical-devices-to-place-on-the-market#when-you-must-register

The weird thing is that the registration date is showing as 3/2/23. Now, I have checked that database daily for the last year (sad I know) and I assure you that today is the very first time the Pockit entry has appeared. I don't know why the registration date is showing as effective from 18 months ago, but surmise it might have something to do with when they first started clinical trials of the product in real world scenarios.

I strongly suspect that the registration listing has only now been published because LVOne has only just been awarded EN ISO 13485:2016 Quality Management System (QMS) certification, something I have no doubt we assisted with. And is it coincidental that that QMS certification closely followed our own excellent BSI audit results?

Whatever the case, Upfront now appear to have a UK patent, UKCA, permission to market in the UK, and participation in IDAP as an accelerator into the NHS. Oh, and to top it, this particular test (which we definitely make) involves two separate LFT's - double bubble for us if you like.

I can't see it being very long at all ow before we see this being sold into the NHS. As I posted earlier, the cost savings involved in early stroke diagnosis are just huge.

As I say, this is really exciting news for ABDX (and its shareholders) in my opinion.

Ah - thanks for not shaming me ridiculously Icecool! Off to hang head in shame.

As I say, sorry if I’m being a div here! If I am, please ignore!