Member Info for Muck165

Yes, the article you posted is from 11/10. But the stuff that’s in it is simply a mix of the last RNS and an article published many months ago. There is nothing new.

Forgive me, but isn’t this piece just a rehash of the latest diamonds RNS and an article from many months ago (and which was posted on here)? There is nothing new in this latest story.

Just a little more on this, but ABDX now have a page on their site describing Abingdon Analytical.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/services/abingdon-analytical/

Well for me here’s some…

Significant II backing

Significant Director alignment

Run by a commercial manager, not a scientist

Huge spread of risk across customers, product and service

Significant increase in customer base over last 2 years

Significant increase in revenue over last 2 years, with excellent cost control

Fully expanded service suite

Widening market access through expansion into world’s biggest mkt.

Massive and growing mkt

General drive to decentralised healthcare

High automated manufacturing capability

Knowledge leaders in the space

Fee for service model, so no development risk

Relationship with top tier domestic retailers

Relationship with govt (100 day mission)

Growing business

I understand the current sentiment and share it some extent - it’s especially difficult to back a company that won’t tell us how many current projects it has, or what they are. But I do think we’re extremely well positioned, well run, and have a large and diverse addressable market. I have faith at the mo, which I think is justified, although that’s been knocked a little by 2 recent examples of mgmt slipperiness (telling us in an RNS that the cash element of the CS acquisition was to come from existing cash, then in the same RNS raise cash to replace it, and suggesting Eco-Flo was on track when it’s clearly missed launch targets).

Call me an idiot, but I’m still buying when I can here.

Why, when sentiment is weak? Because oftentimes, when you believe in the fundamentals, that’s the best time to do so.

And I have to say that “distribution agreements” whilst positive, isn’t as positive as “sales”.

Good spot Ant

It’s actually a few things they’ve changed.

First U.K. “distribution agreements” this quarter. Previously it said initial U.K. “sales” Q2 2024

CE mark pushed back to Q1 next year. Previously Q4 2024.

Other things like trials, marketing, market penetration have all been pushed back.

My take is this perhaps indicates they’re close to U.K. distribution agreements but not sales (yet), and everything else is delayed a bit.

So progressing, but not as quick as they’d liked.

Loop have been voted Best Start Up at Startup Ole Salamanca.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/startupoleaccelerator_startup-startupolaez-salamanca-activity-7252692108136845313-uzpn?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

No idea how good that is, but the event said it would have over 20,000 attendees. Whatever, winning awards smacks of potential not difficulty at Loop.

ABDX have posted pictures of work starting on the new US lab.

ABDX have posted about a 2 day workshop ABDX and Cytiva have co-hosted. Nina G gave a couple of presentations, and Mark Jones at least one. The point here, I think, is that Cytiva are certainly recognised as a global leader in LFT and Immunoassay development, so we’re now playing at the top table.

Morrama posted this on their site last week

https://www.morrama.com/latest/impact-report-2024

It’s a good thing that of the 29 projects they’re working on, they give particular focus to just 3, including Eco-Flo, in the piece.

In that focus they highlight the significant benefit of Eco-Flo, but then say; “Unfortunately, the previous launch date of Summer 2024 has been missed. Our goal for the next year is to launch our first commercial units with our partner Abingdon Health.”

I’m not surprised by that, but I am annoyed because in the IMC presentation Yates/Hand gave every indication everything was on track because they’re now able to “show” samples to customers “which is what we said we would do”, but they were still evaluating.

But that not how I read the RNS announcing the collaboration last year - I read it that ABDX would have a sustainable cassette ready FOR USE” by September 2024.

It would now appear Morrama agree, and that target has been missed.

It’s no biggie in itself. What annoys me is that Hand/Yates were (IMO) disingenuous about it in the presentation. I have a lot of faith in the mgmt…….but trust takes time to earn and is easily lost.

I have to remember, though, that they also said they’ve had “a lot” of interest in it from customers. I bought a few more today to tuck away.

For anyone interested, pages 151-163 of this Clifford Chance piece gives a detailed commentary on Romanian insolvency law.

https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/briefings/2019/07/a-guide-to-restructuring-and-insolvency-procedures-in-europe.pdf

My own view is that AP likely filed for insolvency because he was required to (because Vast Baita was insolvent), not because of the fluff reasons he put out in the RNS. True, proposing a re-organisation plan was something he was entitled to do, but the primary purpose of that isn’t to enable a mass sacking of staff, but to get creditors back there money in a planned and agreed way. Currently a lot of the legal actions from trade creditors have been suspended, but the next hearing in the insolvency matter is on 14/11 and I suspect we’ll either see agreement to a plan, a kick down the road allowing more time to negotiate a plan, or. refusal and a move into bankruptcy.

There are loads of trade creditors who want what’s owed, not least the tax authorities who, we should remember, had already agreed a payment plan that Vast welched on.

If any cash comes into Vast, there will be plenty of people fighting over it.

AP has lots of stones in his shoe. Juggling might be a better profession for him than CEO.

Not much Asher. Don’t believe a word AP says and hate the way he puts out vague fluffy news when he needs cash. The diamonds have been a very useful carrot for him to dangle, at least in my view.

But, I can easily afford to lose the little I have in here and, whilst I think it more likely than not the company is screwed, for all his many faults AP is (I understand) a tenacious little sod with decent Romanian connections and so may well scrape through somehow. At the moment I think we’re the smaller stone in his shoe - Mr Albulescu is, however not someone I think he’d want to see annoyed for long.

One thing I’d add is that Loop are targeting a CE mark this quarter, which would open up the Spanish market they originally intended to launch in, and had buyers in. But then they first have to get it, and thereafter (I think) would need to get Septiloop registered for sale in Spain. Of course a CE mark also opens up the rest of the EU.

FWIW, if the article is true then I think RP is basically trying to say the diamonds RNS we got was a disgraceful piece of misinformation to bump the SP, and is calling Cornish out for allowing it.

But then of course I have no idea if the article is complete, accurate or true. And even if it is, it’s only RP’s view.

Maybe, maybe not.

He apparently finished his email (according to the article) with “ AIM is a cesspool and a disgrace to the financial sector of the UK”.

Noting he is involved with at least two other AIM companies I’m aware of.

I’m not going to copy and paste it, but to paraphrase the article basically says;

RP sent his email to AIM Regulation, copying “Fatty” Cornish (NOMAD).

In it he said;

- his Zim contacts tell him it’s extremely unlikely Vast will get the diamonds back

- he believes they’re still in Zimbabwe because the RBZ asked him to collect them, but the legal system overruled them

- If recovered, proceeds of sale would need to go back to Zim, with part converted to local currency and only useable in Zimbabwe. Any balance would take ages to get to Vast.

Only posting for info. No idea if any of it’s true or not. People can make up their own minds!

Understandable disappointment here which fundamentally owes, at least I think, to lack of manufacturing traction.

We have built our developer customer base massively over the last 2 years, and put all the bits in place to offer them a full service targeting commercial success. That strong foundation should also attract more custom.

We are just not seeing products achieve the commercial success we hoped for, at least yet. Of what we know is in manufacturing, Salistick seems to be stuttering, Loop have no orders, and FOFH has got to get reg approvals before going anywhere. Upfront remains the exciting one simply because they are very close to orders and have a very large ready made customer who want it, and that’s been heavily involved in the test development from the start.

But apart from the latest set of Upfront trial results (hopefully this quarter) I can’t really see anything happening on that front until early next year.

TBH I suspect we’re in for a quiet quarter. Yates will be busy in the US. We may get a CFO/NED appointment - the NED will be far more interesting, particularly if they have lots of US connections.

Then we’ll get the Jan TU, which may be difficult to compare to prior periods because revenue will be inflated by CS and Ivdeology. But I’m expecting a weaker period than H2 2024, albeit hoping for a better period than H1 2024.

We may I suppose get some news on more products going into Boots.

Ultimately this is a waiting game. A couple of years ago we had very little in manufacturing (PocketDX, Zoetis etc), but since then we know Salistick, Loop, Upfront and 4xFOFH STI tests are now there and as time moves forward that number will only increase. I refuse to believe that we won’t get manufacturing traction as this happens.

Well, it says it’s 3x more sensitive than the leading competitor, PCT.

But I’ll admit ignorance here. From everything I’ve read there are a number of ways developers are trying to diagnose. PCT May be the best direct comparable to the way Loop does it, by testing the bodies immune response (I think), but other tests, like Intellisep do it differently.

Whatever, 3x better is great, as is the 10x faster (and no doubt cheaper) when compared to PCT. But given the dire need for early, accurate, fast and cheap sepsis diagnostics, if Septiloop is so great then it begs the question, why has it had no orders since becoming commercial in March?

I still have high hopes for it but, as I say, I don’t know how well it compares to other sepsis tests which may be doing things differently.

Agree Brighty. They’re growing ABDX in an almost identical way to Cozart before they sold it, ie through acquisition and geographic expansion. But that, if I remember, was predominantly a drugs of abuse testing company - I think we have many more strings to our bow.

I think the best impact of todays RNS will perhaps be to tweak the interest of the wider market and to stick us more on people’s radar.

For those with the inclination (!), Yates posted this interesting scientific piece which briefly describes the workings and history of LFA’s, along with current research areas/advancements.

Boiling it all down, if it can be possible to increase sensitivity, and still maintain all the other advantages of an LFA (particularly cost), then that “could be revolutionary”. Lateral Flow 2.0 if you like.

That’s not going to come in the short term, but there is certainly a wealth of research being applied to achieve it and so, at some point, it’s likely to happen.

https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9059/12/10/2268