Member Info for Muck165

Worth looking at timings here as well.

For a while the Swiss investor was to be the white knight. On 23/9 we were told that in view of the continuing delay and uncertainty , “the Company has commenced alternative measures for settling the outstanding debts and also to provide additional short-term working capital for the Group”.

Then a few weeks later we get news of a potential historic claim settlement.

For me there’s a very real chance we’ve agreed a bad settlement because we had no other choice. Equally though, if we have agreed a settlement which can satisfy Alpha then that’s no bad thing!

Well, that’s your view Sharebel. Mine is different.

I was interested when you said “ the company have stated they are then able to retrieve the historic parcel”. Can you point me to the bit in the RNS that’s says that? As far as I can see, all it says is “ Accordingly, the fully executed settlement agreement is currently awaited to enable the Company to complete the process of recovery”.

To me that means recovery of whatever settlement has been agreed, which may or may not include some or all of the diamonds.

All we know (or at least we’ve been told) is that terms of a a settlement have been agreed with the AG in relation to the historic claim. Some take that to mean the settlement will now definitely be concluded, but I think history tells us that may be unwise. Equally some think it means we’ll get all the diamonds, but personally I doubt that. The clue is in the word “settlement”.

What I do know is that these rampastic threads talking of a minimum £50m value are dangerous and laughable.

The only pertinent facts are that AP needs cash, and the “settlement” news has raised the price to a level where he may get a placing away. Unless cash comes in soon (which it may) from the 2nd Hanes agreement then I can’t see any other option but a raise.

You’d hope Ant…

There certainly money in rapid Sepsis testing. US company Cytovale has a test (Intellisep) which got FDA clearance in 2022, and since it started to be used in 2023 it’s raised $184m in financing.

So there is absolutely a market for it. I just don’t know how crowded it is, or how good Septiloop is when compared to other tests in that market.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/cytovale-gains-momentum-100m-its-sepsis-screening-test

Just a bit more on Uofront

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gonzaloladreda_timeislife-bnew2024-healthcareinnovation-activity-7247527830941569024-IzW6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

"We’re thrilled to announce that Upfront Diagnostics has been recognised as a top 5 finalist in the prestigious BNEW - Barcelona New Economy Week Health Awards!"

I don't know how big a thing this is, but the reaction to the post suggests its meaningful.

Not really Lucksin. All the questions were posed in the hope of getting something juicy on the commercial front, but nothing was really forthcoming.

I suppose the positives were;

We were told that the 4 FOFH tests we know about have moved through into manufacturing, although anything commercial there will have to wait for regulatory approvals. ABDX are helping on that front.

We were told that ABDX is in fact working on 3, and not just one other test with FOFH. No further details were given.

CY explained that the £2m value ABDX attributed to FOFH when investing through a fee waiver owed to the significant prior spend incurred by that company and milestones reached (like tech transfer).

There was enthusiasm about FOFH given the market size, and our impending expansion into the US.

If you haven't watched the presentation both it, and the Q&A's are on the investor meet company site. You just need to register , search for the company, and you can watch it all, or just listen to the Q&A's.

For info - I asked lots of questions prior to, and during the IMC presentation.

Most were asked, and answered. Some weren’t. The moderator explained that this owed to commercial sensitivities.

The 2 questions I asked that weren’t dealt with were;

Can you update us on our partnerships with Senzo and Bimelix?

Have we received any commercial manufacturing orders for Septiloop?

Make of that what you will.

I’d like to just post the broker note, but I can’t. So here’s the only other things which might be of interest.

Zeus are forecasting;

Revenue

2025 -£8.6m

2026 - £12.6m

2027- £15.9m

Adjusted EBIT

2025 - (£1.5m)

2026 - £0.6m

2027- £2.4m

They say “ABDX is well funded throughout the forecast period and cash generative from FY 2026”.

Remember though that current year revenue will include Ivdeology and CS revenue.

Last year CS did £2.7m. I don’t know about Ivdeology.

Given ABDX did £6.1 this year, an £8.6m current year forecast doesn’t look as good as it might seem.

I only got access by subscribing to research tree. I posted highlights on another thread. The rest of the note doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know.

Zeus are forecasting

FY2024-2027 revenue CAGR of 37%

Topline revenue for current year of £8.6m (up wards revision from £8.1m)

Based on peer group analysis and using forecast next 12 month revenue, currently value the business at £24m (12.4p per share)

They say growth prospects and current expansion profile are not being recognised.

As I say Terry, I understand your frustration.

I also suspect that will continue during Q2 because if things follow historic patterns I’m not sure what RNS’s will come before the Jan TU beyond a further award of LTIP options, appointment of a CFO/NED, confirmation we’ve opened a US office, and the AGM notice.

Let’s hope I’m wrong and we get something juicy.

I get that sentiment Terry. I share it to some extent.

But the results weren’t a surprise at all - we were told what they’d be in July.

I’m disappointed though because it’s become clear Salignostics aren’t in any hurry to reach new territories, we were told that AppDx is STILL in the development phase, it will be a while yet before FOFH gets approval to sell its tests, we have no real idea what’s in the pipe or how large that is, and to be frank the Directors seem steadfast in refusing to disclose much if any real commercial news that could shift the SP upwards.

Like many I was hoping for a reveal of some kind, but none was forthcoming beyond US expansion plans. Everything seems always within touching distance yet always just out of reach. Like you say, a feeling of jam tomorrow.

The thing is I still have confidence we’ll get the jam given all the foundations in place. I do believe in the mgmt, who are very aligned with shareholders. I’m comforted by the significant II backing. I do believe we’re knowledge leaders and that our full service suite is highly attractive. I know the market is massive. I am truly excited by Upfront, which now seems pretty close to commercialisation. And I do think ultimately we’ll grow a diverse mix of annuity manufacturing revenue.

I’m exactly the same as you though - I’ll continue to hold. If truth be told though, I’ll expect I’ll add more because the drag on the SP at the moment owes more to current sentiment than it does to what I think are strong business fundamentals at this stage of the turn around journey.

No problem Ant - they're just my views and there's no saying their right or wrong, just like everyone else.

Ant - my take differs a little to Wyn.

First off, these are results are to June 30th. We already had the figures from the July TU, so there was nothing new really. Interesting then that when the TU was released we saw a c10% increase in the SP to around 11.50 yet now, when the same figures are released, we fall to 9.

The only significant things that have happened in the interim are the acquisitions and the raise. And on that point, whilst I agree the company said there would be no need for a raise it wasn't done to keep the lights on (ie we didn't need to do it), but to fuel growth. We are already seeing that money being put to use with a new Analytical company and lab, and US expansion.

And if we are cash positive for this year, it will be the first full year we've done it.

I tend to agree with Greend100 - some people may have been expecting a quick buck when the reality is that this is going to be a bit of a longer play, and it is likely true that H1 won't be as great as H2 last year. As Wyn says, we all agree we now have great foundations . We offer a full suite of services. EcoFlo will both generate and attract business. We are widening our geographical reach into the main US market. And we do have some great products in the pipe.

The disappointment for me here remains the general lack of manufacturing traction. True, some products like Salistick have to break into a crowded and established market, which is tough as Wyn says. But we have other products which do not face the same headwinds.

All these developers, and those that fund them, don't spend years spending money and taking risk to fail. Some will, some won't. That's why its important we have lots of different customers doing lots of different things.

That’s absolutely true Brin, but I for one am certainly hoping that at some point we will be using that capacity and making tens of millions of tests to order. That is, after all, what all the foundations we’re laying are targeting.

Upfront remains the most promising near term thing for me.

I think my point really is that in Jan he disclosed we had 29 ongoing projects. If he could disclose that in Jan, I struggle to see why he can’t disclose the number now.

But yes - we’ve built the foundations, we’re expanding geographically, projects are coming through the pipe, we’ve beefed up reg services to hopefully accelerate approvals, and I remain utterly convinced that our commercial manufacturing levels will rise steadily from here, generating the valuable varied annuity underpin Yates has talked about.

And honestly, it’s that underpin which I think will improve shareholder value.

I listened to it PW.

TBH I've been left a little gloomier. Yes, the company continues to lay all the foundation stones in to build something big, and they seem to be doing that very successfully. With the investment in analytical we really are in a position to offer pretty much everything a developer might want with high levels of expertise, and I was pleased to hear about the high interest levels in Eco-Flo.

But I wasn't overly encouraged by the fact that we are using nowhere near our current manufacturing capacity, and nor was I that pleased that Yates wouldn't divulge the number of projects we have in the pipe.

So, we have the ability to make lots of money. We just aren't yet.

Well, the accounts disclose that current cash is expected last beyond 12 months from the signing of the accounts. So nothing immediate to worry about.

I think that’s a little unfair Wyn. Remember, these are full year accounts to June, and we only achieved positive cash flow in Q4 of that FY. To understand if we’ve maintained it we will have to wait until the next TU which should be Dec/Jan, unless Yates gives more away this morning.

But in all honesty I wouldn’t be surprised to see us slip back to negative in H1 this year given Yates has always explained that revenues are always weighted to H2.

I do, agree, however, that decent manufacturing orders are ultimately what the business needs.

Overall I look at the direction of travel, and for me that remains very positive.