Member Info for Muck165

The fact they are developing an AMR test (along with others) is confirmed in this from earlier this month

https://www.senzo.com/newsroom/senzo-secures-an-additional-18m-investment-for-its-novel-rapid-home-test-diagnostic-platform

We may of course have bod all to do with it, but then again we may.

Just an observation, but Senzo have been posting very heavily about Anti Microbial Resistance over the last week (every day).

I can’t see any reason why they would do that unless they have developed, or are developing, a test which can identify it.

Like I say, just an observation - they may not, and we may not be involved even if they are.

But if they are, then that’s an extremely big market dealing with what is generally recognised as the silent, or next pandemic, and it would be great for ABDX to be involved.

Nope - personally I don’t understand it.

We’ve turned the tanker towards being cash flow positive, have a strong pipeline, are in a growing market, don’t need cash, have some exciting short term prospects, and a low free float.

Apart from the small buy from Hand though, it doesn’t look like there’s been more Director purchases, which is a little weird given the effort they must have gone to to break up the concert party.

While I’m at it…..!

- The tests only have an 8 month shelf life - see the manufacture date and expiry date on the tests in the pic here - https://loopdx.com/. So if they have 15,000, they will I’m sure be looking for approval ASAP in order to avoid wasting them!

- The potential market for these is massive.

I suppose on the flip side and for balance, we have no guarantee results will be good, that it will be approved, or that it will find a market. Personally I think that unlikely but it’s nonetheless a risk.

Just for my own clarity of thought, here’s some things we know about Loop;

- We know they are a CDMO client.

- We know that the first “industrial” batch of the test was produced 4 months ago, by us (Loop put out a post at the time, confirming all this). According to the latest blog, this would be the final part of the scale up phase or beginning of the TT phase.

- we know they currently have 15,000 units ready to sell pending MRHA registration; see https://www.abc.es/economia/solucion-dar-segundo-ventaja-sepsis-20231016195340-nt.html (Google translate needed!). Given the latest blog, that must mean TT is fully complete, and was (at latest) complete before 16/10 when the linked article was written.

- That means Loop have had stock required to do trials and advance reg approval for a while.

- They are looking to publish trial results this quarter.

- They’re off to MEDICA in 2 weeks

-They are looking for UKCA approval by the end of the year

-Abdx feel confident enough about Loop to cite them in the results. Would they do that if they thought it had no prospects?

-Directors are buying. Indeed, they changed the CP to allow that shortly after the first industrial batch was produced.

Just my own thoughts - make of it (if anything!) what you will.

Thanks, I think I understand…if AP says somethings black, what he really means is it’s white. You just need to know how his mind works.

Keep spinning ASI - I’m afraid we will never agree!

Lol Bill - doubt we will get anything of course.

Just one other thing to note I suppose, which is that Loop have been plastering their inaugural attendance at Medica in mid November all over their linkedin pages. Again, would be nice for them to go there with some published results to tout!

ASI - from the relevant RNS

"Therefore, additional headroom is being requested to ensure that in the event that the realisation of the Company’s historic claims – referred to in the Company’s announcement of 15 May 2023 – is not achieved prior to 30 June 2023, or such later date as may be agreed with Alpha and Mercuria, the Company can demonstrate that it has an alternative method of meeting its obligations thereto as well as meet its ongoing corporate and other costs."

" The new equity share capital for which authority is sought in order to demonstrate the ability to repay Alpha and Mercuria will only be issued in the event that the obligations to Alpha and Mercuria cannot be met out of the realisation of the historic claims referred to above"

Sorry, but I find it difficult to agree with your "spin" on this, even though I agree that "Continuation of the companies activities culminating in stronger production gives re-assurance to lenders". Put bluntly, the company sought and obtained the authority for one very express purpose, and then used it for another.

ABDX put this out earlier today.

Its useful to have all the CDMO phases laid out, but often ABDX put these things out just prior to news of some description which is linked.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/lft-development-key-process-milestones-explained/

All conjecture I know, but the timing of this would link nicely with Loop clinical trial results which are expected soon.

We did ASI, bur very much on the basis that the authority was needed to give re-assurance to lenders. It has instead been used for other purposes leaving us entirely reliant on other means to repay it and in a weaker re-negotiation position.

Where have we heard that before..

According to the roadmap on their site, in Q4 Loop are aiming for;

1. Clinical Trial Results

2. Methodology and clinical trial result publications

3.Technical file submission for CE marking

4. UKCA Mark

Thats a lot to get through in the next 9 weeks or so, so much so that they may already have the results for publication shortly. If that’s the case, then they will also hit a sweet spot in the news with Sepsis high on the agenda following the Health Ombudsman’s damning report about it last week.

If Directors are buying, perhaps this is why?

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-10-25/lessons-not-being-learned-from-sepsis-failings-ombudsman-warns#

And now we have another 226,581 trade posed at 9.41 at 10p. Its weird - none of these large trades a budging the price at all, up or down.

Thanks Bill. So a Director could buy over 3/4 days and make a single notification at the end?

Would be wonderful if it was a Director buying!

A question if you don’t mind - if a Director wants to, for example, buy £1m of stock, but does so over a period of days or even weeks, do they have to declare each purchase or can they wait until all £1m has been invested and make a single declaration then? I only ask because there’s been a few sizeable transactions over the last few days, which may well be Directors, yet no RNS. Could of course be non directors I accept.

Agree Bill

2 possible Q4 pieces of news that could move the SP are, imo, FDA approval of Salistick and clinical test results and UKCA approval of the Loop Sepsis test. We may also see some trial results on the Upfront stroke test.

Personally I’m more excited about those last 2, purely because I think they both address a significant unmet need and have significant commercial potential.

The thing here is that the business is currently taking a low risk, some might say boring, approach as it repositions itself, and that’s not the kind of business that attracts attention. But it has a low free float, real Director alignment, addresses a growing market, and is a leader in its field. Couple all that with what I see as a move towards decentralised healthcare and the need to reduce healthcare costs and improve efficiency, and we only need one diamond product to see the SP fly

Just my view but like you say, patience will be needed.

I'm seeing more and and more about the "Silent Pandemic" - Anti Microbial (Biotic) Resistance. Our Coris acquisition seems like a clever play to me...

https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/26-10-2023-countries-in-the-who-european-region-commit-to-action-on-antimicrobial-resistance-by-endorsing-a-new-european-roadmap

We’ve often seen ABDX put out blogs closely related to products they’re working on, and shortly thereafter confirm the same. They did it with Vatic, Senzo, Morrama, Salistick and Hormona.

So this latest Folium test, which is a molecular test, fits perfectly with this blog ABDX put out at the end of last month.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/combining-molecular-and-lateral-flow-game-changing-innovation/

Another string to the bow, and at the forefront of the tech.

Correct link here!

https://foliumscience.com/2023/10/25/folium-science-launches-rapid-lateral-flow-test-for-the-detection-of-salmonella/