Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

Normally a sign that something is afoot and about to be announced based upon my experience.

The price action today suggests something is up too.

Much

Yup 20 year sunset clause!

So he first appeared for me when I was a holder of Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) during the big drills in the south.

It always struck me that Borgo meant well and had access to some information which was possibly real time during the drill. Problem is that as we all know, drills are fraught with risk and can go horribly wrong eg oil turning into water over night!

Borgo… is that you. Is it really you@?Are you really back for the next roll of the dice?

I thought you’d overdosed on Châteauneuf and dancing girls but seems like you pulled through :)

Much

Really?

The £700m repayment of the Telegraph money already provisioned for, that will be written back in doesn’t ring a bell?

These prices are absolutely crazy. Ether the banking sector is about to collapse or Lloyds and they peers are the bargain of the century.

If the shares stay at these levels and they buy back £2bn or 4bn shares a year for the next 10 years, there will be just 20 bn shares in issue valuing Lloyds at just £8bn or one years profits. Yes folks a PE of 1.

If they then stop the buyback and pay a dividend of £2bn (share buy back money plus £1.6bn current dividend) that's £3.6bn to be distributed to 20bn shares. That's a div of 18p and a yield of just under 50% and EPS of 40p.

If you can afford to hang on in here for a few years suggest you do.

One day Rodney ......

All very positive and worth a listen.

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Clearly things are going very well and are set to get even better due to the re-hedging of the Non Interest bearing current account balances.

Surplus capital build is ripe for distribution for the year end results.

If the buy back was paid as a dividend it would be 3 p higher and the yield would be 13%……

Can't believe that a journo would write an article like this and completely overlook the fact that they are also now putting £2bn into share buy backs rather than dividends when comparing with 2019.

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/spotted-lloyds-banking-shares-warning-053049295.html

Does he not realise that if the £2bn was instead paid as dividends the div would be 6p and the dividend yield would be over 9%?

Shocking.... give me strength...

My bets are on 1p interim and possibility another additional £1bn H2 in buy backs.

Last year they had to put £2.2bn in the final salary pension pot but that's complete now so could free up the extra money to keep the buy back going this year whilst the price is in the forties.

Thanks for this Asberger. Really interesting.

My betting is that they announce that they are going to undertake a further £1bn of buybacks in H2 of this year and in doing so will have the number of shares in issue down to circa 62 bn by the next full year results.

The share buy back has boosted EPS by 13% and the market cap keeps falling as a result. Effectively this share is becoming cheaper and cheaper.

If you hypothesise and imagine that the share buy backs continue and that the market refuses to send the stock higher, assuming share buy backs of £2bn a year and the cancelling of 4 billion shares per annum, in 15 years you would reach a point whereby there were just 2 billion shares left in issue.

At 50 p the market cap would be £1bn and EPS would be £4.50 a share (based upon profits of £9bn pa) and the yield would be 200% based upon the current dividend of circa £2bn.

My point is that whilst it might take some time, the buy back is doing its work and at some point and in order to prevent the crazy scenario that I have been describing happening, the shares will start to head significantly higher.

Lloyds is s one for the patient, however it will eventually deliver.

Thanks for that useful piece of insight Bonefish. Suggest your second posting is in Q1 next year in recognition of Navitas ‘ confirmed support for the project through FID and the formality of Italy losing their appeal.

Was your user name by chance originally Bonehead and perhaps auto corrected to Bonefish?

Assuming

If the banks fear a windfall tax, they'll simply up the provisions to keep the profits down until this all passes...... happy to hold through this. Potential to buy back and cancel 12 bn shares over the next 3 years and increase EPS by over 20%.

Meanwhile the dividends will keep flowing giving div coverage .. I think the market is over estimating the downs side and under estimating the income boost from NII.

Yes .. was thinking the same .. really odd.....

Agree LT.

Effectively they are now in contempt.

When someone is judge and jury it is never a wise move to p**s them off.

Steve… bad advice. Selling the share triggers an instant capital gains tax on any profit over £6000 of 10% if you’re a basi rate tax payer and 20% if you pay the higher rate.

The way around this is to exercise the option in certificated format then compete your ISA provider’s forms and hey presto, no CGT.

https://www.gov.uk/tax-employee-share-schemes/transferring-your-shares-to-an-isa#:~:text=You%20must%20transfer%20your%20shares,information%20on%20how%20to%20transfer.

Exactly LTI .. number of share in issue falling daily and profits set to breach £9bn this year. Imagine all those hedged Current Account balances dropping off low interest rates and onto 4 or even 5% .. same with mortgages.

The returns to shareholders are going to be off the scale....

Welcome back Borgo.

You’ve been missed…. bring on the dancing girls!

Much :)

I’m pretty sure that failure to pay the debt or put the money in an escrow account is effectively a sovereign default ie a failure by the ROI to meet its debts when they become due

Could have some pretty expensive and nasty repercussions for Italy if they don’t cough up me thinks.

Coming weeks are going to be fascinating….